Chinese buyout baron’s dissent challenges Beijing 29 Apr 2022 Shan Weijian, a frequent defender of Xi Jinping’s tough policies, broke ranks to warn of an economic crisis and discontent from lockdowns. It adds risk to the IPO of his firm, PAG, but making an example of him would be tricky. His sentiments are shared in the financial community.
Africa is imperfect solution to Europe’s gas woes 28 Apr 2022 The continent’s vast reserves and growing liquefied gas supplies can cut some of the bloc’s energy dependence on Russia. Yet lack of infrastructure, domestic needs and rigid contracts limit Africa’s ability to boost exports quickly. Political instability is a further headache.
Capital Calls: U.S. GDP fall masks solid economy 28 Apr 2022 Concise views on global finance: Consumer spending and business investment are resilient amid price hikes.
China takes new tack on emerging market debt 27 Apr 2022 Beijing has agreed to work with the Paris Club of official creditors to clear up Zambia’s $17.3 bln debt mess. That’s a major shift from the bilateral approach it usually adopts. An even bigger sign of progress would be accepting a haircut on the $5.8 bln that China is owed.
Putin’s gas shock is acid test of EU unity 27 Apr 2022 In severing Polish and Bulgarian supply, the Russian leader shattered a fragile equilibrium that had seen European energy buyers fund his war. He hopes other EU states will carry on, dividing the bloc. Instead, Europe should backstop the costly process of ditching Moscow’s fuel.
Asia wealth slump renders bank hype a little rich 26 Apr 2022 UBS’s pre-tax profit from private banking in the region slumped 38% in the first quarter. Lockdown pains should ease eventually, but China’s “common prosperity” agenda may undermine the highly touted opportunity. Hiring blitzes by Citi, HSBC and others could be hard to justify.
Elon Musk buys Tesla a pounding Chinese headache 26 Apr 2022 The world’s wealthiest man is buying Twitter for $44 bln in the name of free speech. Beijing will lean on him to un-ban its troll army, then push him to comply with its extra-territorial sedition law. The profitable carmaker’s key Shanghai outfit risks being a pawn in the fight.
Capital Calls: Britain’s beefed-up M&A watchdog 25 Apr 2022 Concise views on global finance: The activist building its stake in video-ratings firm Nielsen may face a potential snag, thanks to the UK’s answer to U.S. cross-border merger cop CFIUS.
Macron’s easy election victory masks big challenge 24 Apr 2022 The French president has won a second term. It will be harder than his first. His party may lose its majority in parliament within months. And he will struggle to implement a bold and costly agenda in a divided country. His room for policy manoeuvre looks limited.
Russia risk is ghost of banks’ sanctions future 22 Apr 2022 In the hunt for oligarchs and blacklisted firms, U.S. authorities are treating lenders as allies rather than adversaries. Prospective prosecutors may take a different view. Banks with past legal troubles might prefer to shun Russian business. Still, there are lots of grey areas.
Rwanda’s economic refit gets net-positive free ads 22 Apr 2022 Britain and Denmark want to outsource asylum processing to the East African nation infamous for its 1994 genocide. Regardless of their motives, it chimes with leader Paul Kagame’s plan to build an offshore services hub. Handling refugees looks mercenary but supports his goal.
Capital Calls: Gap falls through the inflation gap 22 Apr 2022 Concise views on global finance: Shares in the clothing retailer fell over 19% after the company warned of a sharper drop in sales and announced the departure of Nancy Green, the boss of its Old Navy unit.
Spendthrift Macron will hit harsh fiscal reality 21 Apr 2022 The French president must attract left-leaning voters to win a second term, and then a parliamentary majority. But financing pledges, like big investments in green energy, will mean choosing between higher taxes and worsening public debt levels. He’s likely to opt for the latter.
India’s Russian oil binge carries hidden costs 14 Apr 2022 New Delhi is filling its boots with Moscow’s cheap crude, just as Europe and traders like Vitol start to turn away. The aggressive ramp-up carries longer-term risks. As a keen buyer, India will find it hard to get waivers from sanctions if the West targets Russia’s energy trade.
Stranded jets are least of plane lessors’ problems 14 Apr 2022 Big fleet-owners like AerCap may have to write off $10 bln of planes trapped due to Russian sanctions. Ultimately, though, insurers should cover their losses. A bigger brake on the aircraft-leasing industry’s rapid ascent is the rising cost of debt from jittery lenders.
Covid shuts down China, Baltic lessons for Germany 14 Apr 2022 As Shanghai grapples with a coronavirus outbreak and almost one-third of the country’s population is under lockdown, Breakingviews columnists discuss the impact on China’s economy in this Viewsroom podcast. Plus, tiny Lithuania shows European countries how to give up Russian gas.
Macron-Le Pen replay reveals deeper French splits 10 Apr 2022 President Emmanuel Macron resisted a surge in support for his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the first round of elections. But the vote laid bare more divisions than existed five years ago. These rifts will make running the euro zone’s second biggest economy arduous.
Next Hong Kong chief gives China chance to reset 8 Apr 2022 Carrie Lam’s handling of protests and Covid-19 weakened the city’s stature and deepened economic imbalances. John Lee, the frontrunner to succeed her, looks thinly qualified to fix such issues. A more pragmatic approach from Beijing, though, might shore up investor confidence.
Culture wars: Musk’s Twitter punt, French election 7 Apr 2022 Outspoken political and business leaders are making big moves. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why Twitter may have reaped the benefits from Elon Musk’s investment and how French President Emmanuel Macron needs to work hard to win over voters.
Capital Calls: Citi hands SEC a SPAC victory 5 Apr 2022 Concise views on global finance: The top underwriter for blank-check firms is pressing pause on its business. It shows that proposed SEC rules have real teeth.