Great Recession may make U.S. labor less efficient 15 Apr 2010 From 1985 to 2007, American workers kept finding suitable jobs easier to get. But the Great Recession may be reversing that progress. If the increase in longterm jobseekers makes skills atrophy, unfilled vacancies and unemployment rates could both rise an expensive mix.
Even curtailed, BRIC summit has valid purpose 15 Apr 2010 The departure of China's president cut short the meeting in Brasilia. The BRIC leaders might not have enough in common for two days of powwow, anyway. Yet China's 11.9 pct GDP growth underlines the four nations' economic power a potential counterbalance to the wealthy West.
China can learn from Singapore’s revaluation 14 Apr 2010 Singapore has revalued its currency to control inflation. This approach is not open to China, which has a bigger economy and a more undervalued exchange rate. Nevertheless, Beijing can learn from Singapore's model, which offers a better balance between stability and flexibility.
High time to abolish carried interest tax break 14 Apr 2010 The U.S. House of Representatives has tried to lift private equity titans' tax rates into line with those of ordinary mortals before, but the Senate has, until now, resisted. Higher tax on carry won't eliminate America's deficit. But it's needed for the sake of fairness.
Bank pay discipline slips as competition hots up 14 Apr 2010 The market for top banking talent is buoyant. Wounded banks, and firms with ambitious growth plans, are under pressure to cough up. While big payers may be following the letter of new regulations on compensation, they risk forgetting the spirit of the rules.
Cablevision, others chip away at wall of debt 13 Apr 2010 Nearly $830 billion of risky U.S. dollar corporate debt comes due between 2012 and 2014. At first sight that casts a long shadow over credit markets. But borrowers are already tweaking their obligations. By the time 2012 comes around, the wall will be much less of a barrier.
Euro zone will probably need its Greek bazooka 13 Apr 2010 The euro zone hopes promising lots of aid will reassure markets so much that a bailout isn't needed. That's similar to what Hank Paulson hoped to do with Fannie and Freddie. The former U.S. Treasury boss ultimately had to fire his bazooka and so probably will the euro zone.
The other PIIGS are smart to help Greece 13 Apr 2010 It may seem odd that debtladen Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain will contribute 10.5 bln euros to Greece s 30 bln bailout facility. But not acting would be far more expensive, and the other PIIGS may even make money. Still, if another one needs a bailout, it won t be easy.
Russia’s growth spurt may be short-lived 13 Apr 2010 Strong oil prices are helping Russia emerge from last year's slump much faster than expected. But the factors that fuelled Russia's growth in recent history can't be counted on in the future. Without reforms to boost investment, Russia's mediumterm growth could well disappoint.
UK election may be fought on peak between dips 13 Apr 2010 The current government says it wants to win the UK election to secure the recovery. But data show the recovery is fragile despite the huge fiscal stimulus that must be withdrawn. Warring politicians aren't trumpeting the needed cuts or the real risks of a double dip.
Where does the yuan head next? 13 Apr 2010 China and the U.S. aren't quite friends yet, but the risk of a headon collision over the value of the yuan has receded. A stronger currency looks likely, but probably with some careful choreography. John Foley examines the whens and hows.
Poland’s economic legacy is tribute to its victims 12 Apr 2010 The country grieves after the loss of its president, central bank head and other prominent figures. But Poland's institutions and economy look sound. Elections will be brought forward. The tragedy has not plunged Poland into crisis, and the economy should keep growing.
Business set for boost in Hungary 12 Apr 2010 Sunday's election puts Viktor Orban's centerright Fidesz party back in charge. Orban's plans include tax cuts and help for domestic entrepreneurs and farmers. If he can also achieve reductions in stillhigh public spending, Hungary's private sector could be among the winners.
Euro zone shows Greece a little love 12 Apr 2010 Euro members have agreed that 30 billion euros could be extended at a little over 5 percent higher than euro zone yields, but much lower than what markets were demanding. Athens would ideally prefer not to tap the funds. But either way, it still faces an uphill struggle.
BoE should beware of debt monetisation 8 Apr 2010 For now, the UK central bank is in wait and see mode. But big purchases of government debt with printed money have risks, as the Fed s Fisher has pointed out. If investors think government debt is being monetised, disaster looms. The BoE shouldn t rush to add to its gilt pile.
Yuan may not be one-way bet for traders 7 Apr 2010 The Chinese authorities seem to be set to depeg the currency. Beijing wants to protect exporters and kick speculators, so expect a complex managed float, not a single big revaluation. The yuan's ultimate direction is surely upwards, but the journey may not be a straight line.
Yuan negotiations should be multilateral 1 Apr 2010 Americans complain the loudest about China's fixed currency. But the EU also runs a big trade deficit with China, and rival lowcost producers are squeezed. Widening the debate could depoliticise it but might also weaken the U.S. case. Not everyone hates the status quo.
Yuan’s rise is inevitable and helpful 31 Mar 2010 China is suffering from growing pains, including a currency that is fixed but shouldn't be. The undervalued yuan threatens to create a disastrous trade war with the U.S. But compromise is within reach. China's hot economy makes a little yuan appreciation advisable now.
California treasurer has right idea on CDS 31 Mar 2010 Bill Lockyer is asking the big banks that underwrite the state's bonds to tell him about their role in the market for related credit insurance. It's a fair question. And this kind of disclosure could be a better way to deal with CDS concerns than a hasty and simplistic ban.
Ireland risks falling into debt spiral 31 Mar 2010 The government's postbubble pain is not over. Irish banks will be propped up, adding more debts to the deficits that come with a 7 percent GDP drop. Poor recovery prospects point to evermounting debts, unless something is done. Further public sector cuts seem essential.