Korea’s market upgrade would draw virtuous circle 8 Mar 2022 Seoul may relax currency rules and short-selling curbs to help win developed-market status from index provider MSCI. Even one of this week’s presidential candidates is pushing for the upgrade. Some will resent losing such protection, but the broader benefits are clear.
Irish housing bind opens door to radical options 31 Jan 2022 The cost of renting in Ireland has soared, but so has the cost of buying a home. Regulatory reluctance to relax bank lending standards means demand won’t rise to help stimulate new supply. The impasse makes it more likely that leftist Sinn Féin may win the next election.
Italy’s presidential race revives political risk 24 Jan 2022 Former premier Silvio Berlusconi abandoned a divisive bid to become the country’s president. The absence of decent alternatives favours Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s ascent. If he makes the switch, however, Italy could have another ineffective government or face early elections.
Germany enlarges green transition’s grey area 2 Dec 2021 Berlin’s new coalition wants to build new plants powered by natural gas, even as it exits coal quicker. That strays from the ideal path to net-zero CO2 emissions. But the real problem is the precedent set by rich countries caving to those promoting gas as a green “bridge fuel”.
Cox: French finance will take an electoral pause 30 Nov 2021 Parisian executives who want President Emmanuel Macron to win another term will avoid deals that could become political hot potatoes for the former M&A banker. Shopping abroad is chic but domestic takeovers and synergy-squeezers are out for now. After the election, le déluge.
New German coalition has old problem with spending 24 Nov 2021 The three parties that will form the next government want to invest more in green and digital projects while respecting strict debt limits. Cutting budget subsidies and using off-balance-sheet vehicles may help. But the plans fall far too short of big-spending peers like America.
Voters are last brake on Turkey’s lunatic express 19 Nov 2021 Bullied by President Tayyip Erdogan, the central bank slashed borrowing costs to 15%. Fearing runaway inflation, the lira plunged to record lows. With few other checks on a leader at war with interest rates, 2023 elections may be Turks’ best hope of restoring monetary sanity.
Political spotlight on Carlyle after U.S. election 3 Nov 2021 The buyout firm that once employed George H.W. Bush worked for years to shed its reputation as a shrewd Beltway operator. Former co-CEO Glenn Youngkin’s win makes him Virginia’s next governor. That gives him presidential potential, and puts Carlyle back on the Washington map.
Capital Calls: U.S. deal watchdog, Italian IPO 5 Oct 2021 Concise views on global finance: Blog posts from the FTC’s competition chief reveal plans to go way bigger when extracting concessions from merging companies; Italy's $5 billion security group Leonardo is taking a second run at listing its DRS unit in the United States.
Close German vote dilutes economic reform hopes 26 Sep 2021 Socialist Olaf Scholz and his centre-right rival, Armin Laschet, will each woo the fiscally conservative Free Democrats in a bid to form a government. The tight election result hands the FDP leverage that may limit scope for big green investments and more supple EU budget rules.
Norway readies fresh round of green air guitar 14 Sep 2021 The Scandinavian state is on track for a left-wing coalition pledging to do more on climate change after eight years of conservative rule. But rapid cuts to national hydrocarbons output aren’t likely. Given Norway has a $1.4 trln wealth fund, it can afford to go beyond gesturing.
German election offers more continuity than chaos 8 Sep 2021 A three-way coalition may lead the EU’s largest economy after September’s poll. A grouping of left, right, or green lawmakers could take months to form and shirk reforms at home and in Europe. Climate change and the pandemic aftermath will still shape policy for the better.
Zambian sunlight could disperse Chinese debt fog 18 Aug 2021 The African state’s new leader, Hakainde Hichilema, has to forge a deal with creditors after last year’s default. Getting China to the table won’t be easy. Lifting Beijing’s veil of secrecy by revealing Lusaka’s loans would remove the biggest barrier, and set a good precedent.
Iran vote makes reopening an even harder sell 21 Jun 2021 Ebrahim Raisi’s election as president means hardliners will from August control the Islamic Republic. A new deal to unwind some sanctions on the country may be signed before then. But companies that were burnt by the U.S. withdrawal from an earlier accord are unlikely to return.
UK takes slow road to Scotland breakaway risk 10 May 2021 Pro-secession parties increased their majority in Scottish elections, while Boris Johnson’s Conservatives cemented their position in England. Yet even if a new referendum takes place, the outcome is far from certain. The breakup threat will take time to show up in asset prices.
Germany’s EU views will get Green jolt post-Merkel 20 Apr 2021 Armin Laschet, the ruling Christian Democrats’ pick to run for chancellor, will almost certainly have to share power with the increasingly popular pro-European Greens. Such a coalition would bode well for a sensible reform of the bloc’s fiscal rules and common debt issuance.
Hong Kong’s rich confront Chinese socialism 11 Mar 2021 The central government is changing the city’s electoral system and side-lining the local business elite. That might clear the way for a new pro-Beijing party to attack economic inequality at tycoons’ expense. Yet the Communist Party has failed to do so at home, or anywhere else.
Georgia vote may give companies half-full glass 6 Jan 2021 Democrats could eke out a Senate majority in a runoff race that’s too close to call. The slim margin would hand more power to moderates on issues like green energy and taxes, in turn helping offset greater scrutiny of firms. Either way, Corporate America can avoid the worst.
Corona Capital: Cyber Friday and Monday 30 Nov 2020 Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Online holiday shopping hits new records.
Stricken polls can work to investors’ advantage 13 Nov 2020 Opinion surveys once again underestimated Republican support in the U.S. presidential election. Yet backup options, like economy-based models and prediction markets, have their own problems. Investors’ safest bet is to watch the polls – then apply their own analytical scepticism.