China thesis lurches from one lazy extreme to next 25 May 2023 Investors that piled into Chinese tech stocks and high-yield bonds are fleeing on worries about President Xi Jinping’s agenda, as the yuan slumps and commodities retreat. The People’s Republic is a tricky trade, but now is a better time to rebalance portfolios than abandon them.
EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel 23 May 2023 Fuelled by imports from Moscow, oil products sales to Europe from refiners including Reliance and Nayara have nearly doubled to $15 bln. The trend shows anti-Russian sanctions are not watertight. Yet, risks of an energy inflation revival make a European Union ban a tough call.
China’s Micron hit sets up repeat strikes 22 May 2023 The $72 bln US memory-chip maker says Chinese restrictions will probably reduce revenue less than 10%. Perhaps, but similar measures taken against database firms like Oracle and IBM a decade ago had a bigger long-term effect, helping domestic manufacturers to catch up.
G7 says “de-risking”, China hears “containment” 22 May 2023 Wealthy democracies argue they’re diversifying, not decoupling, from the world’s second-largest economy. Yet Beijing sees them hobbling strategic industries, undercutting its global leadership and boosting defence budgets. “Escalation” or “retaliation” are more accurate synonyms.
Russia sanctions become a high return investment 19 May 2023 As older penalties lose their bite, Western powers are preparing a new round of measures to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin. That will hurt the Kremlin and be a marginal sacrifice for Europe, which no longer depends on Moscow for its energy – a good cost-benefit balance.
Ukraine rebuilding would be small wager for Europe 16 May 2023 The Ukrainian economy shrank by 30% last year but the war didn’t break it. Reconstruction will cost $410 bln over a decade, according to the World Bank. The European Union could fund the bulk of those efforts by spending just 0.1% of annual GDP. That would be a shrewd investment.
Rich world has three ways to win over global South 15 May 2023 Leaders from the Group of Seven, who gather this week, need to develop a stronger pitch to poorer non-aligned nations. A strategy based on peace, prosperity and protecting the planet could work. It’s more effective than delivering lectures on democracy, says Hugo Dixon.
Capital Calls: Disney, Thyssenkrupp 24 Apr 2023 Concise views on global finance: The CEO of the $180 billion entertainment company has to thread the needle between layoffs and degrading value as he finds a successor; the 4 bln euro German steel-to-cars group’s shares tanked after CEO Martina Merz left.
How US and allies can find common ground on China 17 Apr 2023 Emmanuel Macron is not the only US partner wary of being drawn into a Taiwan crisis. But America and its allies will be stronger if they can agree more about dealing with the People’s Republic. Part of the answer is to focus on de-risking rather than decoupling, says Hugo Dixon.
China reluctantly keeps sanctions powder dry 12 Apr 2023 President Xi Jinping is swatting some firms like Micron but is deferring harsher retaliation against US export restrictions. If he scapegoats American capital, he risks pushing other countries into Washington’s camp. China’s soft economy means Xi can’t afford to lose his temper.
OPEC’s oil cut is less surprising than it looks 3 Apr 2023 The producer group’s shock call to slash output by another 1 mln daily barrels will annoy Joe Biden and spur inflation fears. But de facto leader Saudi Arabia had already shown it would ignore US wishes. And Chinese demand is sufficiently uncertain to justify pre-emptive action.
Israel hits tech sector cash cow while it’s down 3 Apr 2023 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has delayed a controversial plan giving the state power to override court decisions. Foreign investors in Israel’s key tech sector, which accounts for half its exports, were already getting stingier. They’ll get even more so if the idea returns.
China sanctions red line has shifted westward 21 Mar 2023 President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has rekindled concerns Beijing could get too cosy with Vladimir Putin. Arming Russia would likely trigger a joint Western diplomatic response even in the absence of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Beijing is walking a thinning tightrope.
Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit 20 Mar 2023 Moscow needs up to $90 bln to fund its budget deficit this year. As sanctions keep biting, financing the shortfall will slowly add to the economy’s woes. Russia’s need to use the yuan for trade and payments will also increase Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Beijing.
EU and US green arms race misses bigger picture 16 Mar 2023 The European Union’s response to Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act gives member states leeway to push back with their own green subsidies. Yet plans for production targets are misguided. To decarbonise while managing China risks, it’s better to seek common ground with the US.
Middle East pivot to Asia is strategic this time 14 Mar 2023 A restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi and Iran is a big win for its broker China. After prior false starts, the Middle East and Asia have a growing mutual interest in helping each other advance their energy and trade security. For bankers, financial deals will follow.
Capital Calls: Blacklisting China 3 Mar 2023 Concise views on global finance: Another 28 Chinese firms were blacklisted by the United States, making it harder for them to buy US goods. As security officials warn of TikTok’s massive reach, personal data should count as an American export, too.
UK’s Brexit fix has perks for all sides 2 Mar 2023 Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreed a trade deal with the European Union this week. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain what the accord will mean for future relations between Britain and the 27-nation bloc and how Northern Ireland may get an economic boost.
Why the dollar keeps winning in the global economy 28 Feb 2023 The greenback’s share of foreign exchange reserves is at 59%, a two-decade low. Challengers to its role as the world’s means of exchange abound. Yet the globalised financial system bolsters its lynchpin status. Absent major shifts in capital flows, the U.S. currency will thrive.
UK begins long and uncertain road back from Brexit 27 Feb 2023 Rishi Sunak agreed a deal over Northern Ireland trade with the European Union. If the UK leader can get it past his own party, it should improve relations and collaboration. Closer links will need bigger compromises than Sunak can stomach, but his deal is symbolically important.