Russia lacks cash and motive to rebuild Syria 16 Dec 2016 After the last Iraq war, U.S. reconstruction cash poured in. Were Aleppo's collapse to prompt the end of the war in Syria, Moscow's economic fragility would make it unlikely to follow suit. An EU populist backlash against a fresh influx of fleeing Syrians helps Russia anyway.
U.S. Fed catches Chinese bonds off-guard 16 Dec 2016 Yields are soaring on the prospect of a rapid rise in U.S. interest rates. Beijing needs to defend the currency, and prevent new bubbles, so its options are limited. Authorities have to restore calm while avoiding the ham-fisted tactics that failed during the stock market crash.
Casinos offer post-Olympics pickup for Japan 16 Dec 2016 Japan has legalised casinos after many years of wrangling. The market could in time be worth more than $30 billion a year. The resulting construction boom and boost to tourism will help extend Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic programme past the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
Cox: Taiwan deserves better than Trump’s drive-by 15 Dec 2016 In the days since the U.S. president-elect trashed protocol and spoke to President Tsai, it has become apparent that Asia's shining example of vibrant democracy got taken for a ride. A flicker of pride can't offset being played as a pawn in Trump's antagonistic approach to China.
Fed rate hike foretells end of credit-market boom 15 Dec 2016 U.S. corporations have gone on a borrowing binge in recent years to fund stock buybacks and juice reported earnings. The central bank's long-awaited move, and the prospect of more to come, alters the calculus. Real growth rather than financial engineering will be the new game.
Brexit could give Madrid its day in the sun 15 Dec 2016 Unlike Paris or Frankfurt, the city is not a top contender to attract financiers dislocated by Brexit. But Spain’s capital has attractions, like low costs and a friendly tax regime, that could draw in other sectors. Vitamin-D starved corporate refugees may take the bait.
Bank of Korea stuck between Park and a hard place 15 Dec 2016 The day after the Fed raised rates, the South Korean central bank kept them unchanged for a sixth straight month. The won can take a hit, but the country's sagging economy could use some stimulating. That's especially true as a president-less government creates added uncertainty.
New president may force hawkishness on 2017 Fed 14 Dec 2016 The central bank nudged interest rates up again after a year's pause. Janet Yellen and colleagues previously sounded cautious but that was before the Trump bump. If bond yields, inflation and stock prices continue to rise, the Fed will be under pressure to make quicker increases.
Brazil’s Temer puts country on knife’s edge 14 Dec 2016 The unpopular leader has won a key victory, securing constitutional reform to cap public spending for the next 20 years. That's necessary but insufficient if he is to fix Latin America's largest economy. Pension reform will be harder, though, and a corruption probe spells danger.
EU bank forbearance trade may get another boost 14 Dec 2016 Europe's lenders may need 276 bln euros of new debt to shield taxpayers from bailouts, says a regional watchdog. The market might struggle to absorb the volume. However, most banks are yet to face hard deadlines. It’s another area where regulators might help out investors.
Small step for some is giant leap for Uzbekistan 14 Dec 2016 The landlocked central Asian country has poor human rights and low foreign investment. But new President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has made encouraging changes, like restoring air links with Tajikistan and scrapping visas for some foreigners. There is far to go, but it’s a start.
Tech needs to speak the president-elect’s code 13 Dec 2016 Most major Silicon Valley CEOs have heeded the call to Trump Tower. They may be expecting a browbeating, a deal for tax cuts – or both. Their real task, though, is to convince a hostile audience that they – and open societies – create wealth, jobs, security and power.
Even if Yellen remains, Trump can reshape Fed 13 Dec 2016 The governors of the U.S. central bank are gathering for the last markets meeting of this year. The chair plans to stay until 2018. But with two vacancies out of seven and the potential for more to quit, the next president has a chance to tip the political balance of the group.
Basel set to fill bank capital holes – with fudge 13 Dec 2016 Global standard setters could allow lenders to hold less capital against assets than previously flagged. It's a predictable compromise to help the worst affected European banks, while heeding U.S. calls for more uniformity. Banks will be pleased; hairshirt supervisors less so.
Brexit transition may ease not remove uncertainty 13 Dec 2016 UK Chancellor Philip Hammond sensibly wants banks to have continued access to Europe's single market after Britain's departure to protect financial stability. That would give them longer to make alternative plans - but also risks prolonging doubts about the final arrangements.
Radical Modi could leave a trail of destruction 13 Dec 2016 New Delhi is scrambling to show its banknote recall was worthwhile, after cash flooded back faster than expected. Premier Narendra Modi's pursuit of illicit wealth is well intentioned. But aggressive tactics endanger everything from central bank credibility to fiscal discipline.
Tillerson would take more bad than good to State 12 Dec 2016 The Exxon CEO's dealmaking means he's already a diplomat of sorts. So he would be fine with the basics of foreign affairs and Donald Trump's apparent "America-first" policy. But his ties to Vladimir Putin and his cronies would make him an inflammatory pick, even with Republicans.
Iran needs friends beyond Boeing 12 Dec 2016 The U.S. aircraft-maker's order for $16.6 bln of planes may force U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to choose between jobs and his tough stance on the Islamic Republic. Iran is in a weak position. It can help itself a bit, starting by rebuilding bridges with near neighbours.
Italy’s next PM is a Five Star gift for populists 12 Dec 2016 Paolo Gentiloni has to fix the banks, sort out voting rules and steer the country to elections. A replacement for Matteo Renzi is better than a vacuum. But given the new leader is from the same party, doing too good a job might just hand power to the populist 5-Star Movement.
Michael Jordan scores a nominal win in China court 9 Dec 2016 The U.S. basketball legend and brand powerhouse has won the rights to his Chinese name in the mainland's highest court. It's a welcome victory for trademark owners, but it won't put more money in His Airness's pockets, or do much to deter other Chinese brand thieves.