United States of America

Israel’s war is a risk and opportunity for Saudi

31 Oct 2023

Hamas’s attacks complicate Mohammed bin Salman’s aim to build relations with the Israeli state, Gulf expert Kristian Coates Ulrichsen says in this Exchange podcast. But if the Saudi crown prince can use his leverage to help Palestinians, it may help his image at home and abroad.

Big government will drive the next market cycle

31 Oct 2023

Politicians are at their most interventionist in decades. Though a return to the stagnant, centralised economies of the 1970s is unlikely, subsidies and inflation will influence asset values. Fund managers need to pick investments that may benefit from the state’s visible hand.

Biden AI plan is one step in avoiding crypto trap

30 Oct 2023

The president’s new executive order aims to set regulatory guardrails for artificial intelligence. It still leaves a big hole for Congress to fill. Failing to set coherent rules risks the kind of piecemeal enforcement that hobbled crypto, but for a technology with higher stakes.

US oil deals create big fish in vast ocean

30 Oct 2023

Exxon’s $60 bln deal for Pioneer and Chevron’s $53 bln Hess offer will make the giants even bigger. But they will only have 12% of US petroleum production and 5% of global share. Success depends on higher commodity prices. Big Oil may not control as much as it wants.

Smithfield US homecoming looks like pig in a poke

30 Oct 2023

China’s biggest pork firm may relist its US unit in New York. With $7.6 bln in market cap, investors don’t seem to attach much value to its 2013 buy. Moving West is a hedge against geopolitics, but a revaluation is unlikely if the Washington-Beijing relationship remains fraught.

Hedge fund battle turns mountain into molehill

27 Oct 2023

Daniel Och is backing a $720 mln sale of Sculptor, the investment firm he founded, after buyer Rithm raised its bid again. The extra $15 mln he gets seems out of proportion to his rage against earlier terms. Maybe sweating the small stuff is what makes millionaires billionaires.

Influencer model infects US political fundraising

27 Oct 2023

The US House elected a speaker after four people gave it a try. The chaos partly reflects how politicians now receive support. Social media enables them to reach voters without the backing of their party. The new way to create star power will disrupt politics as it has Hollywood.

Greenhill starts Mizuho with costly culture clash

27 Oct 2023

Scott Bok runs the M&A boutique, but also chairs the board of trustees at UPenn, where a fight over antisemitism has erupted. The Japanese bank is paying him generously to help its takeover plan thrive. A campus backlash led by Apollo’s boss threatens to exact a heavy price, too.

Stellantis’ China deal maths may amplify US woes

27 Oct 2023

CEO Carlos Tavares is paying up to speed up his green push. At 4.4 times sales, the $1.6 bln deal values Chinese upstart Leapmotor more richly than larger EV peers. Splurging on a rival in the People’s Republic is also a bad look as he negotiates tense pay talks with US workers.

Japan Inc is only winner in nixed chip deal

27 Oct 2023

The collapse of Kioxia-Western Digital merger talks is bad for the two struggling companies, complicates Bain’s exit strategy and highlights investor-rival SK Hynix’s conflicts. But Tokyo now seems more open to cross-border deals, even for national champions. That’s a positive.

Cooled auto hotheads give labor disputes hope

26 Oct 2023

Ford Motor’s new union agreement could cost $2 bln in pay rises. That stings, but is well short of earlier asks while also recompensing workers. Much about the agreement seems reasonable. As labor pressures continue, the agreement suggests sensible outcomes are possible.

Wall Street’s glum rainmakers deserve more love

26 Oct 2023

Income from dealmaking is moribund; trading revenue is lumpy. No wonder investors in firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs promote the relative appeal of less temperamental businesses like wealth management and credit cards. Before long, though, what’s down may be up again.

Real big energy: Exxon and Chevron swim upstream

26 Oct 2023

The two US oil titans unveiled acquisitions worth more than $100 bln combined within weeks of each other. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what’s powering the renewed consolidation push, as well as the threats posed to the industry by a greener market.

Europe’s oil majors are stuck as M&A party-poopers

26 Oct 2023

Exxon Mobil and Chevron’s respective decisions to double down on oil have put European peers Shell, BP and Total on the spot. Yet their lower valuations complicate share deals. The most obvious big targets for lower-carbon M&A are invitingly cheap, but look hard to get at.

Morgan Stanley CEO shift pleases all, thrills none

26 Oct 2023

Ted Pick is an easy choice: steeped in markets, long-serving and unlikely to upset James Gorman’s strategic direction. Promotions for two CEO also-rans may keep the handover civil. It’s an utterly underwhelming transition which – given Wall Street’s record – is a good thing.

Meta tenuously clings to financial reality

26 Oct 2023

Facebook’s owner grew quarterly revenue 23% and vowed to keep expenses in check. AI investments and a planned hiring spree may yet run into an economic slump, however, and reverse an ad rebound. Only then will boss Mark Zuckerberg’s power of self-restraint become clear.

Hess deal would be higher-octane with cash added

25 Oct 2023

The takeover target’s rich valuation grants it a chunky stake in an enlarged Chevron. But the $53 bln merger now offers no premium and only shares in an underperforming acquiror. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth may have to bid against himself by throwing in a sweetener with hard currency.

Music fund’s flat deal calls for major key change

25 Oct 2023

Shareholders are pushing Hipgnosis, run by industry veteran Merck Mercuriadis, to overhaul its board and cancel a $440 mln asset sale involving Blackstone. Poor governance and a discount value add weight to their case. A new management team could do better by selling the company.

If Amazon, why not Walmart?

25 Oct 2023

Lina Khan’s FTC argues the e-commerce giant’s dominance leaves sellers and customers little choice, even though shopping habits vary. The agency also targets common pricing strategies. By this logic, it’s hard to see what’s so different from the Walton family’s mega-retailer.

Alphabet’s present looks brighter than its future

24 Oct 2023

Revenue at the Google parent rose more than 10% for the first time since mid-2022 because of a recovery in online advertising, its bread-and-butter. But a stumble in its fast-growing cloud computing unit suggests it will be tough for Alphabet to catch up with weightier rivals.