Trump void lets Xi Jinping cosy up to Davos Man 17 Jan 2017 The Chinese president defended trade and international cooperation at the global conflab. Beijing is a highly flawed champion of globalisation. But if America turns inward under its new president, China can play a bigger global role in everything from trade to climate change.
Politics could flatter or flatten global growth 16 Jan 2017 Last year the world economy grew at its slowest rate since 2009, the IMF reckons. Stimulus in China and the promise of Donald Trump’s tax cuts mean the next two years should be better. However, increased risks of protectionism make forecasts even more tentative than usual.
Review: Mapping out China’s fast-changing internet 13 Jan 2017 The world's largest mobile economy is powered by an internet with Chinese characteristics, says Winston Ma. His book is an insightful guide to the forces behind the country's thriving tech sector. But it turns a blind eye to challenges faced by outsiders like Facebook and Airbnb.
Germany raises bar in fight for equal pay 12 Jan 2017 A new law will force companies to tell female employees how much their male equivalents earn. Companies complain it’s clumsy and costly. But they only have themselves to blame: despite anti-discrimination rules and voluntary pledges, the gender pay gap is still unacceptably wide.
UBI takes slow road to Italian bad debt solution 12 Jan 2017 The lender is raising 400 mln euros to buy the remains of three failed small banks. It’s a good deal, but UBI could have raised more and boosted bad debt reserves, like larger rival UniCredit. A thin buffer places too much faith in Italy’s fragile economy and fraught politics.
China bullies South Korea at its own risk 12 Jan 2017 Beijing looks to be exacting economic revenge against Seoul over a U.S. military pact. Sectors riding the "Korean wave" in China, like cosmetics and entertainment, are in the crosshairs. But deep manufacturing ties are harder to break. Excessive harshness would backfire on China.
Britain’s true income gap is between young and old 11 Jan 2017 Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn's clumsy plans to rein in executive pay overlook an inconvenient fact: UK income inequality has fallen. Since the crisis retirees have done better than workers, though. Tackling the tensions caused by this divide makes a better political target.
Bets against Iraq’s OPEC cuts are premature 10 Jan 2017 Traders may have jumped the gun betting Baghdad won’t stick to an output deal. The cartel's second-largest producer has little to gain reneging on the pact and could struggle to maintain record shipments without investment. Higher prices help its cause more than extra barrels.
India’s next big experiment could be basic income 10 Jan 2017 A direct cash transfer to citizens could replace a plethora of subsidies and benefits. That would reduce corruption and waste, especially if the handout only goes to the poor. But identifying the worthy will be tough, even with India’s impressive biometric identity database.
Banks whiplashed by Asia’s distrust of hot money 9 Jan 2017 Indonesia plans new rules to ensure research is "factual", after a downgrade led it to cut ties with JPMorgan. Malaysia is clamping down on currency trading. The moves only highlight Southeast Asia’s vulnerability to capital flight rather than the region's impressive growth.
Obama leaves Trump with a tough job on jobs 6 Jan 2017 Creating nearly 16 mln new positions since the post-crisis nadir is pretty good. So is an unemployment rate under 5 pct. Not all labor indicators are so positive, but wages may finally be on the march. The new president's bold plans could clash with late-cycle economic realities.
Review: Undermining the foundations of rationality 6 Jan 2017 Economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky changed our understanding of how people make decisions. "The Undoing Project" by Michael Lewis is a vivid and insightful account of their partnership. However, it also raises questions about why faith in rational humans is so enduring.
Toyota tantrum may mark peak Twitter-Trump 5 Jan 2017 The president-elect got his facts wrong tweet-threatening tariffs if the carmaker sells Mexican-made Corollas in the US. Hence the stock's limited reaction. A contrasting crash in Constellation Brands shares shows investors starting to focus on more concrete cross-border issues.
Le Pen’s post-euro pitch is naïve but beguiling 5 Jan 2017 Far-right presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen wants to reintroduce a national currency in France alongside the euro. Her plan would face huge obstacles and involve big risks. Yet the idea of a painless reversal of the single currency project may seduce voters in France and beyond.
Breakingviews predicts a shaken-up world in 2017 3 Jan 2017 After the upheavals of 2016, governments, companies and investors face unfamiliar terrain. Once-unthinkable scenarios, good or bad, now seem possible. From the U.S. economy to European elections, from M&A to magic mushrooms, our financial insights offer a guide to the year ahead.
Trump stimulus will only delay next U.S. recession 3 Jan 2017 The president-elect inherits an economy that's in fairly good shape. His planned tax cuts and infrastructure spending will give growth an added short-term boost. Though that may postpone an overdue downturn, Trump is still likely to face a crunch before the next election.
Germany’s thriving job market no solace for Merkel 3 Jan 2017 Unemployment has fallen to its lowest since 1981, and the number of people in jobs is at a record. Chancellor Angela Merkel presided over this happy state but will struggle to leverage it in upcoming elections. Voters are more focused on less predictable flows of migrants.
Too many forex fiddles make Beijing look nervous 3 Jan 2017 Regulators have put fresh restrictions on individuals changing money. They've also doubled the number of currencies in the official trading basket, a statistical trick to make the sliding yuan look stable. Instead of fooling investors, official anxiety could aggravate outflows.
Breakingviews predicts a shaken-up world in 2017 3 Jan 2017 After the upheavals of 2016, governments, companies and investors face unfamiliar terrain. Once-unthinkable scenarios, good or bad, now seem possible. From the U.S. economy to European elections, from M&A to magic mushrooms, our financial insights offer a guide to the year ahead.
Dominican Republic economy faces tricky crosswinds 30 Dec 2016 The Caribbean nation of 10 mln has notched the strongest GDP growth in the Western Hemisphere for the third year running - over 6 pct for 2016. Low oil prices, pro-business reforms, U.S. growth and an influx of cash from Venezuela all helped. The perfect storm won't keep blowing.