ECB

Capital Calls: SXSW

19 April 2021

Concise views on global finance: Rolling Stone publisher Penske Media is taking a 50% stake in hipster arts festival South By Southwest.

The Exchange: ECB President Christine Lagarde

14 April 2021

What role does the central bank play in combatting climate change? How will it confront the emergence of digital currencies? What if the U.S. economy charges ahead while Europe languishes? Lagarde takes on these questions and more in an exclusive discussion with Breakingviews.

Capital Calls: BlackRock’s Archegos angle, SPACs

30 March 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: The fallout from the collapse of Bill Hwang’s family office gives regulators reasons to focus on funds, not fund managers; and bosses of blank-check companies don’t take investor questions.

Capital Calls: Netflix, ECB, Glass Lewis, Zalando

16 March 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: The streaming service’s password-sharing crackdown twists the knife; the central bank worries about identifying bad loans; the proxy adviser’s sale underscores its place on Wall Street; the online fashion giant’s bold targets.

Lagarde’s yen for consensus will be stress-tested

11 March 2021

The ECB will step up the pace of bond-buying to combat a rise in yields. Moving sooner wouldn’t have allowed President Christine Lagarde to get the governing council’s green light. Fast-moving markets may require speedier reactions than her instinct for forging unity permits.

Central banks will have to fight reflation tantrum

26 February 2021

Improving economic prospects have boosted bond yields. Fed boss Jerome Powell and his global peers will welcome the cause but not the effect. If their rhetoric can’t halt the sharp rise in borrowing costs, they will be forced to ramp up asset purchases to safeguard the recovery.

Precision is ECB’s enemy when picking compass

18 February 2021

President Christine Lagarde has stressed the need for favourable borrowing conditions to justify her 1.85 trillion euro crisis response. Rate-setters will in March discuss how to measure this concept. Being too specific may backfire and limit the central bank’s wiggle room.

Corona Capital: Indian banks, LBOs, Stellantis

18 January 2021

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Indian banking guru Aditya Puri gives reasons to be bullish about New Delhi’s lenders at a Breakingviews predictions event; the ECB cracks down on risky loans; carmaker Stellantis gets a boost from passive funds.

Forces lowering euro zone inflation aren’t all bad

7 January 2021

Euro zone consumer prices fell 0.3% in December from a year ago. Several factors, especially a weak economy, are to blame. Still, a long-term trend that also chips away at inflation is cheaper tech. That’s not something even ECB chief Christine Lagarde would want to see reversed.

Corona Capital: Icahn, Productivity, Natixis

4 January 2021

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Carl Icahn sells half his Herbalife Nutrition stake; an ECB survey suggests Covid-19 will make big firms more productive, but that may not be all good news; and Natixis fast-tracks its overhaul.

ECB fiat anoints unlikely bank dividend heroes

16 December 2020

The regulator capped payouts as a proportion of earnings and assets. Well-capitalised lenders with richer valuations, like Nordea and KBC, now offer tiny yields compared with minnows like Liberbank. The risk is that a slow recovery causes restrictions to last beyond September.

Christine Lagarde’s baby bazooka needs backup

10 December 2020

The ECB boss will deploy emergency stimulus measures, such as asset buying and ultra-cheap loans to banks, for longer but came up with no new tricks to boost Europe’s economy. Central bankers have been innovative in the crisis. It’s now governments’ turn to do more of the work.

Chatty ECB has a communications problem

2 December 2020

Chief Economist Philip Lane has since March spoken with a series of financiers after policy meetings, his diary shows. A perception that a select few have privileged access is best avoided. The even bigger issue is why the central bank has to work so hard to land its message.

Lowly Europe bank values will outlast dividend ban

26 November 2020

Big lenders blame frozen payouts for depressing share prices, down 17% on average this year. But the selloff broadly matches the decline in profit forecasts for 2022, suggesting ultra-low interest rates are to blame. Even if dividends return, discount valuations may persist.

ECB has chance to avoid Fed’s strategy revamp flaw

12 November 2020

Christine Lagarde’s central bank is examining basics, like how it defines its price goal. Its U.S. peer earlier this year switched to aiming for inflation that averages 2% over time. But leaving things as vague as Jerome Powell did undermines efforts to lift price expectations.

Italy’s oldest bank risks becoming a new Alitalia

5 November 2020

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena needs another bailout. A government rescue would cost around 2 bln euros. Winding it down and selling the rump to a rival like UniCredit would be politically toxic. Like Rome’s loss-making airline, it is turning into a lasting burden on taxpayers.

Bank dividend bans have passed their sell-by date

30 October 2020

European supervisors in March halted payouts so that lenders could keep credit flowing and absorb losses. Yet earnings and capital have held up, while bond markets are booming. Regulators can drop the restrictions, as long as banks keep big shock absorbers and don’t cut lending.

European Union will be bond market’s new behemoth

7 October 2020

The need to fund pandemic aid schemes worth nearly 1 trillion euros will make the EU one of the region’s largest issuers. ECB bond buying and investors’ hunger for safe assets mean that is no problem. And the scale of issuance will make its debt more liquid, a prized quality.

ECB’s valiant “lowflation” brainstorm has a flaw

30 September 2020

President Christine Lagarde outlined several ways the central bank’s strategy might adapt to a world where prices rise too slowly, not too fast. For all its merits, the exercise assumes rate-setters have full control over inflation. The past decade shows they don’t.

How to build a European JPMorgan

25 September 2020

An EU bank of the U.S. behemoth’s size could help ensure reliable corporate funding and more tech investment. Fragmented liquidity, capital and bankruptcy rules make the necessary mega-deals hard. Though the ECB is helping, it’s really up to national regulators and politicians.