European gas security rests on a fragile balance 14 Jul 2023 Mindful of last summer’s mad price rally, EU states have lots of the fossil fuel in storage. This, plus higher Chinese purchases, may keep European contracts below Asian ones. But that may prompt US cargoes of liquefied gas to head East, lifting European gas prices again.
Ukraine can rebuild without a Russian asset grab 30 Jun 2023 Using Moscow’s frozen assets to fund Kyiv’s $400 bln-plus recovery risks violating the rule of law. Suing Russian entities for the damages brought by the war is more promising. It allows Ukraine to build up claims that would be part of future peace talks.
Putin’s problems are only minor boost for Ukraine 29 Jun 2023 The Russian president restored a semblance of calm in Moscow after an aborted mutiny. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what this means for the country’s invasion of its neighbour. It’s helpful, but not necessarily transformative, for Kyiv’s resistance.
Markets are far from pricing in peace 26 Jun 2023 Germany’s Rheinmetall and other defence shares fell after an aborted Russian mutiny. Domestic instability may shorten the Ukraine war, curtailing lucrative contracts. Yet chaos in Moscow, Western tensions with China and rising cyberthreats will keep the world amply unsafe.
Europe has more Russian lessons to learn 26 Jun 2023 Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny rams home the EU’s need to protect itself from trouble abroad. Leaders meeting this week in Brussels are thinking in more geostrategic terms and may now agree a China policy. But until they act as a bloc they will lack clout, says Hugo Dixon.
Indonesia IPOs hitch a dicey electric-car ride 26 Jun 2023 New listings more than doubled to $3 bln this year, beating Hong Kong and London, as firms cash in on the nation’s growing status in electric-vehicle supply chains. But deals are marred by weak secondary market performance and political risks loom. The boom looks unsustainable.
Time for world to dust off its post-Putin plans 26 Jun 2023 The Russian president has been humiliated by his former protégé Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed coup. Whether he clings to power or is eventually shunted aside, he looks wounded. When weighing up the consequences, global powers should expect the worst but prepare for the best.
Ukraine’s push for speedy rebuild faces obstacles 23 Jun 2023 Kyiv is keen to put aid money to work on an early start of the reconstruction effort. Foreign donors and investors remain wary of the war dangers. A scheme to insure those risks could speed up things, but going too fast could also compromise Ukraine’s long-term recovery effort.
Rebuilding Ukraine: how much and who pays? 22 Jun 2023 Talk of reconstruction may seem premature with Russia still firing missiles at Kyiv. Yet that’s what policymakers and financiers gathered in London this week to debate. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the cost, the timetable, and who picks up the tab.
Donors can digest Ukraine dam attack damage 21 Jun 2023 The destruction of the Kakhovka dam is a big blow to Kyiv and adds billions of dollars to its recovery bill. Yet international donors meeting this week in London can absorb the long-term shock. Especially if they take the assault as a sign of Russia’s rising military desperation.
Kyiv courts risk with oligarch bank takeover plan 12 Jun 2023 Ukraine wants to nationalise Sense Bank, owned by sanctioned tycoons Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven. The political move lacks a strong economic logic. The state already owns four of the country’s top lenders. Finding a new private owner for the bank would be more sensible.
How US allies can mitigate Trump 2.0 29 May 2023 A return to the White House for the pro-Putin, protectionist and climate-sceptic former President would pose many challenges for other rich democracies. Their best insurance is to ramp up support for Ukraine, promote trade and speed up action on global warming, says Hugo Dixon.
EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel 23 May 2023 Fuelled by imports from Moscow, oil products sales to Europe from refiners including Reliance and Nayara have nearly doubled to $15 bln. The trend shows anti-Russian sanctions are not watertight. Yet, risks of an energy inflation revival make a European Union ban a tough call.
Ukraine rebuilding would be small wager for Europe 16 May 2023 The Ukrainian economy shrank by 30% last year but the war didn’t break it. Reconstruction will cost $410 bln over a decade, according to the World Bank. The European Union could fund the bulk of those efforts by spending just 0.1% of annual GDP. That would be a shrewd investment.
Ukraine banks’ robust health masks big challenges 11 May 2023 After previous central bank reforms and an influx of deposits, the Ukrainian financial sector remains strong. But bad loans are at 38% and the three largest banks are state-owned. To support Ukraine’s reconstruction they will need more balance sheet cleanups, and privatisations.
Rebuilding Ukraine depends on luring private money 10 May 2023 International agencies and allied governments are taking care of the war-torn country’s immediate needs. An estimated $400 bln reconstruction bill, however, requires additional investors. Economic incentives and new laws would help attract them even before Russia’s invasion ends.
Italy’s Leonardo risks missing defence bonanza 3 May 2023 The $7 bln Italian electronics and helicopter group, 30%-owned by the state, trades at a discount to peers. Leonardo is not fully capitalising on rising EU military budgets after the Ukraine war. Investor support to add external expertise to the board is sorely needed.
How US and allies can find common ground on China 17 Apr 2023 Emmanuel Macron is not the only US partner wary of being drawn into a Taiwan crisis. But America and its allies will be stronger if they can agree more about dealing with the People’s Republic. Part of the answer is to focus on de-risking rather than decoupling, says Hugo Dixon.
Sinking Russian military crafts new arms winners 12 Apr 2023 Moscow’s share of global arms exports shrank by 27% over the last five years, to the benefit of the US and France. Deprived of Western technology, Russia’s defence industry has struggled to adapt. Its traditional customers also aren’t impressed by its poor performance in Ukraine.
China sanctions red line has shifted westward 21 Mar 2023 President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has rekindled concerns Beijing could get too cosy with Vladimir Putin. Arming Russia would likely trigger a joint Western diplomatic response even in the absence of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Beijing is walking a thinning tightrope.