Crude-backed crypto-coin is mostly snake oil 8 Dec 2017 An ex-CFTC commissioner is launching a digital currency backed by the commodity. His promise of stable value sits oddly against bitcoin’s wild ride. While it offers a tax edge over oil-backed ETFs, it’s hard to imagine this coin existing if not for the wider crypto craze.
Shareholder ethos holds back U.S. wage growth 8 Dec 2017 The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in November but wage growth remained tepid. President Trump claims the GOP tax bill will lead to big raises but most companies plan to spend profit on buybacks and dividends. When the market is king, workers tend to come last.
Britain heads for Brexit in name only 8 Dec 2017 Theresa May’s deal with the European Union averts a chaotic divorce for now. But a fudge about the Irish border exposes the difficulty of preserving trade while leaving the bloc. A transition phase will create scope for May - or another prime minister - to make new concessions.
Seoul’s contrarian tax hike makes for good start 8 Dec 2017 President Moon bucked global trends by raising South Korean corporate taxes to 25 pct from 22 pct and lifting the minimum wage. That will help curb the giants stifling competitiveness and fuelling inequality. Next comes tightening antitrust screws and lowering takeover barriers.
China’s new regulator could tighten bank squeeze 7 Dec 2017 The China Banking Regulatory Commission’s new vice chair is a confidant of former anti-corruption czar Wang Qishan. Watchdogs are already clamping down on the financial sector. As people from Wang’s no-nonsense camp join the fray, banks and their investors should brace for more.
Fed forecasts just enough sunshine for stress tests 7 Dec 2017 The central bank wants to provide more information about its models for loan losses and other inputs in the annual exams. That would suit lenders who complain the process is too opaque. But the Fed would retain some mystery, striking a balance that boosts the test’s credibility.
New bank rules are kind without being weak 7 Dec 2017 Big lenders will need a trifling 27.6 billion euros of fresh equity capital under new Basel regulation. Rules on the use of internal models are no worse than feared, and kick in slowly. This is hardly draconian – but that’s because banks have already done much of what was needed.
Bitcoin looks like speeded-up unicorn hype 7 Dec 2017 A sheen of futurism, fear of missing out, a lack of fundamental value, and an inability of big backers to sell without crashing the market are factors pumping up the digital currency’s price. It’s like accelerated startup funding rounds. The danger is a Theranos-like bloodbath.
U.S. coal country’s best hope is gas, not coal 6 Dec 2017 The EIA says natural gas output from shale in the Appalachian region – traditionally America’s coal heartland – far outgrew other areas. Efficiency gains will further cut gas costs. Dirtier miners may lobby for Washington handouts, but the shift is already well under way.
Trump and Warren make odd antitrust bedfellows 6 Dec 2017 The liberal senator says mega-deals like Aetna’s $77 bln sale to CVS kill competition. She backs the DOJ fighting AT&T-Time Warner and has concerns about past merger remedies. It puts her in the same camp as the president. Such an alliance of convenience puts pressure on big M&A.
Hadas: The mystery of lost competition 6 Dec 2017 The U.S. tax cut is expected to boost corporate earnings but not lower prices or raise wages. That implies there’s too much tacit collusion for basic economic theory to work as designed. Limited price competition is great for shareholder value, but bad for the economy.
France and Germany look too alike to bond market 6 Dec 2017 The gap between French and German bond yields this week hit its lowest since 2009. Plans to revamp the way the euro zone works may spur investors to overlook differences between countries’ public finances. But a lack of discrimination is premature, and stores up fresh problems.
Brexit deal hinges on enlightened obfuscation 5 Dec 2017 A plan for Northern Ireland to accept some EU rules has met with opposition in Belfast and demands for similar treatment elsewhere. Prime Minister Theresa May's best hope is to fudge tough decisions, and use the threat of a chaotic exit – or another election – to quash dissent.
ICO bust heralds U.S. crypto-currency rules chaos 4 Dec 2017 The SEC has taken its first action against a coin offering, alleging the perpetrators fraudulently raised $15 mln. The CFTC, though, just gave the green light to bitcoin futures. The growing regulatory discord on virtual currencies increases the risks to investors.
Rushed U.S. tax bill rewards oil, real estate 4 Dec 2017 The Republican Senate plan snuck in tax breaks for oil and gas partnerships, real-estate investment trusts and other sectors. One hiccup puts the research tax credit favored by business at risk. But overall, corporate America and the wealthy may receive an early Christmas gift.
GOP casts principle aside in scramble for tax win 2 Dec 2017 Senate Republicans passed a tax cut plan after last-minute changes papering over deficit concerns and the bill’s tilt to the wealthy. Differences with the House must be reconciled. But an escalating Russian influence probe makes the party even more frantic to claim a victory.
Wall St poised to stop worrying and love bitcoin 1 Dec 2017 Crypto-currencies are set to take center stage. Mike Novogratz is launching a hedge fund, exchanges are teeing up futures contracts, big banks are likely to enter the fray and even the Fed is taking notice. It may end in tears, but the industry won’t ignore a $300 bln market.
Holding: Bet on Supreme Court to lift gambling ban 1 Dec 2017 New Jersey’s suit to legalize sports wagers makes financial policy sense, but the constitutional argument is stronger. Limits on the feds’ power mean states do their own thing on everything from pot to guns. A court already inclined that way is likely to extend it to betting.
Guest view: Bitcoin bubble obscures real worth 30 Nov 2017 Crypto-currencies are like South Sea Company shares: unanalyzable, but here to stay. For one thing, they offer a government-proof store of wealth. For another, real technological advances exist along with the scams. More stable prices are, however, needed for long-term value.
Botched process leads to Frankenstein tax plan 30 Nov 2017 U.S. Senate Republicans are rushing into a vote on their tax-cut effort. Changes to appease GOP critics have yet to be settled, including a trigger to raise taxes if growth falls short. Lower-income Americans will also face higher bills. Lawmakers are creating a scary mess.