Labour

Capital Calls: US government shutdown

29 Sep 2023

Concise views on global finance: Civil servants, who already earn 24% less than the market rate, lose their pay when Washington closes. Legislators, meanwhile, keep collecting their $174,000 salaries. Having skin in the game would help focus congressional minds.

Long US shutdown is avoidable but seems inevitable

26 Sep 2023

A group of Republicans are holding up approval of a $1.5 trln budget because they want $60 bln in cuts. Fiscal responsibility is fair enough, but they’re being contradictory and unreasonable. Even if Republicans were to reach an agreement today, other issues will get in the way.

Hollywood’s brief thaw belies a long winter

25 Sep 2023

The film and TV writers’ union has tentatively agreed to a contract. That will gin up content production for streaming services that came to a screeching halt during a five-month strike. The trouble is the entertainment complex from acting to distribution is flawed.

Carmakers will blink first in union standoff

22 Sep 2023

The UAW is expanding strikes at GM and Stellantis, but not at Ford, where the union sees progress. Divide-and-conquer will stretch labor funds and selectively boost the financial impact – some $48 mln a week at the F-Series pickup manufacturer alone. Workers have the upper hand.

Uncle Sam risks recession by a thousand cuts

22 Sep 2023

A government stoppage would shave a sliver from US economic expansion. Restarting student loan payments will have a similar effect. Add striking autoworkers, high oil prices and costly mortgages, and 0.8% growth forecast for the fourth quarter and 0.5% in early 2024 look shaky.

Capital Calls: Four-day workweek

19 Sep 2023

Concise views on global finance: US Senator Bernie Sanders joined striking autoworkers in urging a conversation about shortening the workweek. Rising productivity has long enabled labor to win fewer hours. With disruptive new technologies rising, bigger victories make sense.

Deaths haunt Corporate America via labor strikes

15 Sep 2023

Auto workers, pilots, and truck drivers have had upper hands in labor strikes. That’s despite labor supply healing. One reason may be that men have left the workforce. Opioids and Covid are partly to blame. But it highlights the dangers of demographically concentrated jobs.

Capital Calls: Ford’s threats

15 Sep 2023

Concise views on global finance: The $50 bln automaker’s boss suggests that a strike could have dire consequences. The problem is that workers can see the $10 billion in cash sitting on Ford’s balance sheet.

Detroit profit engine could screech to a halt

14 Sep 2023

Years-long employment contracts meant auto workers missed out on post-pandemic gains. New demands could halve Ford and GM profit. The companies may prefer one-off rewards. But unions have little incentive to accept. Instead, transition plans may be wounded, and both sides pay.

Capital Calls: Lithium M&A

4 Sep 2023

Concise views on global finance: Albemarle’s $4.3 bln sweetened all-cash offer for lithium miner Liontown has financial merit, as well as offering it a handy hedge against Chile’s plan to nationalise resource assets.

Capital Calls: Temps frayed

1 Sep 2023

Concise views on global finance: Despite adding another 187,000 jobs in August, the number of short-term workers such as event staff kept falling in the United States. It’s a sign of a weakening labor market and, history suggests, a recessionary omen.

Aussie gas strike risk has market fighting old war

24 Aug 2023

Possible industrial action on key rigs added 41% to the fossil fuel’s European price. Yet with storage nearly full, it trades at a fraction of last year’s peak. Real fear of a new supply crunch would lift it far more. No wonder Woodside and Chevron are taking talks to the wire.

Leaving the office for dead may haunt investors

23 Aug 2023

Landlords’ valuations are half pre-pandemic levels due to the boom in hybrid work. Yet looser labour markets are giving bosses more power and companies like Google want staff to spend more time in their buildings. Fund managers betting on a trend reversal may be on to a winner.

Biden has too much confidence in Bidenomics

20 Jul 2023

The president’s new slogan parades a revival of US manufacturing and jobs. Spreading the word now, however, could backfire. Sticky inflation and slower hiring are out of Biden’s control, and they could leave voters poorer or jobless by the time they reach the ballot box.

How to breathe life into zombie office property

18 Jul 2023

Lenders are steering clear of buildings that face reckonings from remote working, pushing prices down. In this Exchange podcast, real estate investor Scott Rechler argues that it will take financial and civic engagement to make empty space desirable for living – and investing.

In US, strike now or forever hold your peace

17 Jul 2023

Hollywood’s first joint walkout by writers and actors in six decades adds to a year riven by strikes. A hot labor market strengthened workers’ hands, but as hiring slows, bosses will reassert themselves. That could prompt more employees to flex their power while they still can.

China risks leaving it too late to stimulate

17 Jul 2023

The world’s second-largest economy grew a slower-than-expected 6.3% in the second quarter. Yet despite weakness in property and consumption, there are pockets of strength. Hitting the 2023 growth target looks less certain and a sharper slowdown could yet catch Beijing off guard.

Central banks’ calls for pay restraint ring hollow

29 Jun 2023

Western central bankers want workers to ask for lower raises unless firms cut their margins to compensate staff. With salaries growing less than inflation, that’s a harsh demand. Past rate rises will in time cool labour markets. Officials need to talk less and wait longer.

Supply chain scrutiny may upend EU solar ambitions

23 May 2023

Renewable groups must forgo photovoltaic components from China’s Xinjiang to comply with forced labour curbs. Yet the region produces 35% of the pure silicon needed in panels, and US firms are scooping up the non-Chinese supply. Enforcing a ban may scupper EU green targets.

Disney can play Scrooge with Florida

19 May 2023

The $170 billion media company has cancelled a $1 bln project in the state, favoring California. If political wrangling between the two sides continues to intensify, the House of Mouse’s pullback from Florida promises even more pain for Governor Ron DeSantis.