Oil traders make risky bet on calm in Middle East 15 Apr 2024 Crude prices fell after Iran attacked Israel, probably because the Islamic Republic telegraphed its strikes in advance. Still, the unprecedented move may elicit an Israeli response. With oil supplies tightening, regional tensions and prices could yet reset at a higher level.
Middle East is complicating West’s grand strategy 15 Apr 2024 The U.S. and its allies wanted to focus on Russia and China. But the Gaza war - and now a conflict between Iran and Israel - is distracting them. It has also undermined support from poorer nations and boosted Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.
Ukraine loan is matter of politics and accounting 25 Mar 2024 Lending the country $300 bln backed by its claim for war damages against Russia has several benefits compared to rival ideas for unlocking support. Kyiv’s allies would still need to find the cash, though. Here is how they could navigate the political and financial obstacles.
Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin 18 Mar 2024 To keep pumping money into his Ukraine war, the newly re-elected president will have to squeeze Russians. Nobody can prevent him from further unpopular measures. A sharp drop in oil revenue might force him to change course, but that is hard and risky for the West to bring about.
Europe will struggle to unite if Ukraine loses 11 Mar 2024 Jean Monnet, one of the European Union’s founders, predicted it ‘will be forged in crises’. Russian success in Ukraine could be the wake-up call the bloc needs to forge closer security ties. But it could also fragment under the strain. All the more reason to ramp up support now.
Kyiv’s defence requires European supply-side shock 5 Mar 2024 Europe is not producing the 2 mln artillery shells Ukraine needs, and missile plants are idle. Meanwhile, its stockpiles are shrinking, threatening the region’s ability to defend itself. To crank up production lines, manufacturers will need a steady flow of government orders.
Europe defence push requires clearing M&A barriers 27 Feb 2024 The region is hiking military spending to aid Ukraine and become less dependent on the US. Yet governments are squandering investment on incompatible weapons and systems. Creating more regional champions, like aerospace giant Airbus and missile maker MBDA, is a top priority.
How a syndicated loan can funnel cash to Ukraine 26 Feb 2024 Western allies could extend credit backed by Kyiv’s claim for war damages against Russia, and then use $300 bln of frozen assets to pay off the loan if Moscow refuses to pay reparations. The widely recognised principle of ‘set-off’ can help overcome legal and practical hurdles.
Russia risk looms over Euroclear profit windfall 22 Feb 2024 The Brussels-based clearing house is a reluctant depository for sanctioned Russian assets. It made 5.7 bln euros before tax last year thanks to cash sitting on its balance sheet. But the bonanza also makes it a target. A blow to financial stability would far exceed one-off gains.
Europe risks falling into Levant’s powder keg 20 Feb 2024 War in Gaza is worsening already dire economic conditions in Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Western aid is unlikely to solve their deep problems. Despite efforts to outsource its migration issues, the European Union may find some displaced by a protracted conflict reach its borders.
Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost 16 Feb 2024 Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.
Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents 9 Feb 2024 Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.
Capital Calls: Maersk, SoftBank, Adyen 8 Feb 2024 Concise views on global finance: The Danish shipping giant’s shares fell 14% after it missed expectations and warned of years of earnings pain; the Japanese investment firm posted its first net profit in five quarters; the Dutch payment company is slowly recovering.
Renk’s IPO bang masks troubled world 7 Feb 2024 Shares in the German tank-gearbox maker soared 23% on the first day of trading. That and the Athens airport operator’s strong market debut suggest calmer IPO waters. Yet Renk’s success stems from heightened geopolitical tensions. That should keep investors on alert.
Red Sea delays are no panacea for European EVs 5 Feb 2024 Suez Canal blockages mean Chinese electric vehicles take longer to get to Europe. But these don’t look bad enough to close the price gap with EU rivals. The most likely upshot is a slower rate of domestic EV adoption, rather than a change in the competitive pecking order.
Budget deal leaves EU isolated in Ukraine aid push 2 Feb 2024 The EU avoided a crisis by salvaging its 50 bln euro funding plan for Kyiv after Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán fell in line. Europe is, however, isolated in its drive to support Ukraine, as long as a $61 bln similar aid package is stalled in the US Congress.
Shipping giants can withstand Red Sea crisis 30 Jan 2024 Houthi attacks near the Suez Canal are slowing global trade. In this Exchange podcast, Zvi Schreiber, CEO of shipping platform Freightos, discusses how the sector was caught by surprise, but excess container ships and more air cargo capacity are helping limit the immediate pain.
Red Sea oil tension may revive Russia-Saudi spat 22 Jan 2024 Exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis and the US military have hiked costs for Moscow to ship oil via the Suez Canal to China and India. One upshot could be Russia loses market share to Saudi Arabia. That may reopen the sort of tensions that led to the duo’s 2020 price war.
Global risk pile-up penetrates Davos bubble 18 Jan 2024 Nearly 3,000 movers and shakers have converged on the Swiss resort amid crises in the Red Sea, Gaza and Ukraine. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Davos-goers unable to ignore these perils are nervously anticipating another Trump presidency.
Reparation bonds could unlock $300 bln for Ukraine 15 Jan 2024 The US and EU are struggling to keep writing mega cheques to Kyiv and reluctant to hand over frozen Russian central bank assets. One alternative is for Ukraine to sell bonds backed by future claims for reparations. It could then use the cash to defend itself against Moscow.