Middle East is complicating West’s grand strategy 15 Apr 2024 The U.S. and its allies wanted to focus on Russia and China. But the Gaza war - and now a conflict between Iran and Israel - is distracting them. It has also undermined support from poorer nations and boosted Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.
India can grow fast with or without Narendra Modi 10 Apr 2024 The prime minister is hot favourite to secure a third term, and to lead the country into another decade of economic expansion. Yet projections of 6%-plus annual GDP growth are below the country’s own track record. And hitting the mark does not depend on one man.
Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin 18 Mar 2024 To keep pumping money into his Ukraine war, the newly re-elected president will have to squeeze Russians. Nobody can prevent him from further unpopular measures. A sharp drop in oil revenue might force him to change course, but that is hard and risky for the West to bring about.
UK ‘non-dom’ slap is right move for wrong reason 6 Mar 2024 Finance minister Jeremy Hunt scrapped tax benefits for people living in the UK but officially domiciled abroad. That improves fiscal fairness and may raise over $3 bln per year. But the benefits are uncertain and the funds went to pre-election giveaways, not public services.
Excessive UK tax giveaways risk longer-term harm 5 Mar 2024 Finance minister Jeremy Hunt may spend some 15 bln pounds in pre-election fiscal gifts in Wednesday’s budget. He could be tempted to do more – and make life difficult for the next government – by further cutting public services. But that would put the country in a bind.
Joe Biden 2.0 offers chance at less global tension 19 Feb 2024 In a second term, the US president might preside over less fractious geopolitics and trade friction. He also could make a fresh push to fight climate change. American allies shouldn’t get their hopes up, though; such an agenda would face obstacles at home and abroad.
Infrastructure may take toll on big asset managers 14 Feb 2024 Investors have sunk $1 trln in safe, stable assets; BlackRock just made a $13 bln bet on the sector. But success has been spotty and higher rates make investing harder. Plus the definition of infrastructure – which includes laundry and Scandinavian fish farms – is stretching.
Economics is pushing US swing voters to pick Trump 16 Jan 2024 The real estate mogul won the Iowa caucus, the first Republican primary in the presidential race. The midwestern state is not a battleground, but hotly contested areas favor him over President Joe Biden. That may be because their residents feel poorer than four years ago.
Taiwan navigates new waters with old map 15 Jan 2024 Lai Ching-te has won his independence-leaning party an unprecedented third term. That tees up a deterioration in the island’s relationship with China and will refocus global minds on the costs of a possible confrontation. It puts pressure on Lai to find new ways to minimise risks.
Taiwan elections can weaken an unstable status quo 4 Jan 2024 The Democratic Progressives are vying for a third term but another re-election of the independence leaning party will frustrate China. While market indicators are buoyant, more of the same in the island's local politics can make Sino-US ties worse.
Green backlash will spread to European Parliament 3 Jan 2024 Pro-environment parties risk losing clout in June’s pan-EU vote. That will reinforce a strengthening bond between conservatives and far-right forces wary of the industrial and social cost of the clean transition. The EU’s ambitious Green Deal will get a paler hue.
Dutch shock points to tremors in Europe’s core 23 Nov 2023 Geert Wilders’ anti-immigrant, anti-EU Freedom Party came first in Netherlands elections. That means long coalition talks leading to an unstable, unpredictable government. His ascent hurts European policymaking and boosts chances of once fringe parties in states like France.
Social Security collides with idle golden years 9 Nov 2023 Republican presidential candidates pitched a handful of ideas for saving the US benefit, like a higher retirement age. But potential solutions can’t dent the real issues: an aging population and massive, broad overspending.
Biden’s economic scorecard touts fragile advantage 9 Nov 2023 Low unemployment and easing inflation should aid the US president’s reelection push. Yet most Americans aren’t impressed, and rising borrowing costs don’t help. A Breakingviews tally gives Biden a narrow economic lead over Republicans. The next 12 months will test that advantage.
Influencer model infects US political fundraising 27 Oct 2023 The US House elected a speaker after four people gave it a try. The chaos partly reflects how politicians now receive support. Social media enables them to reach voters without the backing of their party. The new way to create star power will disrupt politics as it has Hollywood.
Rainmakers find political hedge in Chris Christie 16 Oct 2023 Stanley Druckenmiller, David Tepper and Paul Tudor Jones have backed the former New Jersey governor for US president. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy raised cash from the Winklevii. Donald Trump is still Republican front-runner. But at this stage, it makes sense to spread cash.
Poland’s warmer EU ties may come with frozen funds 16 Oct 2023 Centre-left leader Donald Tusk is likely to be the new PM after Sunday’s election. Ending the nationalists’ rule will bring closer relations with Brussels. But to release 35 bln euros in EU aid, the new government will still have to get past right-wing President Andrzej Duda.
US grand strategy can prop up the global order 16 Oct 2023 The horror in Israel and Gaza is a new blow to a fragile world. But the United States can prevent the rules-based order from collapsing by continuing to steer a steady course with regards to Russia and China. The biggest risk would be the return of Donald Trump as president.
Elections will test Indonesia’s economic progress 16 Oct 2023 President Joko Widodo’s second and final term ends next year. His administration has brought stability and fostered investment in everything from EV metals to infrastructure. A domestic and global slowdown and a potential China backlash could taint matters for his successor.
Capital Calls: Germany, Schaeffler 9 Oct 2023 Concise views on global finance: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s resounding defeat in key local elections on Sunday sends a message to Brussels; the German group’s 3.6 bln euro acquisition of auto supplier Vitesco makes sense in an era of greater competition.