Politics redefines essence of developed markets 8 Nov 2016 Investors used to assume rich economies were more stable than poorer ones. The U.S. election and the Brexit vote have challenged that belief. Greater political volatility will lead to bigger gyrations in once-safe assets and reduce the number of true havens from market turmoil.
Fat donkey-tail risk lurks in U.S. elections 7 Nov 2016 Investors are pricing in Hillary Clinton as the next president and Republicans hanging onto control of at least one congressional chamber. A Donald Trump win would shock and scare Mr. Market. There's also a small chance of a Democratic sweep, a less-discussed bearish outcome.
Shared to-do list no matter who nabs White House 7 Nov 2016 U.S. political rancor reached a depressing height in the 2016 campaign. But there is some bipartisan harmony on the need for a corporate-tax overhaul, infrastructure spending boost and immigration reform. Amid a dispiriting race, there's a sliver of hope for actual governance.
Cox: Trump would – briefly – make America great 7 Nov 2016 U.S. stocks are bound to freak out, Brexit-style, if the reality-TV star wins the White House. Yet the instability also would send investors in search of less risky assets. Beyond cash, those are mostly dollar-denominated. Longer-term, though, a President Trump is another story.
A divided town in a divided Britain 7 Nov 2016 Life is getting better, by many measures, in Hull. Yet the northern British city voted overwhelmingly to leave Europe, and its citizens aren’t sorry they did. Brexit is often seen as a conflict between progress and disenfranchisement, but it isn’t. One town can have both.
U.S. employers deliver an early Christmas gift 4 Nov 2016 They added a modest 161,000 new jobs last month. Wage gains accelerated, however, bringing the annual increase to 2.8 pct, the biggest since 2009. That could help lift consumer spending, an important engine of economic growth, heading into the holiday shopping season.
Breakdown: Electionomics beyond Clinton vs. Trump 4 Nov 2016 The worlds of business and finance have other ballot-related cost-benefit analyses to consider. Hanging in the balance are the House speaker, the Senate banking chair and an important Wall Street ally. Important marijuana and Obamacare state votes also feature prominently.
UK bonds offer scant recompense for messy politics 4 Nov 2016 Investors are keeping faith with Theresa May's government. Though sovereign yields have climbed in the past month, the shift is largely down to rising inflation expectations and fading hopes for lower interest rates. The relaxed stance leaves few buffers against political shocks.
California voters guinea pigs in drug-price trial 3 Nov 2016 The electorate decides next week whether to cap the cost of prescription medicine. If approved, Proposition 61 may initially be hard to implement. But as with reducing car emissions and legalizing marijuana, a yes vote from the Golden State could prompt a nationwide debate.
Viewsroom: What to watch for beyond Clinton-Trump 3 Nov 2016 Americans aren't just voting for the 45th president. House and Senate elections affect everything from Wall Street to the Supreme Court. And marijuana and healthcare figure prominently in state ballots. Meanwhile, there's more brouhaha around Brexit. And GE is shaking itself up.
The Exchange: Anthony Scaramucci 3 Nov 2016 Support for Donald Trump is thin on Wall Street. One exception is SkyBridge fund chief Anthony Scaramucci, now an economic adviser to the Republican candidate. Scaramucci explains why he's with Trump, and how it has affected his profile among the financial community.
Guest view: Ending easy money may aid productivity 3 Nov 2016 Where there's unconventional monetary policy, growth in worker output has fallen to worrying levels. This seems to confirm some so-called Austrian economic theories, argues ex-banker Martin Hutchinson. Reversing the trend will be painful, but could get rich nations back on track.
Russia austerity budget is no antidote to low oil 2 Nov 2016 Moscow wants to freeze spending to cut the country’s deficit amidst a low oil price. Yet the three-year budget doesn’t tackle Russia’s dismal growth, or wasteful spending on damaging conflicts. And President Vladimir Putin may not stick to the cautious plan.
Scandal in Seoul masks bigger economic problems 3 Nov 2016 A furore over a quirky confidante is buffeting South Korean President Park Geun-hye. The regularity of such crises attests to poor governance. But that's only part of a larger challenge: avoiding Japan-style stagnation despite heavy debts, weak exports and an ageing population.
U.S. Election Day is the new Friday-night dump 2 Nov 2016 Controversial companies such as Valeant, Viacom, SeaWorld and Mylan are releasing earnings on Nov. 8 - the day of the presidential poll - or Nov. 9. Good or bad news may sink with minimal media or investor attention as American eyes focus on the next occupant of the White House.
KFC discovers weak appetite for Chinese consumers 2 Nov 2016 Yum Brands' spun-off local unit is a straightforward play on rising mainland consumption, offering Chinese growth with U.S. governance. A surprisingly modest valuation for the KFC operator suggests punishment for past mistakes - and caution about China's economic transformation.
Samsung’s biotech IPO is an $8 bln medical mystery 2 Nov 2016 The giant conglomerate's BioLogics unit is valuing itself generously. Demand for biological drugs is soaring, but the group's untested technology and model – touted as analogous to the contract manufacture of semiconductors – mean investors have to take its prospects on trust.
Obamacare could use a transplant, not euthanasia 1 Nov 2016 Donald Trump and fellow Republicans are using rising premiums and departing insurers to renew calls to bury the U.S. president's signature healthcare program. But they lack a viable alternative, meaning millions would lose coverage. Bipartisan surgery is a smarter option.
Global economic prospects look worse for women 1 Nov 2016 Even in highly equal Norway, new data shows women are barely present in some industries. These are exactly the sort of sectors that will benefit from a revival of government-backed spending programmes. Well-intentioned economic policies risk spreading their fruits unevenly.
Bridgewater DNA stains FBI election surprise 1 Nov 2016 Director James Comey is under fire for disclosing a renewed probe into Hillary Clinton's emails days before the U.S. vote. He learned about "radical transparency" at Ray Dalio's $150 bln hedge-fund firm. The dogma of openness has its limits in both companies and government.