Dominican Republic economy faces tricky crosswinds 30 Dec 2016 The Caribbean nation of 10 mln has notched the strongest GDP growth in the Western Hemisphere for the third year running - over 6 pct for 2016. Low oil prices, pro-business reforms, U.S. growth and an influx of cash from Venezuela all helped. The perfect storm won't keep blowing.
Viewsroom Predictions 2017: Part 1 30 Dec 2016 Breakingviews columnists from Europe, Asia and the United States discuss what’s ahead, including Donald Trump and inequality, how smaller M&A deals will shine over big acquisitions, and why Disney may ponder buying Netflix. Plus, what we got right – and wrong – about 2016.
Pharma’s middlemen will feel the squeeze in 2017 30 Dec 2016 The U.S. healthcare system's opacity and complexity have stoked drug prices, fueling the flow of dollars to insurers, wholesalers and pharmacy benefit managers. The growth of high-deductible insurance will bring much-needed transparency - and unaccustomed pressure on these firms.
Investment banks’ next trade will be EU education 30 Dec 2016 No European city has as many international school places as London. That’s a problem for firms thinking of asking staff to move their families out of the UK capital following the Brexit referendum. The solution will be for banks to get into the education business themselves.
Hadas: Russian Revolution won’t be the last 30 Dec 2016 Soviet communism initially looked like the future, but rapidly became a cruel failure. Its disappearance left big-government democratic capitalism as the sole surviving system. A century later, that hybrid model is now under global threat. It might not last another century.
India is gearing up to recapitalise its big banks 30 Dec 2016 The country's lenders already need $27 bln or more of capital. Now Premier Narendra Modi's scrapping of high-value banknotes could lead to a spike in bad loans at small businesses. That might rally support for a move and help Modi as he repositions himself as a champion of the poor.
Trump’s job spin pales beside Obama’s recovery 29 Dec 2016 Some 8,000 new roles at Sprint and OneWeb touted by the U.S. president-elect already were planned, part of a bigger pledge by investor SoftBank. Economic activity is creating 180,000 positions monthly. To keep that going much longer will require more than Trump's double-talk.
Hadas: Four resolutions for a more humane economy 3 Jan 2017 Brexit and Donald Trump’s election are part of a rebellion against the social and economic establishment. Changes are needed to prevent a dangerous disintegration. Here are some suggestions: forget GDP, fight alienation, support communities and promote local decision-making.
American inequality will widen under Trump in 2017 29 Dec 2016 A populist wave sent the real-estate developer to the White House. But his economic policies will help working-class folks the least. His tax cuts, repatriation of corporate cash and infrastructure push will line the pockets of the rich before trickling down to the less well-off.
Psychedelic drugs enlighten $2.5 trillion problem 29 Dec 2016 That was the cost of mental illness in 2010, an expense set to double by 2030, says the World Economic Forum. Psilocybin, magic mushrooms' active ingredient, has alleviated suffering in clinical trials. Illicit stigma aside, high returns on investment could make it worth a trip.
China’s slow salt reform leaves sour aftertaste 29 Dec 2016 China is finally dissolving the world's oldest monopoly. The government's difficulty loosening its grip on the salt trade, which accounts for a tiny fraction of government revenue, suggests dim prospects for reform in more lucrative sectors such as tobacco or telecoms.
Diverging central banks will power dollar in 2017 28 Dec 2016 Donald Trump’s promise of increased U.S. government spending and the likelihood of tighter Fed policy contrast with continued weak growth and loose monetary conditions in the euro zone and Japan. That means the greenback is set to get stronger against most other currencies.
Guest view: China’s currency faces big 2017 test 28 Dec 2016 With rising U.S. interest rates and trade tensions, stop-gap measures from Chinese authorities won't keep the renminbi from depreciating, argues former Citibank executive William Rhodes. The longer reforms are postponed, the greater will be the eventual cost to economic growth.
Dow 20,000 is the market’s version of fake news 28 Dec 2016 The post-election rally has pushed the storied average to the verge of a new milestone. Though not artificial, it's virtually meaningless. Other things – PE ratios, growth rates, fiscal spending and tax rates – will determine whether the aging bull market can flex new muscles.
Saudi’s IPO gusher will lay dormant 28 Dec 2016 A $2 trillion flotation of oil producer Aramco, once planned for 2018, is likely to slip further down Riyadh's agenda. Politics makes the IPO complicated, and recovering oil prices make it unnecessary. While Saudi's bankers may wish it otherwise, postponing is the logical choice.
Europe’s best antidote to populism is unpopularism 28 Dec 2016 Parties that promised to take on the elite had a roaring 2016. Even so, the withering of the moderate centre isn’t inevitable. In Greece the pendulum is swinging away from radical government. Liberals with sound economic policies can win – if they’re willing to make enemies.
Macri sacrifice of finance chief buys limited time 27 Dec 2016 The Argentine president has scapegoated Alfonso Prat-Gay for the economy's failure to take off. His exit won't reduce 40 pct inflation and a bloated deficit. Macri's policies are sensible but not popular. The margin for error before October's midterm elections just narrowed.
Harry Potter can add magic to predictive power 23 Dec 2016 As J.K. Rowling's boy wizard turns 20, it's a good time to recall how many agents and publishers rejected him. Similarly closed minds help explain why recent political upheavals have surprised many and economic forecasts are often wrong. A little more imagination goes a long way.
Russian sanctions will shrivel to soccer boycotts 23 Dec 2016 Pro-Kremlin leaders in Europe and the U.S. plus a rising oil price will embolden Vladimir Putin in 2017. That could lead to a rethink on sanctions and a soft response to Baltic sabre-rattling. Western protests will be limited to threatening boycotts of the 2018 World Cup.
Race to build will add impetus to old-world stocks 23 Dec 2016 Infrastructure is one of the few areas where Donald Trump, Angela Merkel and Theresa May will agree in 2017. Not all the numbers bandied about are as big as they sound. But it should create jobs in developed economies – and gee up long-underperforming infrastructure stocks.