Heineken dilutes beer’s merrier future 14 Feb 2024 The $54 bln group’s higher prices led to lower volumes, at odds with Carlsberg’s cheerier numbers. Diageo reckons drinkers are shifting from spirits to beer, which should help brewers. Still, without clear evidence investors may not price in the growth a windfall should imply.
Diageo investors seem braced for a beerier future 30 Jan 2024 The $78 bln drinks giant’s sales of spirits fell in the second half of 2023, but Guinness held up. If investors thought Diageo could hit its sales targets, it would be worth more. One takeaway is that they think more of its future revenue could come from less highly valued beer.
Diageo’s Latin American pain risks spreading 10 Nov 2023 Shares in the spirit company fell 16% on a profit warning. Cash-strapped customers are buying cheaper tequila and whisky and switching to beer. But with interest rates at their current high levels, depressed demand could soon hit Diageo’s larger markets and rivals as well.
Capital Calls: Sequoia, Heineken, Moneyball 31 Jul 2023 Concise views on global finance: The venture capital firm issues a refund to cryptocurrency investors; the $57 bln brewer slashes its operating profit outlook; Steve Cohen’s New York Mets baseball team and its whopping $364 mln payroll is a mess, but in sports beta is the alpha.
Ireland becomes guinea pig for booze clampdown 13 Jul 2023 Drinks like Guinness and Smirnoff vodka will feature cancer warning labels by 2026. It’s a bold move that will be watched closely by the US and Europe. If it’s a success and is replicated, rosy forecasts of alcohol sales soaring to $2 trln by 2030 may be revised.
Capital Calls: FedEx delivers, for now 17 Mar 2023 Concise views on global finance: Shares in the delivery company shot up over 10% on Friday, as cost-cutting measures pay off. Those benefits could easily dwindle.
Capital Calls: Carlsberg CEO exit 7 Mar 2023 Concise views on global finance: Asia will be a key battleground for the $21 bln Danish brewer’s next boss.
Energy crisis gives beermakers a lasting hangover 26 Oct 2022 Heineken’s shares fell 10% after reporting weaker-than-expected sales. Inflation is eroding punters’ disposable income, making it harder for brewers to raise prices like in previous crises. Soaring costs for fuel and wheat, which bite next year, pose a further threat to margins.
Japan’s sober youth gives its brewers a headache 19 Aug 2022 A decline in drinking among the country’s young has driven the national tax agency to try to boost alcohol’s popularity. No wonder Asahi boss Atsushi Katsuki is eyeing the U.S. market. Yet previous overseas adventures by Japanese booze giants make for a sobering read.
Capital Calls: Heineken’s post-Covid bounce 1 Aug 2022 Concise views on global finance: Beer drinkers are quaffing more than before the pandemic, despite higher prices. But the Dutch brewer’s decision to scrap its 2023 operating profit margin target suggests it can’t entirely escape rising costs.
Capital Calls: Microsoft micromanages tech jitters 2 Jun 2022 Concise views on global finance: A 1% revenue shortfall because of a strong dollar normally isn’t that important. Microsoft’s warning reflects how nervous tech investors have become.
AB InBev’s low-alcohol miss has sobering effect 27 May 2022 The world’s biggest brewer wants 20% of its beer volume in 2025 to contain little or no alcohol. Hitting the booze-free target requires unlikely growth of 30% a year. That puts a dampener on CEO Michel Doukeris’s do-gooder vibes, as well as his sales and margin potential.
Capital Calls: JPMorgan, FirstGroup, Break fees 18 May 2021 Concise insights on global finance: Jamie Dimon is shuffling his deputies; the UK bus-to-rail group’s sale of its U.S. businesses to EQT has hit an investor revolt; deals involving AT&T and Canadian National Railway highlight the fees due for walking away.
Capital Calls: SXSW 19 Apr 2021 Concise views on global finance: Rolling Stone publisher Penske Media is taking a 50% stake in hipster arts festival South By Southwest.
Corona Capital: Good news is bad news 16 Jul 2020 Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: U.S. retail sales are rising and some banks say consumers are surprisingly resilient – but a recovery once glimpsed is even harder to give up.
Japanese investors stick to curious old ways 30 Mar 2020 Despite signs of displeasure with Kirin’s strategy, shareholders rejected proposals to change it. Toshiba Machine’s approved anti-takeover measures while Teikoku Sen-i’s spurned higher payouts. There are glimmers of progress in the votes, but they are self-defeating all the same.
Budweiser gets a bitter taste of breakups 27 Feb 2020 Covid-19 may cost AB InBev’s Asia spinoff $170 mln in EBITDA from China for January and February. That’s some $3 bln of implied enterprise value, before factoring in the rest of the year or the region. There’s a price to pay for sprawl, but a narrower focus brings its own risks.
Kirin fight taps into Japan’s tolerance for change 19 Feb 2020 A pushy investor makes a persuasive case for the $18 bln brewer to improve governance and ditch pharma and beauty holdings. The company offered a weaker board shakeup and pay-plan revision. In a country renowned for corporate rigidity, the sops could prevail in a proxy battle.
Incoming Heineken boss has a tricky first few sips 12 Feb 2020 Jean-Francois van Boxmeer is leaving the world’s second biggest brewer after 15 years as CEO. His legacy is a firm adept at selling pricier beers in fast growth markets like Vietnam and Mexico. With both troubled, new boss Dolf van den Brink’s issue now is whether to change tack.
Carlsberg premium rating’s days are numbered 4 Feb 2020 The Danish brewer’s Chinese exposure means investors value it more highly than peers. But with the coronavirus shutting nightclubs and half of restaurants in the $22 bln group’s biggest market, that will change. Boss Cees ‘t Hart needs a plan B.