U.S.-EU trade talks could yet be chalk and cheese 30 May 2017 Trump officials hope a transatlantic deal will be easier to forge because barriers are already low. T-TIP has its own special problems, though, including local rules for white-collar workers and protections on products like feta. Such issues can be just as tricky as tariffs.
Italian early election is least bad option 30 May 2017 Growing political backing for a voting law makes a 2017 election more likely. The new system may produce a weak coalition that would struggle to reform. But it would allow elections to be held before a tough budget stirs up anti-EU sentiment or ECB policy tightening hits growth.
RBS pays prudent price to bury Goodwin-era shame 30 May 2017 The UK bank is close to settling with investors who say they were misled in the run-up to its 2008 bailout. Doubling their payout will cost an extra 100 mln pounds. But it spares RBS the risk of losing in court and the embarrassment of revisiting ex-CEO Fred Goodwin’s decisions.
Ambani dials up the pain in sibling rivalry 30 May 2017 An upstart telecom operator led by India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, has hammered the industry. Younger brother Anil's RCom has been hit especially hard. Even after two planned deals, the group’s finances may still look rickety. New Delhi might offer a little relief.
Trump’s Paris accord call will be anticlimactic 26 May 2017 Even if the president pulls the U.S. out of the 2015 agreement, the impact should be limited. Cities, states, companies, investors and other countries will keep the anti-climate-warming momentum going. The bigger hit will be to America’s soft power and, potentially, its economy.
Jared Kushner conflicts hang on White House wall 26 May 2017 Donald Trump's son-in-law is under FBI scrutiny over Russian contacts. He and Ivanka Trump also didn't disclose their art collection. And the Kushner family used Jared's name to drum up Chinese business. The entanglements undercut his role in the administration, and its agenda.
Where to put Europe’s bank regulator? Try Bulgaria 26 May 2017 Brussels has invited member states to bid to host the European Banking Authority when its current host, Britain, quits the EU. The EBA hasn’t exactly dazzled in its handling of bank stress tests. But it could be a decent trophy for a non-euro country that feels unloved by the bloc.
Viewsroom: Trump budgets his way to la-la land 25 May 2017 Basic economics - and decency - fall by the wayside in the administration’s pitch that it can create $2 trln of revenue by cutting $3.6 trln of costs. OPEC and U.S. fields battle for oil supremacy. Zimbabwe invents the zollar. And Bill Ford escapes his CEO’s crash unscathed.
Post-election Merkel might change her spots 25 May 2017 Angela Merkel may have the option to pick the right-of-centre FDP as her new coalition partner in September, polls suggest. The FDP advocates low taxes, fiscal discipline and a euro zone without Greece. That could be an obstacle to euro reform, or a grand bargain with France.
Italy’s latest bank mess allows EU to act tough 25 May 2017 For a variety of reasons, the European Commission hasn't forced losses on Monte dei Paschi senior creditors. Tumbling bond prices of the smaller Veneto banks suggest they will be an easier target. Robust action would partially restore the credibility of Europe’s bail-in regime.
Trump budget is schizophrenic on infrastructure 24 May 2017 This week's White House plan adds $200 bln of federal money over a decade. On the flipside, though, it slashes several existing infrastructure-related programs. There are some practical suggestions but, as in the overall budget, smoke and mirrors hamper any real analysis.
Trump’s oil-reserve selloff plan is too hasty 23 May 2017 With U.S. crude imports decreasing, rethinking the size of the government's 688 mln barrel stockpile may make sense. But flattering the White House budget by $17 bln isn't a good reason for selling nearly half of it. Strategic and market factors should be the drivers.
Euro rally is on probation 23 May 2017 The single currency is at six-month highs above $1.12. The euro zone economy’s improving health is being acknowledged, and French political risk has diminished even as it has risen in the United States. Yet options prices show little conviction that the gains will continue.
Suicide bombing brings tragic twist to UK election 23 May 2017 The attack that killed at least 22 concertgoers in Manchester is Britain’s deadliest in more than a decade. Its aftermath will dominate the remaining two and a half weeks of campaigning. As in other European countries, economic issues will take a back seat to security concerns.
India’s RBI risks a reputational downgrade 23 May 2017 The central bank may pick credit agencies to rate stressed loans, and help pay for the job. It is a bid to stop borrowers shopping for good scores. That could force agencies to adapt. But the idea may lead the regulator further into commercial decision-making.
Trump’s fanciful budget relies on voodoo economics 22 May 2017 Paid parental leave and caps on repaying student loans sound appealing. But the rest of the president’s budget plan to cut $3.6 trln relies on pie-in-the-sky assumptions about employment rates and reforming Obamacare and welfare. It’s a non-starter even for a Republican Congress.
Time for UK to lose timidity on taxing property 22 May 2017 Theresa May has backed down on a so-called “dementia tax” following a backlash against older Britons using their homes to fund social care. How much the state should subsidise these costs is up for debate. But unearned housing equity should be taxed more.
Two Irans go in different directions 22 May 2017 Reformist Hassan Rouhani was re-elected president in a landslide victory over hardliners. At the same time, U.S. President Trump placed the country firmly back into the “axis of evil”. The former ought to make Iran more investor-friendly, but it’s the latter that will shape its destiny.
Spain is beginning to look more like Italy 22 May 2017 Pedro Sanchez’s unexpected victory in Socialist primaries could weaken the already fragile minority government. The risk of a crisis is low, but a more fragmented parliament, similar to Italy, makes economic reforms harder, and undermines Spain’s call for European integration.
Review: Democrats’ chief firebrand fumbles message 19 May 2017 Elizabeth Warren's "This Fight is Our Fight" reads like a marker for a 2020 White House run. The senator from Massachusetts targets Donald Trump, lobbyists and Wall Street. Tales of struggling Americans are engagingly woven into the outrage. But her rote views limit her appeal.