Texas downgrade worry is a good problem to have 12 Apr 2018 The Lone Star State’s comptroller reckons its increasingly underfunded pension obligations risk a credit markdown. Texas’ rainy-day fund helps give it more leeway than many states. Others face bigger problems because, as the U.S. economy has improved, their budgets haven’t.
Trillion-dollar U.S. deficits are funding headwind 10 Apr 2018 Recent tax cuts will push the annual federal budget shortfall into 13 figures and debt to nearly 100 pct of GDP by 2028, Congress’s number-crunchers reckon. The forecast, on the eve of a big auction of Treasury securities, gives investors one more reason to demand higher yields.
Trade and immigration loom over U.S. jobs outlook 6 Apr 2018 Payroll gains in March were disappointing, but the monthly average for the first quarter was a strong 202,000. Corporate tax cuts are supposed to boost economic growth from last year’s 2.3 pct. Saber-rattling on tariffs is a headwind, though – and fewer immigrants could be, too.
Chinese visitors can hit nerve tariffs don’t reach 5 Apr 2018 Levies on imports will slow the flow of TVs and medical devices into the United States. They could also thin the already-falling influx of tourists from China. America collects more from them than from all its exports of soybeans, and that number could pass $50 bln by 2022.
Rocket-fueled stocks finally feel the burn 28 Mar 2018 Amazon lost as much as $50 bln in value, perhaps partly because Donald Trump isn’t a fan. Tesla’s stock fell another 8 pct-plus. Facebook has shed nearly $100 bln of market cap. Investors once whistled past concerns that haven’t changed much. Maybe they are opening their ears.
Hadas: Taking on the Chinese new world order 21 Mar 2018 The People’s Republic lacks the political and cultural appeal to supplant the U.S. as all-round hegemon. Even so, it could soon set many global economic standards. The right response is cognitive empathy and careful choice of battles. Western countries too often choose wrong.
Europe’s data tax war is worthy but hard to win 20 Mar 2018 The EU may tax tech groups’ revenue. The bloc is right to argue that current rules overlook the value firms like Google extract from its citizens’ data. A crude levy on sales is far from perfect, but might add impetus to longer-term international reform efforts.
Volatility now has a life of its own 15 Mar 2018 Measures of how much asset prices are expected to gyrate have risen from ultralow levels. But investment strategies that worked a decade ago may not now. Volatility can now lead, not just follow asset prices and old market relationships may break down when turmoil hits.
Cox: Aramco and Amazon encourage bad behavior 15 Mar 2018 Global financial capitals are prostituting themselves to accommodate the Saudi oil giant's IPO. Amazon's competition for a second HQ is provoking U.S. municipalities to similarly ingratiate themselves. This "Aramazon" effect exemplifies how races to the bottom get started.
Guest view: The case for Trump’s de-globalization 12 Mar 2018 The U.S. president’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have precedents – Reagan and Bush No. 2 took similar actions. Critics worry that the globalization project of 1991-2016 is falling apart. Yet there could be benefits for the world economy and U.S. living standards.
Viewsroom: Trump slaps tariff fear on markets 8 Mar 2018 Imposing levies on steel and aluminum has lost the president his economic adviser, ex-Goldman No. 2 Gary Cohn. That has shocked investors out of complacency. Also: Italy’s elections leave fringe parties in charge. And big deals may be back on the agenda for the mining industry.
U.S. metal tariffs may not be biggest trade worry 8 Mar 2018 The president’s steel and aluminum levies have rattled markets and nudged his economic adviser to quit. A probe into Chinese intellectual-property policy could prove more devastating, though. It commands wide support and could inflict broad trade and investment disruption.
Trump tariffs risk more than just a new trade war 7 Mar 2018 Europe will retaliate if U.S. President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. A transatlantic trade fight is just one danger. By invoking a little-used national security loophole, Trump is setting a precedent of how to subvert international commerce rules.
Cohn exit makes White House chaos markets’ problem 6 Mar 2018 The ex-Goldman Sachs banker was a buffer against anti-trade voices in President Donald Trump’s administration. Now Gary Cohn is leaving, and Trump is ramping up protectionist talk. Markets have been phlegmatic about disorder in Washington. That can no longer be taken for granted.
Trade tensions curb spirits in U.S. energy sector 5 Mar 2018 OPEC is breaking bread with U.S. shale producers at an industry confab in Houston. It’s a sign of American wildcatters’ influence on the global market. But infrastructure bottlenecks and Trump’s new tariffs threaten to prevent drillers from taking full advantage of their clout.
China’s economic targets invite promise fatigue 5 Mar 2018 More money and more credit, less tax and red tape, plus the same old 6.5 pct growth target: Beijing’s key economic conference opened with cautious tweaks to last year's playbook. Chinese promises in Davos that reform will "exceed foreign expectations" look thin already.
Trump’s incoherent strategy dooms tariff crusade 2 Mar 2018 The U.S. president defended his steel and aluminum duties, arguing trade wars are “easy to win.” But his tax cuts increase the budget deficit and the country’s reliance on foreign capital, almost guaranteeing a worsening trade balance. The conflicting tactics are self-defeating.
Trump tariff chaos shoots America in its own foot 1 Mar 2018 The president is to impose sweeping import duties on steel and aluminum, citing national-security concerns – though details are scant. It’ll help domestic steelmakers. But the move ignored some U.S. agencies and could deliver a blow to vital allies like Canada and South Korea.
Georgia gives Amazon one great reason to stay away 27 Feb 2018 The Peach State's Lt. Governor hoisted a big red flag for the e-commerce giant. By lobbying to remove tax breaks for Delta Air Lines, a punishment for withdrawing discounts for NRA members, he makes Georgia an untrustworthy partner – and a poor choice for Amazon’s new HQ.
European tech tax grab risks U.S. backlash 27 Feb 2018 The EU may tax groups like Google 5 pct of sales based on where users are located. It’s an unsubtle solution to a real problem. But after recent U.S. reforms intended to keep profit at home, the two are reaching for the same slice of pie. The danger is a harmful tax tit-for-tat.