Macron has chance to make France a better investor 8 Jun 2017 President Emmanuel Macron wants to use some of the shares the state owns to finance an innovation fund. That’s tinkering at the margin. The Republic is too activist a shareholder in some cases, too passive in others. Better to fix clearer goals for a totally revamped portfolio.
U.S. stocks and bonds are in economic tug-of-war 7 Jun 2017 Bullish equity investors have pushed the S&P 500 to new highs despite soft data and fading hopes for business friendly policies. With yields tumbling even as a new rate hike looms, fixed income is more attuned to a possible downturn. When the stories converge, it won't be pretty.
British election offers business only bad choices 7 Jun 2017 If the Labour party wins on June 8, companies face higher taxes and wage bills. If the ruling Conservatives retain power, expect more meddling and talent shortages. On balance, companies may prefer the incumbents – if only because they are less likely to carry out their promises.
White House economist will find shortage of demand 6 Jun 2017 Kevin Hassett, who is to help President Trump makes sense of U.S. growth, vowed to provide unbiased, scientific analysis. He also said immigrants and free trade would help. For an administration that plays fast and loose with facts, such views may struggle to be heard and heeded.
Qatar crisis points to quick but uncomfortable fix 6 Jun 2017 As Arab states and U.S. President Trump align against the emirate, the chance of leadership change is rising. Another reshuffle within the ruling family might unblock trade and diplomatic links without affecting Qatar’s economic prospects. But the precedent would be alarming.
British voters are sleepwalking to painful Brexit 6 Jun 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May called the election to strengthen her hand in negotiating the country’s departure from the European Union. But the political debate has barely touched on the trade-offs involved. The electorate is ill-prepared for the consequences that may follow.
Trump air-traffic plan flies with rare substance 5 Jun 2017 That's because it's based on Canada's model, years of debate and a 2016 House bill. Updated tech is overdue and the non-profit structure would cut out government without risking a private-sector windfall. Yet it's still no easy win, underlining the challenge for vaguer policies.
UK cyberspace crackdown faces reality checks 5 Jun 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May pledged new curbs on extremist propaganda and communications via YouTube, WhatsApp and the like following attacks in London and Manchester. Such promises can be good politics, but to actually happen they must make technological and economic sense.
New Irish leader is more like Renzi than Macron 5 Jun 2017 Leo Varadkar will be Ireland’s youngest prime minister, prompting comparisons with France’s Emmanuel Macron. Parallels with Italy’s former PM Matteo Renzi are more apt. His government is weak, and he could be at odds with Europe on Ireland’s chief challenges of Brexit and taxes.
Attacks on UK add tension to “strong and stable” 5 Jun 2017 Murders by militants in London and Manchester come at a time when Britain is already badly split on economic, geographic and demographic lines. Such atrocities show why Prime Minister Theresa May’s pledge of firmer government resonates, but also why it will be so hard to deliver.
Top U.S. CEOs revolt against reality TV version 2 Jun 2017 Donald Trump’s rejection of the Paris climate pact drew swift opposition from corporate bosses, including those of GE and Goldman. The Tesla and Disney chiefs quit his advisory council. Losing business support this early bodes poorly for the administration’s economic promises.
Viewsroom: Donald Trump can’t melt Paris accord 1 Jun 2017 The president is pulling America out of the climate pact signed by 195 countries in 2015. But the continued commitment from cities, companies, investors and other states will limit the damage. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs steps into a Venezuelan mess. Plus: advertisers as activists.
Spanish bank mess could make or break CoCos 1 Jun 2017 Banco Popular’s contingent capital bonds have collapsed in price, for fear they will be converted into equity. If they do so without causing chaos, it would show that CoCos are a viable instrument in a real-world bank rescue. A failure to trigger would confirm the opposite.
Politics align for Malaysia bank merger 1 Jun 2017 Efforts to squish together the country's banks have repeatedly failed. Now RHB could buy AmBank, creating a $9 bln group. After the 1MDB fund scandal, big shareholders may be keener to do a deal. A rising oil price helps too. The trick will be to keep the structure simple.
Hadas: Ending the hyperbole over pension savings 31 May 2017 The World Economic Forum wants all workers to put more aside for retirement. That may be conventional wisdom, but it is economic nonsense. For a nation, current savings cannot reduce the burdens of future pensions: if anything such reliance risks worsening the social challenge.
AIB’s IPO must balance politics and pragmatism 31 May 2017 Ireland plans to float 25 pct of the nationalised bank. A good result for the government would be a valuation similar to UK lender Lloyds. Similarities include low costs and strong market share. But AIB also has some things Lloyds doesn’t, like a bad loan ratio of 14 percent.
Trump uses carrot and stick with wrong countries 30 May 2017 The U.S. president berated NATO for not spending more on defense, putting the tally at $119 bln. In Saudi Arabia, he praised leaders and facilitated a $110 bln arms sale. Trump needs more from Europe while Riyadh is dependent on D.C. He may be better served reversing tactics.
Writing by numbers is wrong route to right message 30 May 2017 World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer wants staff to write more clearly. His rules include a strict limit on the frequency with which they can use “and”. The quest for simplicity is welcome. But as economists know, the pursuit of numerical targets can lead to perverse outcomes.
Goldman steps in avoidable $2.8 bln Venezuela mess 30 May 2017 Money managers at the firm bought oil giant PDVSA’s debt at a big discount, indirectly handing the central bank needed dollars. Investments aren’t necessarily moral choices, but can hit reputations. After trouble in Greece and Malaysia, Goldman ought to have a better nose for it.
U.S.-EU trade talks could yet be chalk and cheese 30 May 2017 Trump officials hope a transatlantic deal will be easier to forge because barriers are already low. T-TIP has its own special problems, though, including local rules for white-collar workers and protections on products like feta. Such issues can be just as tricky as tariffs.