Ex-mortgage salesman tries rebirth as savvy buyer 26 May 2009 Stanford Kurland made a mint as the number two at lender Countrywide. Now he s looking for $750m to bankroll picking over the wreckage of the mortgage market. Sure, he should be equipped to find bargains for investors. But he and his colleagues will make the more certain return.
UK commercial property slump yet to hit bottom 21 May 2009 The battered realestate market has already fallen over 40% since its peak. But rents are still sliding, and problems refinancing £40bn of debt due this year could spark forced sales. Peaktotrough values could be more than 50%.
Property woes test Goldman conflict management 15 May 2009 The investment bank is famous for neatly managing potential conflicts when it takes multiple roles in a situation. Asking investors to pump cash into its Whitehall real estate fund while collecting fees on the bailout will be a big test of its skill at keeping the peace.
US housing still has a way to fall 28 Apr 2009 The rate of decline in US house prices moderated in February. Great news for housinghobbled banks, right? Maybe not. Better isn t the same as good . And the cities with the worst price declines are still leading the charge downward.
Spain’s banks wrestle with post-bubble housing 15 Apr 2009 Banks have been buying property from ailing developers, in the hope of later gains. The strategy worked in the last bust, but the wait this time could be painfully long. Discount lending might clear some housing stock. But there s only so much a bank can do in a falling market.
Canary Wharf debt buyback could buy Songbird time 6 Apr 2009 The UK property group is buying back some of its debt at a discount. The accounting treatment could help Songbird, its highly indebted majority owner, avoid a covenant breach. It sounds like a neat plan for everyone. But Canary Wharf s minority shareholders might think otherwise.
UK house-price slump has further to go 2 Apr 2009 By one measure, UK house prices could be near fair value. A survey showed them rising in March for the first time in 17 months. But housing slumps usually overshoot, and need consumer optimism to turn. There s not much of that around. There could be room for another 20% fall.
Faint US housing market dawn is a big global plus 25 Mar 2009 Upticks in home sales suggest the US housing market may be approaching bottom. Prices are close to their longterm average in terms of multiple of buyers earnings, and may decline only modestly further. That s good news for US banks asset portfolios and the global economy.
Rights issues: a new fee pool for commercial banks 19 Feb 2009 Conventional sources of underwriting investment banks and hedge funds are drying up. But in the UK, commercial banks are picking up the slack. It s a way of squeezing more out of existing lending relationships. The trend has further to run.
US mortgage plan is well-designed 18 Feb 2009 Obama s proposed plan to reduce foreclosures pulls off a neat trick. Subsidising servicers and lenders to reduce mortgage payments minimises moral hazard and is an efficient form of intervention. This may be the best spent of all the bailout monies.
Lenders should draw up naughty borrower lists now 17 Feb 2009 Trump's casino company just filed for bankruptcy for the third time. During the boom, banks overlooked big borrowers track records. They should make a list of who to shun and stick to it next time. It could also include Zell, Macklowe and a lot of US consumers.
US housing starts plunge has a silver lining 22 Jan 2009 New home construction dropped to a 50year low. That's not as bad as it sounds if it means housing inventory will be worked off, allowing prices to find a floor. Both processes may be nearing completion by yearend, which will stabilise mortgage values and end the banking crisis.
Mortgage market right to prefer cash to promises 8 Jan 2009 US mortgage bonds have rallied since the Fed said it would buy $500bn of them. That seems odd they re already allbutguaranteed by the government. But with the administration issuing mixed messages about its backing, investors are right to prefer cash on the barrelhead.
US shouldn’t bail out commercial property barons 22 Dec 2008 The Fed plans to finance the purchase of securities backed by credit card, auto, student and small business loans. That should help unfreeze retail credit. Now commercial property owners want in. But that won t unleash consumer spending which is the real key to a recovery.
Deutsche’s loan to Trump put hope over experience 1 Dec 2008 Deutsche Bank hoped the US property magnate s early1990s meltdown was a onetime affair. But, like its problems with Harry Macklowe another developer with a troubled borrowing past its decision to overlook The Donald s record and extend him credit is now causing grief.
London’s hedge fund alley won’t disappear 25 Nov 2008 Even if a third of the hedge funds clustered around Mayfair s Curzon Street went under, over 250 would remain. The financial sector s travails will push down rents, but the district should remain a destination for smaller, statusconscious financial firms.
CMBS woes show economy is growing threat 19 Nov 2008 Interbank lending is thawing, so lack of liquidity no longer appears to be a mortal threat to banks. But they re not out of the woods the commercial real estate mortgage meltdown shows how the US economic downturn is just beginning to take its toll.
US mortgage initiatives leave bad taste 11 Nov 2008 It s legitimate to modify home loans to avoid the cost, contagion and human fallout of foreclosures. And unlike bailing out Wall Street, it helps ordinary people and stabilizes the mortgages at the heart of the credit crunch. But prudent US taxpayers can still feel hard done by.
Europe’s largest mall opens in worst of times 30 Oct 2008 Any enemy of Westfield couldn t have hoped for better. The Australian developer is opening Europe s biggest shopping centre in London, just as the UK goes into recession. But the White City extravaganza won t go down without a fight. Competing retail hotspots will also suffer.
Candy brothers dodge first of many bullets 30 Oct 2008 The luxury apartment developers have moved to limit the damage from partnering with Icelandic banks on two schemes. Their Qatari backers on the huge Chelsea Barracks project in London are more secure. But the brothers still have to shift a lot of luxury flats in a bad market.