Cox: Proximity to Trump no blessing for stocks 27 Apr 2017 Equity-market winners and losers from the president's first 100 days are surprising. "Failing" New York Times shares have surged. White House talent providers Goldman Sachs and Exxon are down. Blackstone and Fox are flat. Distance from the Oval Office may prove a virtue.
FCC puts dubious faith in U.S. broadband oligopoly 26 Apr 2017 New Chairman Ajit Pai wants to roll back rules that classify high-speed internet as a utility. He reasonably points to reduced investment following their implementation. A defanged regulator overseeing dominant providers of a crucial service, however, would be bad for customers.
Trump’s sketchy tax math will fail Congress test 26 Apr 2017 The president’s plan for big rate cuts relies on the unrealistic assumption that GDP will hit 3 pct and be enough to cover any revenue shortfall. The U.S. deficit, though, is growing at an alarming pace. Republican lawmakers are likely to demand a do-over before giving it a pass.
Hadas: Nationalists are united by economic muddle 26 Apr 2017 Brexit fans want freer trade, Marine Le Pen is a protectionist and Donald Trump can’t make up his mind. Populists also disagree on fiscal deficits and industrial policy. What they share is an aversion to the truth that national prosperity starts with compromises on sovereignty.
Trump finds a trade battle worth fighting 25 Apr 2017 The president is slapping a 20 pct duty on Canadian softwood after decades of officials complaining of subsidies. The administration has a good case in going after one of the nation’s closest allies. That should also give Trump some leverage – if he doesn’t overplay his hand.
Theresa May channels Margaret Thatcher in reverse 25 Apr 2017 The 1980s Conservative prime minister did unpopular things in the name of market forces, and wound up a middle-England hero. By pledging to cap fuel prices, her 2017 successor is being unashamedly interventionist. It’s hard to square with May’s vision of a “truly global Britain”.
IPO delay lifts spotlight off China’s shadow banks 25 Apr 2017 The first listing of a mainland trust company in 20 years is up in the air after it missed a Hong Kong regulatory deadline. This is a pity. The listing would have helped outsiders decipher the high-yielding trust products at the core of China’s intricate shadow-banking industry.
U.S. “animal spirits” are turning into zombies 24 Apr 2017 The bump in U.S. stock prices and bond yields after November's election is still there, but fading. Donald Trump's business-friendly ideas are looking less likely to get through Congress. And if yardsticks measuring protectionism are any guide, that threat has evaporated.
Trump’s first 100 days provide more art than deal 24 Apr 2017 The U.S. president is planning a flurry of events before Saturday's landmark, including another try at repealing Obamacare and the unveiling of a tax plan. Promised early policy wins have yet to materialize though. Given his record, he’d be wise not to risk a Washington shutdown.
European market reboot depends on more than Macron 24 Apr 2017 Stocks and the euro rose sharply amid relief that the French centrist made it to the second round of presidential elections. The gap between Gallic and German bond yields remains wider than six months ago, though. That reflects lingering political risks to the single currency.
Taiwan, not China, is its own worst enemy 24 Apr 2017 Complacence has left the island in an economic funk. China-sceptic President Tsai, elected on a tide of domestic discontent, has a $29 bln stimulus package to bolster growth, but bolder reforms are hobbled by politics. That may leave Taiwan even more dependent on its neighbour.
Winning French presidency is easy part for Macron 23 Apr 2017 Projections show the centrist reformer will face the far-right Marine Le Pen in the election's second round. Macron is the clear favourite – a relief for investors who feared the rise of anti-EU candidates. They risk ignoring how hard he will find it to deliver economic change.
Soccer attack weirdly converges risk factors 21 Apr 2017 A bombing of Borussia Dortmund's team bus was carried out by a man using leveraged options to bet against the club’s stock, prosecutors say. A similar unsuccessful plot recently involved U.S. retailer Target. The mix of financial weapons and real ones is a disturbing new trend.
White House sends new mixed message to Wall Street 21 Apr 2017 Donald Trump wants Treasury reviews of rules that discourage so-called inversion deals and set out how to resolve a failing financial institution. The orders themselves are innocuous. They may, however, encourage lax tax enforcement and fresh changes to the liquidation framework.
Review: Lessons from ghosts of tax reform past 21 Apr 2017 Donald Trump wants to overhaul the U.S. tax code. “Showdown at Gucci Gulch” chronicled the last successful revamp 31 years ago. Its tales of lobbying and partisan battles seem quaint compared with today’s polarization and political spending. Still, the saga offers useful tips.
Markets back Dimon not Kashkari on too-big-to-fail 21 Apr 2017 JPMorgan's boss reckons banks are no longer irresolvable while the Minneapolis Fed president argues debt designed to absorb losses is flawed. One is putting too much confidence in the workout process and the other too little. Dimon has been more persuasive with bond investors.
Deutsche offers investors a too-big-to-fail test 21 Apr 2017 The German lender’s latest U.S. regulatory thwack comes as it asks creditors to swap bail-in bonds for SEC-registered ones with clearer terms. It implicitly tests Berlin’s model for resolving banks. It’s also a reminder of the benefits Deutsche gets from being a global bank.
Viewsroom: Theresa May’s big Brexit gamble 20 Apr 2017 The UK PM wants an early general election to strengthen her majority in parliament, stoking market hopes of a friendly exit from the EU. Those may be misplaced. Elsewhere, Trump’s Buy American, Hire American plan is deeply flawed. And Goldman takes a beating from Morgan Stanley.
Trump finds one ex-Goldman banker he doesn’t love 20 Apr 2017 The White House wants to rein in the Financial Stability Board and its chairman, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. U.S. officials question the international body’s authority to identify systemically important firms. It’s another step towards global regulatory fragmentation.
Economic heresy is real winner in French election 20 Apr 2017 Investors are nervous the presidential contest will be a choice between far-right Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon. That’s unlikely. Still, candidates who are blasé about debt and hostile to the EU could get two-fifths of the vote. Their ideas may catch on.