“Help to Refi” could be UK’s next financial wheeze 30 Sep 2022 Prime Minister Liz Truss’s rash tax cuts have rattled the government bond market. She needs to attract investors and bring yields back down. The “Help to Buy” scheme to subsidise mortgages offers a template. Breakingviews imagines a fictional adviser taking up the challenge.
BoE remedy can only be partial cure for UK ills 29 Sep 2022 The UK central bank launched $70 bln of bond-buying after PM Liz Truss’s budget triggered market chaos. That has stemmed a financial crisis among indebted pension funds. Stopping the market exerting economic pain requires a fiscal rethink from politicians, not more BoE action.
BoE’s bond-buying U-turn is worth the risk 28 Sep 2022 The Bank of England will buy UK sovereign debt and delayed sales of its $915 bln bond portfolio due to market “dysfunction”. The danger is Governor Andrew Bailey looks too close to the government whose tax cuts caused the turmoil. Yet calmer markets make it easier to hike rates.
Investors strangle UK’s pro-growth budget at birth 26 Sep 2022 Government bond yields soared and the pound slumped following Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s 45 bln pound tax cut package. Higher interest rates will depress demand while costlier energy imports will further weaken the public finances. That risks cancelling out any boost to growth.
Italy’s right-wing winners inherit poison chalice 26 Sep 2022 Nationalist Giorgia Meloni, EU-sceptic Matteo Salvini and convicted former PM Silvio Berlusconi scored an election victory. Despite campaign unity, they disagree on sanctions and spending. The rivalries risk undermining the high-debt nation’s ability to tackle its energy crisis.
Italy’s first female leader, Amazon’s monopoly 22 Sep 2022 Far-right leader Giorgia Meloni is favourite to become prime minister after Sunday’s election. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how she will handle Rome’s debt, which is expected to reach 148% of GDP. And: the online retail giant’s antitrust battle.
How Italy could tip into a tailspin 19 Sep 2022 Investors think the country will probably muddle through if Giorgia Meloni, a former post-fascist and eurosceptic, becomes its next prime minister. But there’s still a medium-term risk that Italy’s massive debt will spin out of control, says Hugo Dixon.
Italy’s next government has tricky to-do list 13 Sep 2022 A rightist coalition is poised to win Italian general elections this month. In this week’s Exchange podcast Muzinich’s Fabrizio Pagani discusses the next executive’s immediate economic challenges. These include coping with an energy crisis, high public debt and a bailed-out bank.
Putin’s gas ploy worsens Russia’s economic plight 9 Sep 2022 The EU paid 89 bln euros for Russian oil and gas in the last six months. That helps President Vladimir Putin afford the closure of a key pipeline. But the move will speed Europe’s search for other energy sources. If the EU holds firm on sanctions, Russia’s recession will deepen.
U.S. student loan plan brings limited relief 24 Aug 2022 Joe Biden unveiled a plan to forgive a fraction of the $1.6 trln in government-issued higher-education debt. Even with a $10,000 cut, many borrowers will struggle to pay off balances while new enrollees are stuck with some old-school terms. The middle-ground fix leaves gaps.
Reality will tame next Italy PM’s spending plans 11 Aug 2022 Giorgia Meloni is on track to lead Rome’s next government. Her rightist political alliance favours big tax cuts, fiddling with 200 bln euros of European recovery funds and state intervention in Italy Inc. High public debt and EU vigilance will puncture its wildest trial balloons.
Capital Calls: Uber’s cash starts to flow 2 Aug 2022 Concise views on global finance: The $56 billion car-hailing service is growing rapidly and has started generating positive cash flow. It’s still overvalued, though.
Capital Calls: Heineken’s post-Covid bounce 1 Aug 2022 Concise views on global finance: Beer drinkers are quaffing more than before the pandemic, despite higher prices. But the Dutch brewer’s decision to scrap its 2023 operating profit margin target suggests it can’t entirely escape rising costs.
Ukraine needs hard cash more than debt relief 21 Jul 2022 The war-torn country needs $9 bln a month to cover its costs. Its central bank is running out of reserves. A bond payment freeze will help, but only at the margin. Western allies need to launch a coordinated aid effort to keep the country afloat.
ECB risks forgetting 1990s currency crisis lessons 18 Jul 2022 President Christine Lagarde may soon unveil the central bank’s tool to control sovereign bond yields. Struggles with semi-fixed exchange rates before the euro offer a cautionary tale. To fend off speculative attack, authorities are best off keeping targets and methods vague.
Raging crisis puts Sri Lanka’s creditors on spot 11 Jul 2022 Protesters are forcing out the president after petrol pumps ran dry. It removes one obstacle to an IMF rescue. Now bondholders need to swallow big losses on Colombo’s $50 bln of foreign debt. An ugly global economy means citizens and lenders face a long, hard road to recovery.
Japan’s Kishida inherits growing China headache 11 Jul 2022 The Prime Minister’s party increased its majority in Sunday’s election after former leader Shinzo Abe was shot. It’s now easier for Fumio Kishida to crank up defence spending and attack waning competitiveness. The former will anger China’s leaders; the latter will amuse them.
Italy starts countdown to risky life after Draghi 5 Jul 2022 The 5-Star party may bring down Mario Draghi’s coalition government. A crisis would hurt growth and raise the chances of a less EU-friendly executive. Worse, market jitters due to rising political uncertainty may complicate the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame bond yields.
Macron’s travails could turn into fiscal mess 5 Jul 2022 The French president’s electoral platform was bound to stress the state budget. Now a deadlocked parliament may only agree on increased spending and more tax cuts. With borrowing above 110% of GDP, and no credible plan to control public finances, Paris’s debt looks vulnerable.
Capital Calls: Chinese fishermen, UK’s Jupiter 28 Jun 2022 Concise views on global finance: Joe Biden goes after the People’s Republic’s commercial fishing fleet; the fund manager’s new chief executive has an even tougher task than his predecessor.