Fed steps closer to horns of interest-rate dilemma 13 Jun 2018 The U.S. central bank raised rates again as expected. Low unemployment and building inflation will force the Fed to consider how high it should go to prevent overheating – a shift from worrying about keeping rates low to support the economy. Trade wars are another complication.
Penalty box hastens Deutsche’s Wall Street retreat 31 May 2018 Being branded “troubled” by the Federal Reserve, as the WSJ reported, is hardly the first stateside warning for the German lender. New CEO Christian Sewing already plans to slim the American business. Worried U.S. supervisors will give him a greater sense of urgency.
Volcker tweak reveals Powell Fed’s cautious streak 30 May 2018 Banks hoping for an overhaul of the prop-trading ban will be disappointed by the U.S. central bank’s modest revisions. Compliance costs may fall but Jerome Powell’s team doesn’t want Wall Street to go back to its freewheeling ways. It rightly retains distaste for big risk-taking.
The Exchange: Putting limits on central-bank power 4 May 2018 Central bankers emerged from the financial crisis with more clout than ever before. Can this be reconciled with democratic legitimacy? Former Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker explains why monetary authorities have become “overmighty citizens”, and how to rein them in.
U.S. bond yields may be throwing investors a curve 23 Apr 2018 The difference between short- and long-term Treasury rates is the smallest since before the financial crisis, raising fears of a coming recession. Yet the yield curve is a flawed warning, sometimes flashing years before a downturn hits. There are far better things to worry about.
Trump’s Fed is more rerun than reality TV 16 Apr 2018 Nominating economist and Pimco adviser Richard Clarida as vice chair and regulator Michelle Bowman to the board are predictable moves. With the central bank, the U.S. president has shunned the turmoil sown elsewhere in government. For investors, that's comforting continuity.
New York Fed boss starts with point to prove 3 Apr 2018 A search billed as highly inclusive ended up picking John Williams, a white, fifty-something insider, to run the key Fed district. He may have been the best candidate, but on top of managing markets and regulating Wall Street he’ll be on the spot on diversity from day one, too.
New Fed chief leaves more questions than answers 21 Mar 2018 Jay Powell sold a rate hike and hawkish economic outlook with dovish language at his first policy meeting. The central bank is divided over how low unemployment can go and whether tax cuts will spark inflation. The chair’s confident showing may buy time to resolve the tensions.
U.S. rate hike risks global fallout 21 Mar 2018 Gulf states, Hong Kong and others that peg their currency to the dollar worry that copying Fed moves will dent growth. But with five more hikes expected by the end of 2019, not doing so risks the ire of financial markets. It's a tricky dance that even China may be dragged into.
Bear Stearns is useful lesson in healthy conflict 14 Mar 2018 The Wall Street firm’s effective demise 10 years ago, like that of Lehman Brothers, was a group effort by executives and watchdogs. Now, post-crisis rules may get softened and regulators talk of forging a “partnership” with banks. A bit of mutual suspicion would be smarter.
Powell buys wiggle room with political savvy 27 Feb 2018 The new Fed chair deftly handled his first congressional testimony since taking office, giving few indications he is itching to tighten faster. If anything, his political nous and a friendly Republican majority might give the central bank more room to run the U.S. economy hot.
Trump’s next Fed pick in limbo for wrong reason 20 Feb 2018 Economist Marvin Goodfriend’s accession to the board of governors hangs in the balance after senators voiced concern about his past proposals to depreciate cash. Concern about his hawkish inflation views is fair. But penalizing him for creative thinking on a tricky issue is not.
Hints of inflation pose litmus test for Powell Fed 14 Feb 2018 U.S. consumer prices accelerated in January as the cost of food, housing, fuel and medical care rose. That’s not all bad after a decade of sub-target inflation. The fear is that new Fed boss Jerome Powell will step up the pace of rate hikes. The risk of policy error is rising.
Viewsroom: The Fed’s belated Wells Fargo beating 8 Feb 2018 Chair Janet Yellen forbids the $2 trln lender from growing bigger - on her last day in the job, and 17 months after Wells’ fake-accounts scandal hit. Meanwhile, fellow financial watchdog CFPB seems to be giving hacked Equifax a free pass. Plus: how Nintendo made a comeback.
Fed crystallizes Wells Fargo’s Tim Sloan discount 5 Feb 2018 Investors wiped $26 bln off the U.S. lender’s value after Janet Yellen censured it on her last day. That worsens the weak stock-price record since Sloan became CEO. Wells’ top line is growing more slowly than rivals’, too. A new boss could be the cultural change the bank needs.
Yellen swan song could presage Wells CEO’s 2 Feb 2018 The Fed chief used her last day in office to slap a restraining order on the $2 trln U.S. bank. It’s mostly a symbol, and a late one: boss Tim Sloan has already started to clean up the company's act. But the Fed action could persuade Wells' new chair that it’s time for a change of leader.
Bond market tightening complicates Powell’s task 31 Jan 2018 U.S. Treasury yields rose to near four-year highs even as the Fed left policy unchanged at Janet Yellen’s last meeting. A fresh growth spurt and worsening deficit outlook pose challenges for successor Jerome Powell. Hiking in a rising-rate environment is riskier for the economy.
Fed’s inflation-target rethink dodges big question 29 Jan 2018 Some U.S. rate-setters wonder about their 2 percent goal – both its level and whether it’s more a ceiling or a long-term average. The debate is welcome but could be even more radical. Today’s real issue is whether central bankers can fully explain, let alone control, inflation.
Mnuchin and Dudley exemplify a political dilemma 12 Jan 2018 The U.S. Treasury secretary, contradicting forecasts, expects tax cuts to pay for themselves. The New York Fed chief fears growing deficits and debt. Republicans may nod to the former but enough probably worry about the latter to hamper new outlays on infrastructure and the like.
Tight U.S. labor market may finally move Fed 5 Jan 2018 December’s relatively weak jobs and wage growth gives policymakers a breather. But with 2.1 mln positions created in 2017 and unemployment historically low, long-awaited pay increases - along with new tax cuts - could soon start stoking inflation. That would force the Fed’s hand.