Wall Street cues a lesson in Ivory Tower finance 20 Oct 2023 Billionaires Marc Rowan and Bill Ackman are angry about Middle East positions taken by their alma maters, UPenn and Harvard. The backlash inadvertently spotlights the power big donors wield on campus. It’s a chance to revisit the business model and make college a freer market.
Gaza turmoil’s repercussions extend far and wide 19 Oct 2023 Among other consequences, Israel’s new war complicates the path to friendlier relations between itself and Saudi Arabia. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the possible scenarios for the region, but also its implications for the US government.
Israel’s fossil fuel boon becomes less clear-cut 19 Oct 2023 The country’s rapidly rising gas exports were billed as a way to replace 10% of the Russian supplies lost by Europe. UAE oil giant ADNOC has also bid to buy local fossil fuel assets amid improving relations with the Gulf state. Israel’s war with Hamas complicates both objectives.
Saudi is wild card in Middle East’s new turmoil 18 Oct 2023 War in Israel complicates Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s modernisation push. He must consider the oil market, rivalry with Iran, overseas investment, and the views of 32 mln citizens. How the Gulf’s biggest economy proceeds has big implications for the region – and the world.
The financial ramifications of US-China tensions 17 Oct 2023 The rivalry between the world’s two largest powers is having an impact on almost every aspect of global business and finance. In this episode of The Exchange podcast, Jared Cohen from Goldman Sachs discusses how investors should approach geopolitics, and the limits of decoupling.
US grand strategy can prop up the global order 16 Oct 2023 The horror in Israel and Gaza is a new blow to a fragile world. But the United States can prevent the rules-based order from collapsing by continuing to steer a steady course with regards to Russia and China. The biggest risk would be the return of Donald Trump as president.
Israel’s robust economy faces a major stress test 10 Oct 2023 The Middle East state’s thriving tech sector and strong institutions have helped it weather past security crises. Its latest one is much bigger, though. One key indicator will be whether foreign capital can retain its recent enthusiasm for investing in the $500 bln economy.
Israel highlights fragility of new trade corridors 10 Oct 2023 The bloody conflict undermines Washington’s vision to use the country’s Haifa port to link India via Saudi Arabia to Europe. It also makes China’s pivot to the Middle East look less of a bright idea. The spoils are huge but reconfiguring trade and financial flows is hard work.
Israel war casts US as flawed-but-familiar haven 9 Oct 2023 Dysfunction in D.C. continues to freeze legislation, including new aid for Israel. Despite that, past conflicts – 9/11, Ukraine’s war with Russia – suggest the dollar will remain the safe haven. Investors’ reckoning with budgets, infighting, and an election will have to wait.
Israel flashes geopolitical warning at shaky time 9 Oct 2023 Bloody attacks in the Middle Eastern country raise the risk of contagion, possibly involving Iran. It’s a bad time for the region to join Ukraine as a conflict hotspot. And it’s yet another concern for a global economy grappling with inflation and rising borrowing costs.
African coups will ramp up scramble for minerals 31 Aug 2023 Gabon’s government was overthrown by a military revolt, following similar unrest in Niger. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how instability in producers of key resources like manganese and uranium will lead global powers to hunt for more stable sources.
African coups will exacerbate grab for resources 30 Aug 2023 Military revolts in Niger and Gabon are destabilising two resource-rich nations. That’s bad news while the continent struggles with rising interest rates, no market funding and poor governance. Uncertainty will intensify global powers’ rivalry for control of oil and minerals.
Shady export leaks suggest Russian sanctions work 29 Aug 2023 A suspicious bump in European exports to countries like Kazakhstan may be helping Moscow evade Western bans. The G7 price cap on Putin’s oil is also porous. But these cracks are marginal and help demonstrate the embargoes’ effectiveness – and why they can be tightened.
India is warming up to a cooling China 28 Aug 2023 Narendra Modi’s meeting with Xi Jinping in South Africa signals some thawing of financial ties hamstrung since 2020 by border tensions. Investments from the People’s Republic into its neighbour shrivelled thanks to a screening policy. That now looks ripe for fine-tuning.
Prigozhin exit leaves Putin’s weakness alive 24 Aug 2023 The apparent death of the former convict-turned-chief mercenary comes two months after his mutiny against the Kremlin. Prigozhin’s actions had raised doubts about the stability of the Putin regime and its capacity to get out of the Ukrainian morass. His exit leaves those intact.
Russia’s jumbo rate hike leaves Putin in hot water 15 Aug 2023 A plunge in the rouble and the Kremlin’s prodding forced the central bank to raise borrowing costs by 3.5 percentage points. The currency’s muted reaction leaves the president with more bad choices: restrict welfare spending or hope that even tighter policy can curb inflation.
Black Sea wheat war is sideshow for grain deal 9 Aug 2023 Russia is bombing Ukraine’s Danube ports while Kyiv hits its enemy’s ships in the Black Sea. Bumper harvests can cushion the shock on global wheat prices. But it would be in the two warring countries’ interest to strike a new food transport pact to allow their lucrative exports.
How Europe can square the circle on green economy 1 Aug 2023 Shifting away from fossil fuels is an opportunity for the bloc, argues economy tsar Paolo Gentiloni in this Exchange podcast. But it will have to overcome challenges, such as US competition for investment and the EU’s own narrow set of financial tools.
Glencore deal epitomises net zero’s reduced status 27 Jul 2023 The $75 bln miner used to argue it was better to wind down its coal assets than sell them to a less responsible owner. Now CEO Gary Nagle wants to buy a rival and spin off the enlarged coal unit. Investors, distracted by energy security and fat profits, are unlikely to stop him.
Egypt’s food tightrope has petrodollar safety net 24 Jul 2023 The collapse of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal is a big problem for the world’s top importer of wheat. Egypt’s battered economy will struggle as food prices spike. A $400 mln lifeline from the UAE, flush with oil cash, is one of leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s few crumbs of comfort.