Maduro will survive, just, on Venezuelan tightrope 28 Dec 2016 The economy is a wreck, but the country's inept leader has probably done enough to avoid being forced from office in 2017, unless by fellow Chavistas. A bond swap and army-led food programs helped. His gutting of institutions, though, risks violence that may yet be his undoing.
Latin America’s rightward turn faces serious tests 22 Dec 2016 Several countries in the region have shunned leftist populism of late. But the pain from economic reforms in Argentina and Brazil could make voters reconsider, if it's not accompanied by growth. And Chile's consensus on fiscal prudence may unravel.
Castro embodied the weakness of strongmen 26 Nov 2016 The charismatic Cuban leader resembled other paternalistic caudillos of right and left in his outsized ego, which ultimately stymied his people. Cubans, like other Latin Americans, need institutions more than saviors like Fidel. Venezuela's leaders are another example.
Venezuela’s efforts to buy time grow ever costlier 20 Oct 2016 The government has suspended a recall referendum drive against hapless President Maduro even as it tries to entice creditors of ailing state oil firm PDVSA to accept a sweetened bond swap. The Bolivarian revolution's bid to perpetuate itself is exacting an unsustainable price.
Venezuelan debt swap may ease coming pain 30 Sep 2016 State oil company PDVSA sweetened earlier terms and is now offering more bonds maturing in 2020 in exchange for $5.3 bln worth coming due next year. With crude prices rising, there's a glimmer of hope of postponing default. And investors would get a bigger claim once it comes.
Venezuela crushed by Maduro’s survival calculus 13 Jul 2016 The Andean country's leader is squeezing imports to hoard dollars for debt payment. Ordinary folk are paying the price. A recall referendum he'd probably lose offers more hope than disorderly change. It'll take higher oil prices or electoral shenanigans to keep him in power.
Venezuela plows the sea with tardy reform measures 16 Feb 2016 The Andean nation’s effort to boost its crude income via a production deal with Saudi and Russia is a desperate play to hold the economy together. So is naming a somewhat less radical economy czar. Moderates might try to temper the worst, but the Bolivarian revolution is dead.
Saudi-Russia oil deal is full of holes 16 Feb 2016 The crude producers have agreed to freeze production at January levels. But both Russia and the OPEC kingpin are already pumping nearly flat out. And Iran, which wants to raise output after years of sanctions, may not agree. At best, it may lead to a more ambitious deal later.
Russia and OPEC inch towards grand oil bargain 10 Feb 2016 Russia’s Igor Sechin has hinted that the Kremlin is willing to cut an oil deal with OPEC. The head of Rosneft believes 1 million barrels per day of cuts shared with the cartel could revive prices. For struggling members like Venezuela, it might be just in the nick of time.
Latam pro-business leaders face welfare conundrum 7 Dec 2015 Venezuela’s victorious opposition and Argentina’s President-elect Mauricio Macri need to stem unsustainable social spending that helped tank their countries’ economies. The puzzle is how to fix it without sparking unrest or wrecking their credibility. Brazilians will be watching.
Venezuela’s populist revolution runs out of gas 4 Dec 2015 The Andean nation has the world’s biggest oil reserves but can’t get basic goods like milk and medicine into stores. Voters will punish the inept heirs of leftist caudillo Hugo Chavez in Sunday’s legislative elections, but no quick turnaround is coming. Default is a risk in 2016.
Venezuela adds hazy Rosneft $14 bln to leaky pail 28 May 2015 President Nicolas Maduro is touting the misleading investment sum from Russia’s oil giant. Though U.S. sanctions have boosted his popularity, he can’t escape high inflation, low reserves and power shortages. A further run-up in crude prices may be one of the country’s last hopes.
Buyers hold cards in $6.4 bln Latam oil deal 26 May 2015 Investors opposed to the takeover of Pacific Rubiales have enough votes to knock the sale off course. But the dissenters would be crazy to push the button. The 34 pct premium looks fair. Without a deal, or a surge in oil prices, Pacific Rubiales’ future looks bleak.
U.S. sanctions help Venezuela’s Maduro, for now 10 Mar 2015 Declaring the Latin American nation a security threat helps the hapless leftist president more than it hurts, making Uncle Sam an easy scapegoat for self-inflicted economic woes. New decree powers Maduro seeks in response are more about an upcoming election his party may lose.
Venezuela’s revolution slowly consumes its leader 12 Feb 2015 President Nicolas Maduro, the hapless successor to Hugo Chavez, is struggling mightily to maintain the late strongman’s leftist Bolivarian movement. Tweaking forex rates may buy time, but falling oil prices work against him. Revolutions, as they say, tend to eat their children.
China’s Latin love more marriage of convenience 9 Jan 2015 A pledge of $250 billion of investment in Latin America won’t quite replace falling oil revenue for stricken countries like Venezuela and Ecuador. Even so, the co-operation is helpful. After being battered by market forces, China’s non-market way of doing business must appeal.
Bad ideas catching up with Latin America in 2015 29 Dec 2014 For four years, the region has mostly lagged world economic growth. The IMF predicts another year of the same. While Pacific-oriented countries will shine, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela will suffer. With a couple of exceptions, misguided policies are coming home to roost.
Venezuela digs way to distressed seller status 14 Aug 2014 The country wants to offload Citgo, its U.S. refinery and pipelines unit. It may be worth up to $15 bln, money that’s sorely needed thanks to President Nicolas Maduro’s barmy economic policies. And the drop in value of heavy-oil assets like Citgo owns makes it a bad time to sell.
Venezuela’s economy sadly resembling North Korea 14 Jul 2014 By stopping airlines repatriating bolivar revenue, it has made them cut back service. Add harsh price controls, high inflation and arbitrary regulation and Venezuela is making itself a pariah. With little domestic activity outside the oil patch such autarky has a bleak outlook.
Venezuela’s oil diplomacy is past its sell-by date 27 Mar 2014 The Bolivarian Republic still gives about $9 bln a year in free crude to the likes of Cuba. Even ignoring domestic shortages of staples, that’s enough to cover, say, a year of debt service. With economic cracks widening, President Maduro could start by cutting off this largess.