OPEC

Ecuador exit an irksome speck in OPEC’s eye

2 October 2019

Saudi Arabia may shrug off the latest departure from the oil-producing group over which it presides. Ecuador has other priorities that make it expedient to detach. But the net effect is bad for OPEC, because it’s a reminder that the value of membership is dwindling.

OPEC extends its awkward holding pattern

1 July 2019

The oil-producing group and allies like Russia can probably gee up prices a little by prolonging output cuts brought in last year. Gulf tensions should offset a demand-led hit to prices. But they will also make big contracts like Exxon’s $53 bln one in Iraq harder to close.

Saudi Arabia will feel Trump’s Iran slap too

22 April 2019

The U.S. president will fully enforce sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. Riyadh must pump more to prevent crude prices spiking further, which it has the scope to do. But doing Trump’s bidding will rankle OPEC peers. And the administration has a track record of changing its mind.

OPEC condition upgraded from terminal to ailing

7 December 2018

The oil producers’ club agreed a 1.2 million bpd cut with allies like Russia, hiking prices. After Qatar’s exit, failure to do so would have destroyed the cartel’s credibility. But the details imply OPEC leader Saudi’s wishes are subordinate to those of Russia and the U.S.

Qatar’s OPEC exit is a deft way to irritate Saudi

3 December 2018

Leaving the producer group is justified given big output calls are now taken by Riyadh and non-member Russia. Still, spurning a seat at the table is significant. It’s a way for Doha to flaunt gas riches, while implying a Saudi-led OPEC is increasingly chaotic and less relevant.

Saudi Arabia finds OPEC solution that helps itself

22 June 2018

At the oil producer group’s Vienna meeting Riyadh needed to hike output without sparking an Iranian walkout. It succeeded, and in a way that could gee Saudi oil revenue. The catch is that President Donald Trump may soon twig that the deal may not help to curb high oil prices.

OPEC supply easing is more reset than U-turn

25 May 2018

Saudi Arabia and Russia may lift oil output by 1 million barrels per day. Though that could knock prices, production of the black stuff will be more in line with the cartel’s previously agreed curbs. It’s a more far-sighted plan than allowing the value of crude to keep rising.

OPEC high point is an Indian summer

16 May 2018

The cartel’s biggest member, Saudi Arabia, wants oil to reach $100 per barrel. West Texas bottlenecks offer hope prices could get close. But cyclical forces are at work. Fresh pipeline capacity will unleash a tidal wave of supply. With prices high, demand will fall, too.

Chesapeake solidifies shale role as OPEC sandfly

22 February 2018

The shale producer pumped more crude at lower costs in the last quarter – then sold it for more money. It can partly thank oil cartel OPEC, which has helped prices edge up. The Oklahoma-based driller joins a growing list of little wildcatters that are becoming a big annoyance.

OPEC’s widened tent would still be built on sand

16 February 2018

Oil-exporting countries are working to expand their alliance with Russia and others longer term, the UAE oil minister says. That’s just as production numbers show U.S. drillers are set to pump more oil this year. OPEC’s tent can widen, but it will still face a production gale.

Big Oil’s discipline reinforces shale’s swing role

22 December 2017

OPEC’s restraint has put a floor under the price of crude, but big oil companies will put a lid on it in 2018. Majors worried about oversupply will tighten budgets and focus on areas with quick payback. U.S. shale will be the big beneficiary, reinforcing its global influence.

Saudi needs OPEC cuts to work, but not too well

30 November 2017

The oil cartel agreed to extend cuts until the end of 2018. Its moderation has drained inventories and lifted prices. Further cuts won’t boost prices enough to balance Saudi’s budget. Then again, that gives the crown prince a reason to continue with his challenging reforms.

Only Russia can make OPEC great again

23 May 2017

Moscow is giving the cartel more pricing clout. A mooted deal to extend output cuts and drain global crude stockpiles can only succeed with the continued support of the world’s biggest crude producer. With U.S. drillers recovering, it may be time to make the alliance permanent.

OPEC caught in vicious Permian cycle

19 May 2017

As President Trump heads to Saudi Arabia, the oil cartel looks set to extend production cuts. It may buoy prices and keep drills running. But efficient U.S. wells in the Permian and elsewhere will benefit most, limiting increases. It’ll be hard for OPEC to regain the upper hand.

OPEC’s oil price conundrum requires new bargain

9 May 2017

The cartel’s decision to restrict output has failed to revive prices. Extending the current deal – as Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has hinted – is not guaranteed to drain stockpiles. Making deeper cuts at the expense of market share would do the trick, but could be hard to agree.

Saudi Arabia’s flawed oil plan still the right one

15 March 2017

Cuts to production agreed with OPEC aren’t boosting the value of crude as hoped, or reducing global stockpiles. Shale in the U.S. is recovering too, and prices are moving sideways. The holding pattern is painful, but it’s still better than reversing course and letting oil plunge.

OPEC’s solidarity points to longer production cuts

14 February 2017

The cartel has taken two steps forward and one step back. Compliance with output cuts is narrowing the gap between supply and demand, but it is also encouraging U.S. producers to drill more wells. Sustained higher prices may require even more restraint to keep the market balanced.

Bets against Iraq’s OPEC cuts are premature

10 January 2017

Traders may have jumped the gun betting Baghdad won’t stick to an output deal. The cartel's second-largest producer has little to gain reneging on the pact and could struggle to maintain record shipments without investment. Higher prices help its cause more than extra barrels.

Maduro will survive, just, on Venezuelan tightrope

28 December 2016

The economy is a wreck, but the country's inept leader has probably done enough to avoid being forced from office in 2017, unless by fellow Chavistas. A bond swap and army-led food programs helped. His gutting of institutions, though, risks violence that may yet be his undoing.

OPEC resolve is strong enough to turbo-charge oil

30 November 2016

The cartel’s deal to cut crude output for the first time since 2008 ends its two-year-old policy of putting market share before higher prices. This may be self-defeating if shale production rebounds. But OPEC unity is convincing enough for oil to extend and sustain gains.