UK plays weak hand badly in Brexit poker 29 Nov 2017 The country has reportedly bowed to EU demands that it pay up to 100 bln euros when it leaves the bloc. Months of haggling have wasted time and goodwill even before the start of talks on trading arrangements. The outcome shows the UK has a lot less leverage than it pretends.
Trump gives Xi first taste of trade acrimony ahead 29 Nov 2017 The afterglow of the U.S. president’s trip to China faded fast. Unimpressed by Beijing's progress on North Korea and market opening, he is taking an aggressive stance on aluminium dumping. This sets the stage for uglier, more economically significant fights on trade.
Fed chair pick shows mastery of central-bank arts 28 Nov 2017 Jerome Powell breezed through his Senate confirmation hearing with Zen-like confidence. He dodged the tax-reform debate, kept rate-hike comments predictable, backed Fed independence and defended its bank-rules review. The prospect of post-Yellen stability will please markets.
Slim chance of Kochs taking over Meredith media 28 Nov 2017 The campaigning U.S. billionaires are investing $650 mln in Meredith so the publisher can buy Time Inc. The Kochs get prefs with an 8.5 pct dividend but no board seats. Like Carlos Slim’s loan to the New York Times, the likely returns look more financial than political.
Britain’s Brexit-ready banks a boon for government 28 Nov 2017 The country’s lenders are robust enough to handle even a messy exit from the EU, according to the Bank of England’s latest stress tests. The clean bill of health will help state-owned RBS restart dividend payments, making it easier for the UK to sell down its 71 percent stake.
Microchip boom short-circuits Singapore’s growth 28 Nov 2017 Revised GDP revealed a surprisingly strong 5.2 pct quarterly lift for the city-state's $300 bln economy. As in other parts of the world, however, the expansion has yet to power wages or jobs. Cyclical semiconductor output flatters the figures and warrants investor caution.
CFPB leadership row won’t stop inevitable gutting 27 Nov 2017 It’s unclear who’s in charge at the U.S. consumer protection agency. The departing Obama-appointed director named his interim successor, as did the White House, provoking a legal fight. But Trump can name a permanent head, and make good on his promise to eviscerate the watchdog.
UK’s post-Brexit industrial plan lacks ambition 27 Nov 2017 The government has promised to boost research spending, improve education and upgrade infrastructure. Leaving the EU makes this more important, but less affordable. Even if Britain was not breaking from its largest partner, however, the goals would be strangely short of oomph.
Telecom Italia grid spinoff is no easy quick-fix 24 Nov 2017 The telecom group is reportedly exploring selling a stake in its network. A spinoff might boost TI’s valuation, and ease shareholder Vivendi’s feud with the Italian government. Yet fierce competition from rival Open Fiber would remain unsolved, and deter potential investors.
Review: Macron is a riddle wrapped in transparency 24 Nov 2017 A trio of books help explain how a political neophyte became the French president. One is a decent account of the election campaign, another delves deeper into his youth and family life. But even Emmanuel Macron’s own tome is short of detail on how he formulated his beliefs.
China’s bond squeeze could spread offshore 24 Nov 2017 Beijing's hard line on risky lending is spilling into the sovereign bond market and knocking shares in financial companies. The stock volatility has limited international significance, but an onshore fixed-income panic could infect China's offshore dollar debt pile.
Hadas: Be thankful for good economic news 23 Nov 2017 The launch of bitcoin futures contracts grabs headlines, but has no weight on the scales of history. A half-century of sharp declines in global misery is another matter. This may be the greatest economic achievement ever. Be grateful - and angry at how much is still not done.
Britain’s RBS garage sale priced for messy Brexit 23 Nov 2017 Chancellor Philip Hammond intends to raise 15 bln pounds to meet fiscal targets by selling the state’s Royal Bank of Scotland shares. He could achieve that even if the shares tumble 30 pct, Breakingviews calculates. Given the wobbly economic outlook, some wiggle room makes sense.
India eyes governance brute force to check tycoons 23 Nov 2017 A proposal to follow the UK and require listed companies to have separate chairmen and CEOs is heavy-handed. It comes amid an effort in India to learn from past mistakes that have brought a mountain of bad debt, but an overly prescriptive approach risks unintended consequences.
Indonesia can close gap with tiger cub neighbours 23 Nov 2017 Stellar growth in Singapore, Vietnam and elsewhere means Indonesia is the laggard in a booming region. President Joko Widodo could do more to catch up, moving faster to upgrade infrastructure. Reassuring foreign firms by solving an ugly mining dispute would help too.
Sabotaging Obamacare backfires on Republicans 22 Nov 2017 President Trump claims his predecessor’s health-insurance program is dying. He and the GOP have eliminated some subsidies and slashed marketing. Yet the pace of enrollment has risen from last year. The political cost of efforts to kill the program is rising.
The Exchange: Jim Rogers 22 Nov 2017 The longtime Asia bull and Quantum Fund co-founder thinks the worst bear market of his lifetime is coming. He swung by our Hong Kong bureau to discuss the risks, as well as Trump’s Asia tour and why America could become its own worst enemy if it lets China dominate the region.
Hammond struggles in Brexit straitjacket 22 Nov 2017 The UK budget contained giveaways to homebuyers and the health service, funded by asset sales and accounting fiddles. But bleak growth forecasts limited Chancellor Philip Hammond’s generosity. Weak productivity growth will add to the economic pain of leaving the European Union.
Dutch Brexit red carpet hastens tax race to bottom 22 Nov 2017 The country’s new government plans to slash corporate taxes and cancel a levy on dividends paid overseas. One reason is to lure multinationals unsettled by Britain’s departure from the European Union. It’s an expensive gamble that makes it likelier other nations will follow suit.
Berlusconi’s court fight has become a sideshow 22 Nov 2017 The Italian ex-premier, excluded from office in 2013 after sex parties and the euro zone crisis, is challenging the ban in Europe’s human rights court. A verdict before a spring election is unlikely, but for better or worse Berlusconi doesn’t need one to be a political kingmaker.