Cox: Proximity to Trump no blessing for stocks 27 Apr 2017 Equity-market winners and losers from the president's first 100 days are surprising. "Failing" New York Times shares have surged. White House talent providers Goldman Sachs and Exxon are down. Blackstone and Fox are flat. Distance from the Oval Office may prove a virtue.
Trump’s sketchy tax math will fail Congress test 26 Apr 2017 The president’s plan for big rate cuts relies on the unrealistic assumption that GDP will hit 3 pct and be enough to cover any revenue shortfall. The U.S. deficit, though, is growing at an alarming pace. Republican lawmakers are likely to demand a do-over before giving it a pass.
Trump finds a trade battle worth fighting 25 Apr 2017 The president is slapping a 20 pct duty on Canadian softwood after decades of officials complaining of subsidies. The administration has a good case in going after one of the nation’s closest allies. That should also give Trump some leverage – if he doesn’t overplay his hand.
Theresa May channels Margaret Thatcher in reverse 25 Apr 2017 The 1980s Conservative prime minister did unpopular things in the name of market forces, and wound up a middle-England hero. By pledging to cap fuel prices, her 2017 successor is being unashamedly interventionist. It’s hard to square with May’s vision of a “truly global Britain”.
Alitalia reaches final destination, again 25 Apr 2017 Employees at the loss-making Italian airline rejected a restructuring. A bankruptcy is likely, and a breakup or sale. Alitalia has been here before. Ending its agony would beat another fudged rescue, but could feed political discontent ahead of elections.
Trump’s first 100 days provide more art than deal 24 Apr 2017 The U.S. president is planning a flurry of events before Saturday's landmark, including another try at repealing Obamacare and the unveiling of a tax plan. Promised early policy wins have yet to materialize though. Given his record, he’d be wise not to risk a Washington shutdown.
European market reboot depends on more than Macron 24 Apr 2017 Stocks and the euro rose sharply amid relief that the French centrist made it to the second round of presidential elections. The gap between Gallic and German bond yields remains wider than six months ago, though. That reflects lingering political risks to the single currency.
Saudi austerity U-turn highlights reform hurdles 24 Apr 2017 The kingdom has restored perks for public sector workers in an attempt to preserve its broader economic agenda. Though the unpopular measures helped cut the deficit the social costs outweighed the benefits. Riyadh is learning that austerity and reform rarely work in tandem.
Winning French presidency is easy part for Macron 23 Apr 2017 Projections show the centrist reformer will face the far-right Marine Le Pen in the election's second round. Macron is the clear favourite – a relief for investors who feared the rise of anti-EU candidates. They risk ignoring how hard he will find it to deliver economic change.
Soccer attack weirdly converges risk factors 21 Apr 2017 A bombing of Borussia Dortmund's team bus was carried out by a man using leveraged options to bet against the club’s stock, prosecutors say. A similar unsuccessful plot recently involved U.S. retailer Target. The mix of financial weapons and real ones is a disturbing new trend.
White House sends new mixed message to Wall Street 21 Apr 2017 Donald Trump wants Treasury reviews of rules that discourage so-called inversion deals and set out how to resolve a failing financial institution. The orders themselves are innocuous. They may, however, encourage lax tax enforcement and fresh changes to the liquidation framework.
Review: Lessons from ghosts of tax reform past 21 Apr 2017 Donald Trump wants to overhaul the U.S. tax code. “Showdown at Gucci Gulch” chronicled the last successful revamp 31 years ago. Its tales of lobbying and partisan battles seem quaint compared with today’s polarization and political spending. Still, the saga offers useful tips.
Viewsroom: Theresa May’s big Brexit gamble 20 Apr 2017 The UK PM wants an early general election to strengthen her majority in parliament, stoking market hopes of a friendly exit from the EU. Those may be misplaced. Elsewhere, Trump’s Buy American, Hire American plan is deeply flawed. And Goldman takes a beating from Morgan Stanley.
UK proves itself a so-so green energy investor 20 Apr 2017 The government has sold its Green Investment Bank to Macquarie for 2.3 bln pounds. A 5 pct annual return over five years gives taxpayers some benefit. But as with other recent public sales, the risk is private capital reaps benefits that could have stayed with the public purse.
Trump finds one ex-Goldman banker he doesn’t love 20 Apr 2017 The White House wants to rein in the Financial Stability Board and its chairman, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. U.S. officials question the international body’s authority to identify systemically important firms. It’s another step towards global regulatory fragmentation.
Economic heresy is real winner in French election 20 Apr 2017 Investors are nervous the presidential contest will be a choice between far-right Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon. That’s unlikely. Still, candidates who are blasé about debt and hostile to the EU could get two-fifths of the vote. Their ideas may catch on.
Hadas: Governments are businesses too – sort of 19 Apr 2017 A new McKinsey report says “best practice” tools used by private companies could help the public sector provide more good things for less. There are easy global gains, where increased efficiency hurts no one. But vested interests and cultural challenges are serious obstacles.
UK election will test markets’ Brexit optimism 19 Apr 2017 Investors think Britain has a better chance of avoiding a damaging EU exit because Theresa May has called an early vote, a Breakingviews index based on asset prices shows. That view could be challenged by a campaign that will force the prime minister to clarify her policies.
Mallya arrest could energise India bad debt fight 18 Apr 2017 Liquor baron Vijay Mallya fled to the United Kingdom after banks sued to recover $1.4 billion. If his arrest leads to extradition it would make an example of the poster child of India’s bad loan problem. That would help New Delhi sell any bailout of state banks to the public.
Theresa May cashes in at peak political valuation 18 Apr 2017 Calling an election on June 8 is the British prime minister’s best chance of securing a personal mandate. Her opponents are weak or divided and the pain of leaving the European Union has yet to bite. A big majority will give her scope to take a tougher stand in Brexit talks.