Trump’s dealmaking falls sick – for now 24 Mar 2017 Republicans in Congress wouldn’t support an alternative, so Obamacare will live on. Efforts to undermine it will continue. Meanwhile, medical costs still outpace inflation. Unless that changes, the choice between squeezing costs and rationing care will remain on lawmakers’ minds.
Guest view: The $1 trln trade deal anyone can love 24 Mar 2017 Even as NAFTA, TPP and other global accords come under siege, one WTO agreement was quietly just put into force. It'll help countries and companies big and small save money by getting goods across borders quicker, says Andrew Wilson, who runs a Chamber of Commerce affiliate.
Markets would miss Japan’s reformer-in-chief 24 Mar 2017 Investors are relaxed about a scandal involving Premier Shinzo Abe's wife. But the episode underscores a vulnerability. Abe's grand economic overhaul has broad support - but it is called "Abenomics" for a reason. A weaker leader would struggle to keep up the momentum.
China’s offshore bond revival could be brief 24 Mar 2017 Companies are rushing to sell dollar bonds overseas, aided by a new ability to issue onshore guarantees. Yield-hungry foreign investors are keen. But as liquidity tightens and rates rise, expect more defaults. Those pledges could prove unreliable if things go wrong.
Wall Street insider risks further polarizing SEC 23 Mar 2017 Attorney Jay Clayton, Trump’s pick to lead the agency, will have to sit out decisions on Goldman Sachs and other clients. That increases the prospect of tie votes that can block or diminish enforcement. Deadlock also promises to exacerbate the agency’s politicization.
Co-op bail-in would set bank creditors on edge 23 Mar 2017 The Co-operative Bank needs capital again, and markets are fretting over the risk of a resolution. Given Co-op’s ongoing losses, the Bank of England could justify one. The risk is investors think that even banks with respectable capital ratios aren’t safe from regulators.
Trump’s immigration policies may put Canada first 22 Mar 2017 The U.S. president praised his neighbor’s merit-based entry system for foreigners. But administration restrictions on H-1B visas may deter high-skilled workers and their employers. That could send tech and engineering talent north to friendlier hosts, hurting American firms.
Markets can ease Bank of England inflation dilemma 21 Mar 2017 Prices rose 2.3 pct in February, surpassing the central bank’s target for the first time since 2013. Market rates and sterling rose. This tightening in monetary conditions might allow Governor Mark Carney to defer a hike in official rates until the economic outlook is clearer.
Brexit could weaken Britain’s puny productivity 21 Mar 2017 As in most developed countries, UK companies are struggling to produce more with the same workers. Exporters and foreign-owned firms are the notable exceptions. If leaving the European Union squeezes trade and shrinks foreign investment, living standards will suffer.
France’s Macron passes first of three big tests 21 Mar 2017 The independent presidential hopeful was, according to a poll, the most convincing candidate in a debate where he had the most to lose. His next challenge is to win the election. Even if he does, legislative ballots will decide whether the ex-banker can deliver promised reforms.
Tussle over Fed deputy suggests wider policy rift 20 Mar 2017 A clash between presidential economic adviser Gary Cohn and Treasury’s Steven Mnuchin is delaying the naming of a vice chair of supervision. Mnuchin’s refusal to reject protectionism at the G20 suggests a deeper split over trade. Goldman alums don’t guarantee policy coherence.
Holding: Supreme Court may show Trump who’s boss 20 Mar 2017 Currently pro-business, it could back White House moves to cut regulation and union fees. The tribunal has been ruling against presidents more often, however, a new study shows. That means even if Neil Gorsuch gets a robe, The Donald may lose on close cases like immigration.
China-Hong Kong “bond connect” has dual benefits 20 Mar 2017 Beijing is firming up plans to let mainland and Hong Kong investors trade in each other's debt markets. The tie-up will make it easier to get Chinese bonds into world indexes. It should also boost trading and push up prices in the territory's fixed income market.
Stars align for Vietnam’s privatisation push 20 Mar 2017 Hanoi's desire to tame the budget deficit and boost efficiency bodes well for the sale of state assets, including big brewers. A buoyant stock market helps. But in the rush to secure fat listing valuations, Vietnam risks driving away the foreign buyers it needs.
Corona Capital, March 17: Boeing, AB InBev, Retail 17 Mar 2020 Breakingviews has launched a daily column covering pandemic-related insights that you might have missed. Throughout the day, we’ll bring you shorter-than-usual views with the same financial savvy on companies, economies and capital markets during this important unfolding story.
Market angst about France infects whole of EU 17 Mar 2017 Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has promised to reshape French ties with the European Union if elected president. That would be an existential test for the whole bloc. Currency options prices show investors have rarely been so anxious about the EU-wide impact of a single event.
Japan’s tight-fisted bosses face pay reckoning 17 Mar 2017 Staff are due another year of tiny pay rises. That reflects deep corporate caution, and will not help generate healthier levels of inflation. But the balance of power is ripe to shift in employees' favour, leading to more robust wage growth and easing a big headache for Japan.
Cox: Please don’t let the Fed become the new SEC 16 Mar 2017 With legislators from both parties critical of the U.S. central bank, the risk of its politicization looms large. Donald Trump has three empty board seats to fill, and maybe two more in 2018. The flawed experience at the securities enforcement agency offers a cautionary tale.
U.S. workforce could use some German engineering 16 Mar 2017 Donald Trump wants to bring back manufacturing jobs despite a lack of skilled labor. Executives advising the president point to the success of European apprenticeships. There are educational and cultural challenges in America, but it's a good time for more radical training ideas.
Trump’s budget plan exhibits poor risk management 16 Mar 2017 The U.S. president wants to slash money for healthcare research, job training and clean water in favor of beefing up an already well-funded defense. His $1.1 trln blueprint discounts too many dangerous economic threats. America can't afford to forgo long-term investments.