ECB

ECB has chance to avoid Fed’s strategy revamp flaw

12 November 2020

Christine Lagarde’s central bank is examining basics, like how it defines its price goal. Its U.S. peer earlier this year switched to aiming for inflation that averages 2% over time. But leaving things as vague as Jerome Powell did undermines efforts to lift price expectations.

Italy’s oldest bank risks becoming a new Alitalia

5 November 2020

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena needs another bailout. A government rescue would cost around 2 bln euros. Winding it down and selling the rump to a rival like UniCredit would be politically toxic. Like Rome’s loss-making airline, it is turning into a lasting burden on taxpayers.

Bank dividend bans have passed their sell-by date

30 October 2020

European supervisors in March halted payouts so that lenders could keep credit flowing and absorb losses. Yet earnings and capital have held up, while bond markets are booming. Regulators can drop the restrictions, as long as banks keep big shock absorbers and don’t cut lending.

European Union will be bond market’s new behemoth

7 October 2020

The need to fund pandemic aid schemes worth nearly 1 trillion euros will make the EU one of the region’s largest issuers. ECB bond buying and investors’ hunger for safe assets mean that is no problem. And the scale of issuance will make its debt more liquid, a prized quality.

ECB’s valiant “lowflation” brainstorm has a flaw

30 September 2020

President Christine Lagarde outlined several ways the central bank’s strategy might adapt to a world where prices rise too slowly, not too fast. For all its merits, the exercise assumes rate-setters have full control over inflation. The past decade shows they don’t.

How to build a European JPMorgan

25 September 2020

An EU bank of the U.S. behemoth’s size could help ensure reliable corporate funding and more tech investment. Fragmented liquidity, capital and bankruptcy rules make the necessary mega-deals hard. Though the ECB is helping, it’s really up to national regulators and politicians.

EU banks’ sovereign-debt relapse brings new risks

24 August 2020

Lenders from Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo to Spain’s BBVA have boosted holdings of domestic government bonds, helped by cheap ECB funds. The exposure leaves them vulnerable if euro zone breakup fears return. And it makes completing Europe’s banking union and cross-border M&A harder.

Andrew Bailey can freeload on Fed and ECB largesse

18 June 2020

The Bank of England boss will buy an extra 100 billion pounds of bonds, but at a slower pace. His peers are being more open-handed. For example, banks just borrowed 1.3 trillion euros from the European Central Bank. Ample global liquidity will help Bailey contain UK debt yields.

Corona Capital: Next crisis, Overvalued markets

16 June 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Deutsche Bank analysts sound a warning about future catastrophes, while investors try to square overpriced stocks with their hopes of a recovery.

Christine Lagarde is having a good crisis

4 June 2020

The ECB boss will buy more assets and for longer than initially planned. She is as decisive as her predecessor, Mario Draghi, but luckier. Politicians are splurging to revive economies. Growth will recover faster because fiscal and monetary policies are pulling the same way.

Corona Capital: ZoomInfo IPO, U.S. trade

4 June 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: ZoomInfo goes public with a big pop despite Covid-19; and America’s goods-trade deficit with Europe will test Washington’s mood.

Franco-German motor nudges EU off virus crash lane

19 May 2020

The pair proposed a 500 bln euro fund to help pandemic-hit states. That recognises the need to share the fiscal burden and rely less on ECB boss Christine Lagarde. But market jubilance is premature. Opposition from northern countries means the plan will probably be watered down.

Curbing German exceptionalism has political price

11 May 2020

A national court’s ruling on ECB asset buying has challenged the primacy of EU law. If politicians can’t defuse the stand-off, Brussels will have to take legal action against Europe’s paymaster. The fiasco is likely to give Euroscepticism across the continent a boost.

ECB firefighters can circumvent German roadblock

5 May 2020

A ruling by Teutonic judges challenged the European Central Bank’s long-standing efforts to use bond buying to stimulate the euro zone economy. Inventive rate-setters will find ways to plough on to achieve their aims. But it’s a very German way to test their independence.

Free ECB money is little use for battered banks

1 May 2020

President Christine Lagarde launched yet another programme to slash funding costs for lenders. History suggests much of the benefit will flow straight to borrowers, as intended. Loading up on southern European debt would be profitable but risky, and may irk supervisors.

ECB’s low inflation problem is worse than it looks

30 April 2020

Depressed energy costs meant euro zone consumer prices rose 0.4% in April from a year ago. But President Christine Lagarde may in reality be even further away from her just-below 2% goal. Statisticians’ efforts to fill data gaps during lockdown risk overstating price pressures.

Central bankers have more cards up their sleeves

29 April 2020

Fed Chair Jay Powell and his peers have fashioned new tools to fight the Covid-19 crisis. In future downturns, they could copy the BOJ’s stock buying and, in extremis, consider financing governments directly. Only surging inflation or overt political meddling will hold them back.

Christine Lagarde will need an even bigger bazooka

29 April 2020

The ECB boss is snapping up so many bonds to keep Italian and other southern euro zone debt yields in check that she may soon have to augment the 750 billion euro purchase plan unveiled less than two months ago. The more she does, the more squabbling time she buys EU leaders.

Crisis gives ECB cover to cast off rating shackles

22 April 2020

Central banks have historically steered clear of junk bonds. But the Federal Reserve’s move to buy debt rated below investment grade gives its European counterpart an excuse to follow. Moving swiftly would help it avoid a damaging crisis if the Italian government is downgraded.

Mr. Whatever It Takes is Italy’s post-corona card

2 April 2020

As ECB chief, Mario Draghi saved the euro in 2012 with monetary policy magic and prevented an Italian default. As Italy crumbles under the cost of a spiralling epidemic, his name has emerged as either the next premier or president. But he shouldn’t rush into either job just yet.