China index: Sober lending, spending slows growth 2 Dec 2013 Our alternative index shows China’s growth prospects at a four-month low. Lack-luster exports played a part. But the dip also reflected a healthy slow-down in new loans, sales of property and Audis, as well as a sharp fall in luxury liquor stocks.
China Index: Waiting for the Party to start 31 Oct 2013 The economy held more or less level in September, despite an unexpected drop-off in exports, according to Breakingviews’ alternative growth index. With new leaders set to reveal plans for the next decade at the “third plenum” later this month, the inertia could be short-lived.
China loan to Argentina looks economically foolish 17 Oct 2013 The Latam country’s price data have looked screwy for years. So now do its GDP and payments figures. China may lend $10 bln to plug the gaps, but since collateral will be difficult to secure and fiscal information unreliable, this seems little more than a political gesture.
China Tea Leaf Index: Hanging on for reform 30 Sep 2013 China’s rail shipments and steel drove our alternative growth index up to 96.3 in August, the highest since January. That looks like enough to give leaders the benefit of the doubt ahead of November’s party plenum, when the tone for future economic growth will really be set.
China growth index: Good month for train-spotters 30 Aug 2013 Breakingviews’ forward guide to China’s economy has picked up, including rail freight volumes, an important sign of domestic demand. Summer’s PMI readings also improved. But most of the alternative growth indicators remain negative. Things are far from full steam ahead.
China index: Drinking, driving through a slowdown 31 Jul 2013 Demand for liquor, Audis and trucks helped take the edge off China’s slowdown in June. Despite Beijing’s curbs, strong home sales played a supporting role in lifting Breakingviews’ Tea Leaf Index. But exports put the brakes on, falling for the first time since January last year.