Bonds

Capital Calls: Chinese property bonds

16 Aug 2022

Concise views on global finance: Beijing plans to guarantee new domestic fixed-income issues by half a dozen homebuilders, but that’s hardly enough to revive overall demand for housing.

Capital Calls: Uber’s cash starts to flow

2 Aug 2022

Concise views on global finance: The $56 billion car-hailing service is growing rapidly and has started generating positive cash flow. It’s still overvalued, though.

Ukraine needs hard cash more than debt relief

21 Jul 2022

The war-torn country needs $9 bln a month to cover its costs. Its central bank is running out of reserves. A bond payment freeze will help, but only at the margin. Western allies need to launch a coordinated aid effort to keep the country afloat.

ECB risks forgetting 1990s currency crisis lessons

18 Jul 2022

President Christine Lagarde may soon unveil the central bank’s tool to control sovereign bond yields. Struggles with semi-fixed exchange rates before the euro offer a cautionary tale. To fend off speculative attack, authorities are best off keeping targets and methods vague.

Chinese stimulus requires morale booster

8 Jul 2022

Local governments may front-load $220 bln of bond sales to help fill an estimated $1 trln funding gap. Infrastructure outlays have been restrained so far; officials worry wasteful investment will hurt their careers. Getting them to spend means reducing punishment for bad choices.

Italy starts countdown to risky life after Draghi

5 Jul 2022

The 5-Star party may bring down Mario Draghi’s coalition government. A crisis would hurt growth and raise the chances of a less EU-friendly executive. Worse, market jitters due to rising political uncertainty may complicate the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame bond yields.

Cosseted bank bondholders need to feel more pain

4 Jul 2022

Credit Suisse’s repayment of a hybrid bond at its first call despite the higher cost of replacing it highlights flaws in the $212 bln market. Post-2008 reforms were meant to make such capital permanent, but lenders fear angering investors. Bank watchdogs can take a harder stance.

Capital Calls: Russian default, Inflation and debt

27 Jun 2022

Concise views on global finance: Moscow defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time in over 100 years, leaving bondholders in limbo; the Bank for International Settlements wants rates raised “quickly and decisively”, but is also worried about higher borrowing costs.

Investors need to learn to ride inflation cycle

23 Jun 2022

Bonds and shares are tumbling as prices soar, just as in the 1970s. The experience of that decade suggests value stocks, commodities and safe-haven currencies offer the best protection, says Edward Chancellor. But wild swings in inflation can still catch markets off-guard.

Lagarde will struggle to do a Mario Draghi

21 Jun 2022

Euro zone bond markets have stabilised since the ECB president pledged to buy bonds. That raises the chance that investors cowed by her Italian predecessor’s promises won’t need her to intervene much. Just as well, given interest rates and political risks make it harder to do.

ECB’s crisis weapon pledge is vague and late

15 Jun 2022

The European Central Bank will “accelerate” work on a new tool to control soaring bond yields from weak sovereigns. The lack of detail reflects divisions within the bank on when and how to use such a programme. It’s an invitation to markets to test the ECB’s resolve yet again.

Central banks still have space to fight inflation

15 Jun 2022

Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde are tightening monetary policy to try to control soaring prices. Previous shocks have prompted the Fed and ECB chiefs to pause or loosen again. Despite plunging equity prices this time, calmer credit markets imply the “Fed Put” is far off.

Crashing yen disturbs Haruhiko Kuroda’s zen

15 Jun 2022

Japan’s currency is at its weakest against the U.S. dollar since 1998 and bond traders are revolting. It disrupts the central bank governor’s meditations on the mystical balance between growth, public debt and near-zero rates. Stagflation risk suggests a new mantra is warranted.

Italian banks face return of sovereign embrace

14 Jun 2022

A decade ago, soaring government bond yields threatened to drag down domestic lenders. Today, banks have shrunk state debt to less than 7% of total assets, while cutting dud loans and building capital buffers. As the ECB retreats, the pressure to load up again will increase.

ECB’s farewell to QE may prove premature

8 Jun 2022

The European Central Bank may on Thursday confirm plans to end its 3 trln euro asset purchase programme and raise rates in July. Weaker economies’ borrowing costs are already soaring. A mere hint that bond-buying could resume if yields jump may not be enough to keep markets calm.

Chinese property crisis drives derivative rethink

7 Jun 2022

Beijing has helped some private developers with bond issues by letting them offer protection via tools like credit risk mitigation warrants. So far it’s symbolic and over-reliant on reluctant state banks. If private money can be wooed, however, the market could finally take off.

China’s real estate renovation is too cosmetic

26 May 2022

The central bank joined wider efforts to help the property sector by cutting five-year lending rates to 4.45%. Banks remain sceptical of developers however, and bonds are trading at distressed prices. Lack of faith in the industry’s foundations make it harder to build a recovery.

Russia plays the fool in its own default theatre

3 May 2022

Moscow looks set to meet foreign currency bond payments, after saying a month ago it could only pay in roubles. High oil and gas prices mean it has ample revenue to meet its obligations. But the debt grandstanding may not yet be over, notably if the EU imposes an energy embargo.

UK grocer buyout creates bond market indigestion

29 Apr 2022

Banks led by Goldman and BNP Paribas that funded CD&R’s $9 bln Morrisons buyout have sold a chunk of the debt at a big discount. Inflation and a supermarket price war mean bondholders can now name their price. The debt hangover may make other deals trickier.

China takes new tack on emerging market debt

27 Apr 2022

Beijing has agreed to work with the Paris Club of official creditors to clear up Zambia’s $17.3 bln debt mess. That’s a major shift from the bilateral approach it usually adopts. An even bigger sign of progress would be accepting a haircut on the $5.8 bln that China is owed.