Cannabis stocks have whiff of 2006 14 Sep 2018 A weed ETF has doubled in price in just over a year, while a Canadian producer has been targeted by an activist because its stock “only” trades at eight times EBITDA. Demand is real and legalization is coming. But online gaming’s sharp correction 12 years ago offers a warning.
Brexit is confronted with its own contradictions 12 Jul 2018 Theresa May’s exit plan involves the UK sticking to EU goods rules in return for symbolic but uncertain benefits on immigration and trade. Even if Brussels accepts the convoluted customs arrangement, Britain’s parliament may not. A dangerous standoff looms later this year.
May’s Brexit plan faces battle on three fronts 9 Jul 2018 The resignation of two cabinet ministers emboldens hardliners who say PM Theresa May’s proposal to quit the EU is too soft. But opposition parties think it’s too hard, while Brussels will demand more concessions. That increases the chances Brexit will be chaotic – or be delayed.
Brexit dividend will be cashed in euros 6 Jul 2018 Nine months before Britain is due to leave the European Union its departure terms remain unclear. Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest plan cannot provide the certainty businesses seek: hence the shifting of investment and people elsewhere. Banks look set to lose whatever happens.
EU immigration deal papers over two big problems 29 Jun 2018 A fudge on migration whipped up by leaders satisfies Italy’s new government and gives German Chancellor Angela Merkel something that may placate her Bavarian allies. But the former’s confrontational stance and the domestic weakness of the latter remain worrying fault lines.
Migrants may offer for-profit prisons a reprieve 26 Jun 2018 The prospect of detaining immigrant families for months or longer could mean big bucks for incarceration factories CoreCivic and GEO Group. It’s one way these listed U.S. companies can hope to offset an aging population and reduced drug sentences threatening their businesses.
Bad economics worsen cruel U.S. immigration push 19 Jun 2018 Separating children from parents illegally entering the country isn’t just immoral, it’s expensive. Detention costs could hit up to $100 mln for one month, eating into a $3.2 bln deportation budget. Given immigrants are good for the economy, it’s a double whammy of dumb policy.
DIY approach weakens Europe’s migration defences 19 Jun 2018 Fewer people are coming from Africa, but managing immigration is the EU’s main political issue. A unified push to screen refugees in third countries could help prevent a full-blown crisis. By contrast, piecemeal solutions in Germany and Italy would be costly and ineffective.
Review: America’s founding was all about the money 13 Apr 2018 “New World, Inc.” explores the role of British merchant adventurers in laying the groundwork for the colonial settlements in Virginia and Plymouth. The book is a prequel of sorts to the Pilgrim creation myth that suggests Mammon, not religious freedom, drove America's creation.
Trade and immigration loom over U.S. jobs outlook 6 Apr 2018 Payroll gains in March were disappointing, but the monthly average for the first quarter was a strong 202,000. Corporate tax cuts are supposed to boost economic growth from last year’s 2.3 pct. Saber-rattling on tariffs is a headwind, though – and fewer immigrants could be, too.
Viewsroom: Trump slaps tariff fear on markets 8 Mar 2018 Imposing levies on steel and aluminum has lost the president his economic adviser, ex-Goldman No. 2 Gary Cohn. That has shocked investors out of complacency. Also: Italy’s elections leave fringe parties in charge. And big deals may be back on the agenda for the mining industry.
Trump’s immigration aims undermine economic goals 5 Mar 2018 Court rulings are preventing the deportation of people who entered the U.S. illegally as minors even as protections were due to expire. Yet many remain in legal limbo, and the White House wants to reduce new arrivals. Faster growth, which depends on migrants, will be a casualty.
Tax cuts are looking like rare Trump win 19 Jan 2018 The U.S. president’s first anniversary coincides with a possible federal funding hiatus. Slashing corporate taxes last month was a GOP success and the administration now wants infrastructure investment. But the shutdown wrangling is indicative of the partisan deadlock to come.
Hadas: Malthus, Condorcet and “shithole” economics 17 Jan 2018 The English curate was totally wrong about permanent poverty, but the legacy of his grim expectations still clouds judgments. His lesser-known French rival was a better guide. Condorcet would have expected the recent progress in countries the U.S. president seems to despise.
Review: Why Brexit will ultimately please nobody 15 Dec 2017 Britons voted to leave the EU for myriad and conflicting reasons, according to “Brexit and British Politics”. It’s hard to see a settlement that addresses them all. The risk is that voters see Brexit as another betrayal by politicians, fuelling the disaffection that caused it.
Europe poorly placed for Austria’s rightward drift 16 Oct 2017 The far-right Freedom Party scored well in the country’s election and may enter government. It has been in power before. However, its presence could make Europe’s immigration problem harder to manage, and further integration harder to agree. Centrifugal forces have not gone away.
Trump’s petty fight upsets art of the tax deal 9 Oct 2017 The U.S. president’s relationship with Republican lawmaker Bob Corker soured further during a Twitter argument. Yet the Tennessean’s support is critical to push tax reform in the Senate, where the GOP has a slim majority. The squabbling endangers a plan that is already under attack.
Dream of U.S. job surge is partly in Trump’s hands 1 Sep 2017 Although August’s 156,000 new positions fell short of forecasts, the trend is steady. Yet the president may soon subject nearly 800,000 children of illegal immigrants to deportation. Some 30,000 could lose jobs each month; GDP would suffer too. That’s an avoidable hit to growth.
Merkel matters less than her next coalition allies 18 Aug 2017 The German chancellor is poised to win a fourth term in September’s vote. However, Angela Merkel may well be forced to govern with a small majority in partnership with the Free Democrats. That party’s trenchant calls for even more austerity are bad news for Germany and Europe.
Britain tries Trojan Horse trade tactic in Ireland 17 Aug 2017 The EU wants the Northern Ireland border issue resolved before the UK’s wider exit terms can be agreed. New proposals from London effectively couch Britain’s trade agenda in concern for the peace process. Having Dublin onside raises the chances of Britain getting what it wants.