Europe will struggle to unite if Ukraine loses 11 Mar 2024 Jean Monnet, one of the European Union’s founders, predicted it ‘will be forged in crises’. Russian success in Ukraine could be the wake-up call the bloc needs to forge closer security ties. But it could also fragment under the strain. All the more reason to ramp up support now.
Kyiv’s defence requires European supply-side shock 5 Mar 2024 Europe is not producing the 2 mln artillery shells Ukraine needs, and missile plants are idle. Meanwhile, its stockpiles are shrinking, threatening the region’s ability to defend itself. To crank up production lines, manufacturers will need a steady flow of government orders.
How to solve Europe’s defence riddle 5 Mar 2024 At 360 bln euros, the bloc’s military expenses are three times Russia’s. Yet fragmented defence systems are a problem, Bruegel senior fellow Guntram Wolff tells The Exchange podcast. To improve scale and boost aid for Ukraine, Europe should consider more joint debt.
Europe defence push requires clearing M&A barriers 27 Feb 2024 The region is hiking military spending to aid Ukraine and become less dependent on the US. Yet governments are squandering investment on incompatible weapons and systems. Creating more regional champions, like aerospace giant Airbus and missile maker MBDA, is a top priority.
How a syndicated loan can funnel cash to Ukraine 26 Feb 2024 Western allies could extend credit backed by Kyiv’s claim for war damages against Russia, and then use $300 bln of frozen assets to pay off the loan if Moscow refuses to pay reparations. The widely recognised principle of ‘set-off’ can help overcome legal and practical hurdles.
Capital Calls: BAE Systems 21 Feb 2024 Concise views on global finance: The $46 bln British defence company is forecasting slower year-on-year earnings growth in 2024 despite reporting record orders.
Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost 16 Feb 2024 Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.
Renk’s IPO bang masks troubled world 7 Feb 2024 Shares in the German tank-gearbox maker soared 23% on the first day of trading. That and the Athens airport operator’s strong market debut suggest calmer IPO waters. Yet Renk’s success stems from heightened geopolitical tensions. That should keep investors on alert.
Spain’s Saudi telecoms shield is pricey and futile 20 Dec 2023 Madrid is buying 10% of Telefonica to protect it from the kingdom’s stake-building. But Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez already has tools to block the Gulf investor taking a board seat or a bigger share. Splurging taxpayer money unnecessarily looks risky for a new government.
Cisco’s $28 bln spelunking yields dicey deal 21 Sep 2023 Buying data and security outfit Splunk could increase recurring revenue at the $215 bln networking giant. Cisco is also paying a low multiple. But the two don’t have much overlap, and Splunk’s cloud-based business needs work. Cisco bears execution risk, which hinges on growth.
How Europe can square the circle on green economy 1 Aug 2023 Shifting away from fossil fuels is an opportunity for the bloc, argues economy tsar Paolo Gentiloni in this Exchange podcast. But it will have to overcome challenges, such as US competition for investment and the EU’s own narrow set of financial tools.
Glencore deal epitomises net zero’s reduced status 27 Jul 2023 The $75 bln miner used to argue it was better to wind down its coal assets than sell them to a less responsible owner. Now CEO Gary Nagle wants to buy a rival and spin off the enlarged coal unit. Investors, distracted by energy security and fat profits, are unlikely to stop him.
Capital Calls: Biotech alarm, Spotify’s tightrope 25 Jul 2023 Concise views on global finance: Pharma supplier Danaher’s reduced forecast contrasts biotech doldrums against broader market exuberance, in a warning sign for investors; the Swedish music streamer is caught between margin-hungry investors and music labels.
Recycling fail exacerbates EU’s metals conundrum 7 Jul 2023 The bloc is likely to miss a target to double its use of recycled material by 2030. That’s especially short-sighted given the growing threat of Chinese export restrictions on critical metals. Improving Europe’s ability to mine junk would help shield key EU industries.
Putin’s problems are only minor boost for Ukraine 29 Jun 2023 The Russian president restored a semblance of calm in Moscow after an aborted mutiny. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what this means for the country’s invasion of its neighbour. It’s helpful, but not necessarily transformative, for Kyiv’s resistance.
Markets are far from pricing in peace 26 Jun 2023 Germany’s Rheinmetall and other defence shares fell after an aborted Russian mutiny. Domestic instability may shorten the Ukraine war, curtailing lucrative contracts. Yet chaos in Moscow, Western tensions with China and rising cyberthreats will keep the world amply unsafe.
Europe has more Russian lessons to learn 26 Jun 2023 Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny rams home the EU’s need to protect itself from trouble abroad. Leaders meeting this week in Brussels are thinking in more geostrategic terms and may now agree a China policy. But until they act as a bloc they will lack clout, says Hugo Dixon.
EU phase-out of Huawei, ZTE is tricky but vital 20 Jun 2023 Commissioner Thierry Breton wants EU countries to end use of Chinese telecoms gear on national security grounds. Some states have already cut Huawei and ZTE from 5G networks. The EU survived decoupling from Russian energy, and it can manage this. But it requires German buy-in.
Dutch chip export saga exposes EU shortcomings 13 Jun 2023 The Netherlands is limiting exports of high-end semiconductor gear to China, after a US push to curb Beijing’s AI and military prowess. While the EU will soon unveil a plan, it looks hard to strike the right power balance in the defense arena. Brussels needs a clearer role.
Cyberattack risks rise up company agendas 18 Apr 2023 Digital breaches and data theft were up 40% in 2022. As firms expand their digital network, the weaknesses criminals exploit will also grow, DXC Technology’s security expert Mark Hughes told The Exchange podcast. Defending against attacks will inevitably cost more.