Israel’s war is a risk and opportunity for Saudi 31 Oct 2023 Hamas’s attacks complicate Mohammed bin Salman’s aim to build relations with the Israeli state, Gulf expert Kristian Coates Ulrichsen says in this Exchange podcast. But if the Saudi crown prince can use his leverage to help Palestinians, it may help his image at home and abroad.
Israel war tests US appeal to global swing states 30 Oct 2023 US power in part hangs on its claim to pursue a principles-based foreign policy. The Gaza conflict has led to accusations of double standards. If these stick, the United States’ attempts to woo developing countries as part of its new Cold War with China could suffer.
Influencer model infects US political fundraising 27 Oct 2023 The US House elected a speaker after four people gave it a try. The chaos partly reflects how politicians now receive support. Social media enables them to reach voters without the backing of their party. The new way to create star power will disrupt politics as it has Hollywood.
Qatar can weather latest foreign stress test 27 Oct 2023 The Gulf emirate is under scrutiny for its links to Hamas, six years after a blockade by neighbours. One risk is that its $450 bln sovereign wealth fund gets a frostier reception. But Doha’s giant gas reserves and its role as mediator and US ally should protect its clout.
China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage 23 Oct 2023 The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.
India and Japan will be Asia’s next power couple 19 Oct 2023 Modi and Kishida's governments partner on security and are setting up a $600 mln fund to co-invest in green infrastructure. It's a fresh sign that financial ties, including potentially on cross-border commodities M&A, may flourish to match the strengthening geopolitical bond.
The financial ramifications of US-China tensions 17 Oct 2023 The rivalry between the world’s two largest powers is having an impact on almost every aspect of global business and finance. In this episode of The Exchange podcast, Jared Cohen from Goldman Sachs discusses how investors should approach geopolitics, and the limits of decoupling.
US grand strategy can prop up the global order 16 Oct 2023 The horror in Israel and Gaza is a new blow to a fragile world. But the United States can prevent the rules-based order from collapsing by continuing to steer a steady course with regards to Russia and China. The biggest risk would be the return of Donald Trump as president.
Israel war casts US as flawed-but-familiar haven 9 Oct 2023 Dysfunction in D.C. continues to freeze legislation, including new aid for Israel. Despite that, past conflicts – 9/11, Ukraine’s war with Russia – suggest the dollar will remain the safe haven. Investors’ reckoning with budgets, infighting, and an election will have to wait.
The EU is stuck with its one-trick refugee policy 9 Oct 2023 Africans and Asians fleeing persecution could boost the European Union’s ageing workforce. But its leaders are so scared of nationalism at home they prefer to pay North African regimes to stop asylum-seekers crossing the Mediterranean. It’s a short-term fix, says Hugo Dixon.
Western rival to Belt and Road has much to prove 25 Sep 2023 The G7’s $600 bln plan to compete with China’s flagging investment push has launched splashy railway and energy schemes in Africa and Asia. But governments and private investors haven’t put up much cash. It’s also unclear how poor countries will avoid debt traps, says Hugo Dixon.
M&A spillover in India-Canada fight hurts everyone 22 Sep 2023 As bilateral relations sour over a murder, tycoon Sajjan Jindal is going slow on his planned $8 bln consortium bid led by JSW Steel for Vancouver-based Teck’s coal assets. The stalling hurts the buyer and the seller, and India’s diversification ambitions a bit more.
India entry into geopolitical storm will be costly 19 Sep 2023 New Delhi dismissed as ‘absurd’ Canada’s allegation of its involvement in a Sikh leader’s murder. Either way, the fallout will ripple through cabinets and boardrooms in the West. For global companies and money managers, it’s a reminder that de-risking from China is complicated.
Less ethical US foreign policy requires new logic 18 Sep 2023 When Joe Biden took office he promised to put human rights at the heart of international affairs. The president is now cosying up to regimes like Vietnam to contain China and build new supply chains. That makes sense, but Biden should explain his approach better, says Hugo Dixon.
Tariffs unfit to solve EU’s Chinese EV puzzle 13 Sep 2023 Ursula von der Leyen’s new anti-dumping investigation could result in punitive duties on China-made electric vehicles. But penalties are a bad fix for the EU’s green push. The bloc still needs the People’s Republic to help it phase out car pollution – and to buy Europe’s exports.
The G7 is least bad group for a troubled world 4 Sep 2023 The G20 and United Nations, which hold summits this month, are broken. The expanded BRICS is a motley crew. The Group of Seven rich nations has shortcomings and could struggle if the US turns inwards. But it has the potential to keep peace and protect the planet, says Hugo Dixon.
India is warming up to a cooling China 28 Aug 2023 Narendra Modi’s meeting with Xi Jinping in South Africa signals some thawing of financial ties hamstrung since 2020 by border tensions. Investments from the People’s Republic into its neighbour shrivelled thanks to a screening policy. That now looks ripe for fine-tuning.
Capital Calls: Better.com SPAC 25 Aug 2023 Concise views on global finance: From presidential hopefuls to a new blank-check acquisition, this week was a reminder that the speculative SPAC movement will be hard to kill.
Italy faces bumpy round trip on the Silk Road 23 Aug 2023 Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni may quit Chinese President Xi Jinping’s infrastructure club. Like other European fans, Italy gained little economic benefit from signing up to the Belt and Road Initiative. Yet leaving may provoke retaliation, perhaps against its luxury industry.
America’s new China curbs eschew scale for smarts 10 Aug 2023 The Biden administration’s plan for screening US investments in the People’s Republic is not the wide-ranging proscription many expected. It targets only a handful of deals, would ban even fewer and isn’t retroactive. That’s a relief for most investors – and for diplomacy, too.