Corona Capital: Oil cheerleading, Mortgaging Ford 13 Apr 2020 Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: U.S. and Saudi energy ministers agree on pumping up oil, Ford may use an old trick to raise new capital.
Big Oil’s wipeout invites a new sort of activist 9 Mar 2020 Plunging crude prices have sent BP shares down 20%, with Shell and Total close behind. The rout could make it harder for oil majors to shift away from fossil fuels. Dirt-cheap valuations offer a way for activists to push CEOs to cut investment and return cash to shareholders.
Saudi sets global oil a stress test few will pass 9 Mar 2020 An all-out price war launched by the kingdom crashed the crude price over 20%. Values well below $40 a barrel are a setback for U.S. shale producers, global oil majors, national budgets, and the climate change fight. At least Saudi oil giant Aramco will share the short-term pain.
OPEC Russian roulette yields circular firing squad 6 Mar 2020 Moscow has rejected the cartel’s pleas for a supply cut to ease a virus-linked demand slump. Given the scale of the oil market imbalance, an inadequate deal was the best that could have been hoped for. But OPEC’s efforts to force the issue look like leaving everyone worse off.
OPEC readies knife for oil demand-slump gunfight 3 Mar 2020 The cartel and its Russian allies are set to curb crude supply again, to counter a virus-induced price fall. But even a 1 mln barrels per day cut may not do the job. To hike prices, OPEC needs Russia to prove helpful, Libya to stay troubled, and the coronavirus to not get worse.
Ecuador exit an irksome speck in OPEC’s eye 2 Oct 2019 Saudi Arabia may shrug off the latest departure from the oil-producing group over which it presides. Ecuador has other priorities that make it expedient to detach. But the net effect is bad for OPEC, because it’s a reminder that the value of membership is dwindling.
OPEC extends its awkward holding pattern 1 Jul 2019 The oil-producing group and allies like Russia can probably gee up prices a little by prolonging output cuts brought in last year. Gulf tensions should offset a demand-led hit to prices. But they will also make big contracts like Exxon’s $53 bln one in Iraq harder to close.
Saudi Arabia will feel Trump’s Iran slap too 22 Apr 2019 The U.S. president will fully enforce sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. Riyadh must pump more to prevent crude prices spiking further, which it has the scope to do. But doing Trump’s bidding will rankle OPEC peers. And the administration has a track record of changing its mind.
OPEC condition upgraded from terminal to ailing 7 Dec 2018 The oil producers’ club agreed a 1.2 million bpd cut with allies like Russia, hiking prices. After Qatar’s exit, failure to do so would have destroyed the cartel’s credibility. But the details imply OPEC leader Saudi’s wishes are subordinate to those of Russia and the U.S.
Qatar’s OPEC exit is a deft way to irritate Saudi 3 Dec 2018 Leaving the producer group is justified given big output calls are now taken by Riyadh and non-member Russia. Still, spurning a seat at the table is significant. It’s a way for Doha to flaunt gas riches, while implying a Saudi-led OPEC is increasingly chaotic and less relevant.
Saudi Arabia finds OPEC solution that helps itself 22 Jun 2018 At the oil producer group’s Vienna meeting Riyadh needed to hike output without sparking an Iranian walkout. It succeeded, and in a way that could gee Saudi oil revenue. The catch is that President Donald Trump may soon twig that the deal may not help to curb high oil prices.
OPEC supply easing is more reset than U-turn 25 May 2018 Saudi Arabia and Russia may lift oil output by 1 million barrels per day. Though that could knock prices, production of the black stuff will be more in line with the cartel’s previously agreed curbs. It’s a more far-sighted plan than allowing the value of crude to keep rising.
OPEC high point is an Indian summer 16 May 2018 The cartel’s biggest member, Saudi Arabia, wants oil to reach $100 per barrel. West Texas bottlenecks offer hope prices could get close. But cyclical forces are at work. Fresh pipeline capacity will unleash a tidal wave of supply. With prices high, demand will fall, too.
Chesapeake solidifies shale role as OPEC sandfly 22 Feb 2018 The shale producer pumped more crude at lower costs in the last quarter – then sold it for more money. It can partly thank oil cartel OPEC, which has helped prices edge up. The Oklahoma-based driller joins a growing list of little wildcatters that are becoming a big annoyance.
OPEC’s widened tent would still be built on sand 16 Feb 2018 Oil-exporting countries are working to expand their alliance with Russia and others longer term, the UAE oil minister says. That’s just as production numbers show U.S. drillers are set to pump more oil this year. OPEC’s tent can widen, but it will still face a production gale.
Big Oil’s discipline reinforces shale’s swing role 22 Dec 2017 OPEC’s restraint has put a floor under the price of crude, but big oil companies will put a lid on it in 2018. Majors worried about oversupply will tighten budgets and focus on areas with quick payback. U.S. shale will be the big beneficiary, reinforcing its global influence.
Saudi needs OPEC cuts to work, but not too well 30 Nov 2017 The oil cartel agreed to extend cuts until the end of 2018. Its moderation has drained inventories and lifted prices. Further cuts won’t boost prices enough to balance Saudi’s budget. Then again, that gives the crown prince a reason to continue with his challenging reforms.
Only Russia can make OPEC great again 23 May 2017 Moscow is giving the cartel more pricing clout. A mooted deal to extend output cuts and drain global crude stockpiles can only succeed with the continued support of the world’s biggest crude producer. With U.S. drillers recovering, it may be time to make the alliance permanent.
OPEC caught in vicious Permian cycle 19 May 2017 As President Trump heads to Saudi Arabia, the oil cartel looks set to extend production cuts. It may buoy prices and keep drills running. But efficient U.S. wells in the Permian and elsewhere will benefit most, limiting increases. It’ll be hard for OPEC to regain the upper hand.
OPEC’s oil price conundrum requires new bargain 9 May 2017 The cartel’s decision to restrict output has failed to revive prices. Extending the current deal – as Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has hinted – is not guaranteed to drain stockpiles. Making deeper cuts at the expense of market share would do the trick, but could be hard to agree.