Migration has masked UK skills shortage 7 Jul 2016 Britain has a paucity of negotiators to thrash out post-EU trade deals. This is not the only national shortage of know-how. Over a quarter of adults in England lack basic skills, the OECD says. Migrants have helped plug a gap that homegrown talent may struggle to fill quickly.
Brexit pops investors’ fund liquidity illusion 5 Jul 2016 Asset managers' shares were pummeled after Standard Life and Aviva halted redemptions on property funds that mix short-term funding and illiquid assets. Bond and equity funds are less vulnerable, but not immune. In dangerous times, stable long-term funding deserves a premium.
It’s not how much oil, but how much influence 5 Jul 2016 The U.S. has more oil than Saudi Arabia, according to Rystad Energy. But oil reserves are only worth counting if there’s a chance they can be produced economically over time. Size is much less important than an ability to guide the price - and there, Saudi still rules.
China’s M&A spree will face growing backlash 5 Jul 2016 German politicians are the latest to get jittery about a Chinese takeover bid. In the absence of global foreign investment rules, countries can block deals they don't like. China's reluctance to open its markets means surging cross-border acquisitions will spark more resistance.
UK’s tax cut goal: calm business, scare Brussels 4 Jul 2016 George Osborne has plans to cut the UK's already-low corporate tax rate to near-Irish 15 pct levels. It might stop domestic business jumping ship post-Brexit. But the prospect of a tax haven UK also acts as a bargaining chip to use in forthcoming exit negotiations.
Review: To have and have not, Brazil-style 1 Jul 2016 In "Brazillionaires," Alex Cuadros explores Latin America's biggest economy through its wealthiest citizens, whose fortunes he tracked as a reporter. It's a tale of boom, bust and back-scratching among moguls and politicos that sheds a telling light on the nation's current woes.
Britain tests catastrophe bounce back theory 1 Jul 2016 Doom-mongers overestimated how much the U.S. economy would suffer after Lehman's collapse in 2008 or the 9/11 attacks. Gloom about the UK leaving the EU is better judged. As Bank of England Governor Mark Carney acknowledges, policymakers face much tougher challenges this time.
Asian amnesties point to wealth of tax worries 1 Jul 2016 Authorities in India and Indonesia are doubling down on efforts to persuade citizens to declare their assets. The schemes in both countries are very different but could provide a welcome boost to tax revenues. New global rules could also help governments reap a big windfall.
Guest view: Changing the definition of growth 30 Jun 2016 It's time to reconsider the all-consuming focus on GDP to concentrate on what underpins development, argues David Cruickshank of Deloitte. Measuring social progress can help countries identify and improve the factors upon which economic stability and prosperity depend.
UniCredit plucks direction out of disorder 30 Jun 2016 The Italian bank named Jean-Pierre Mustier as chief executive, much faster than expected. The potential mess from the UK vote to leave the EU means it is not a good time to be rudderless. Mustier is internationally respected, and unlikely to shirk tough decisions.
Believe bonds not stocks on Brexit damage 30 Jun 2016 Stocks have rebounded after the referendum, suggesting Britain’s prospects aren’t too grim. Yet falling gilt yields point to bleaker outcomes. In the absence of hard economic data, a post-vote slump in consumer morale supports the pessimistic thesis.
Britain’s best course of EU action is inaction 30 Jun 2016 It would be silly to push the button on leaving the European Union before Italy’s referendum in October or French and German elections in 2017. By then the UK will have more leverage, and voters a better idea what leaving looks like. Investors could be in for a dull interregnum.
Hadas: Britain picks the wrong time to play games 29 Jun 2016 After the vote to leave the EU, politicians on both sides have taken pride in abdicating their responsibility. It comes not from respect for democracy, but for another British tradition: treating things as a game. Young people lost this round, but may even the score in future.
Chancellor: Brexit can make a stronger, fairer UK 28 Jun 2016 The British elected to pop the UK’s bubble economy, which delivers appalling productivity growth and unequally distributed gains. Turmoil unleashed by the vote could put the economy on a sounder footing. As asset prices deflate, the distribution of wealth becomes less unequal.
Post-EU Britain could address North-South divide 28 Jun 2016 Ditching EU state aid rules means Britain can in theory set different corporate tax rates around the country. That could ease regional economic disparities - a key flashpoint from the referendum. The catch is such a move would require a cleaner break with the single market.
China has more to lose from Western turmoil 28 Jun 2016 As voters in developed countries reject globalisation, Premier Li Keqiang has called for more international economic cooperation. That makes sense: rising protectionism and resistance to foreign investment will hurt Chinese business and exacerbate its own economic slowdown.
Guest view: U.S. inaction on Puerto Rico risks chaos 27 Jun 2016 The island territory can no longer make debt payments, its economy is in free fall, foreclosures are surging and citizens are fleeing, says Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi. To avoid a humanitarian crisis, the Senate needs to pass the PROMESA act without delay.
Sterling destined for more measured misery 27 Jun 2016 After voting to quit the EU, Britain faces an economic slowdown that will warrant more monetary easing, a pickup in inflation, and huge political uncertainty. It’s a toxic mix for any currency. Spectacular plunges in the pound will give way to steady falls to new lows.
Austerity has no place in post-Brexit Britain 27 Jun 2016 Chancellor George Osborne has since 2010 aimed to cut public debt and deficits in the name of financial stability. He may now need to row back to cope with any post-vote economic slowdown. Investors’ reaction so far suggests his fiscal rigour was over-zealous in the first place.
Japan could use British fallout as spur for action 27 Jun 2016 Market ructions are once again undermining Japan’s economic revival. That could help drive bolder reform, more state spending and looser monetary policy. Officials could even resort to selling yen. Amid so much uncertainty, though, it would be wise to keep some powder dry.