European banks have little to lose from rate cuts 25 Apr 2024 Tighter monetary policy boosted revenue at BNP Paribas, Deutsche and Barclays, who now face ECB and BoE loosening. Markets expect some 50 basis points of rate cuts, but that shouldn’t hurt bank income much. Deposits may get cheaper, while old loans keep rolling onto higher rates.
European airlines’ hot summer belies sector clouds 23 Apr 2024 Jet shortages mean that carriers may be able to charge higher fares this summer, ending years of overcapacity. For stronger players like $25 bln Ryanair, that could mean fatter margins. But it’s likely to be a short-term reprieve for a sector that’s grappling with other costs.
Germany engineers sharper China-EU autos debate 17 Apr 2024 Chancellor Olaf Scholz echoed Janet Yellen in using his visit to the People's Republic to warn against industrial overcapacity. But he also has reservations about Brussels’ potential EV protectionism. That suggests the bloc may yet take a more nuanced look at BYD and peers.
Berlusconis have narrow window for German TV bid 16 Apr 2024 The Italian clan’s broadcasting group MFE had banks lined up for a potential $4 bln offer for ProSiebenSat.1, Reuters reported. If they could replicate the savings from a past Spanish merger, the numbers work. The risk is the target’s shares keep rising, undermining the logic.
How Boeing’s woes change everything but planes 11 Apr 2024 Grave problems with the jetmaker’s 737 MAX have sparked a crisis. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain whether rival Airbus offers a template for policymakers, the impact of a US export champion floundering, and why others may struggle to capitalize.
Airbus obsessives have a shaky grasp of history 9 Apr 2024 The $140 bln pan-European group is flying high as rival Boeing stutters. Now carmakers and others are wondering if similar collaboration could help them face down overseas competitors. But Airbus’s idiosyncrasies and convoluted road to success make copycat plans pie-in-the-sky.
Germany sovereign pension fund is sound but small 3 Apr 2024 Berlin will borrow to invest up to 200 bln euros in global equities to help pay for the retirement of the country’s fast-ageing population. The vehicle’s modest size will limit its long-term impact, but Europe can learn from this blend of public and private schemes.
TSMC’s most complex engineering task is itself 3 Apr 2024 The $625 bln chipmaker has built a monopoly in advanced semiconductors by staying in Taiwan. Now it’s expanding abroad, spurred by subsidies and US-China tensions. Despite higher costs, it can generate decent returns. The bigger challenge will be keeping its technological edge.
Europe’s IPO window opens slowly for buyout barons 28 Mar 2024 CVC floated beauty retailer Douglas, whose shares fell, while EQT received a warmer welcome for skincare group Galderma. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how to interpret the mixed message for private equity groups sitting on $3 trln of unsold assets.
European private equity IPO door is only half open 22 Mar 2024 Buyout firms tested the market with cautious pricing for two beauty companies’ listings. Although Galderma performed, Douglas’s debt pile spooked investors. For sellers sitting on $3 trln of unsold assets the message is clear: discounts work, but only for healthy businesses.
Mexican wave of nearshoring firms is all at sea 19 Mar 2024 The country’s proximity to the US could make it a preferred destination as multinationals move away from Asia. Companies like Merck and Tesla are building factories there but, so far, manufacturing is not growing. With relocations costs soaring, an economic boom looks elusive.
RWE has a way out of its valuation hole 14 Mar 2024 The $26 bln German power utility has lost 22% of its market value this year. Low gas prices, higher rates and a lingering presence in polluting lignite are reasons why. The first two ought not to persist as headaches, and the last is something RWE could do more about.
Adidas catch-up remains off the necessary pace 13 Mar 2024 The $37 bln sneaker maker is emerging from its Yeezy trainer crisis. CEO Bjorn Gulden’s focus on fashionable trainers is helping to grow sales. But given the ropey economic outlook, which is hitting rival Nike, investors don’t yet look convinced he can deliver on his ambitions.
Bayer’s inertia will make mounting problems worse 5 Mar 2024 The $30 bln seeds and drugs maker has ruled out a rapid breakup. Bayer could have used a consumer health sale to cut debt and offset bigger US litigation costs. Betting instead that it can grow its way out of trouble risks exacerbating a yawning discount to the sum of its parts.
Cosmetics IPO application calls for a steady hand 4 Mar 2024 Buyout firm CVC is braving uncertain markets to list retailer Douglas, possibly for 7 bln euros. Shoppers’ appetite for premium makeup despite inflation is a positive sign. Yet the group’s high leverage and competition from Sephora call for a valuation discount to US rival Ulta.
European telcos’ new deal hopes face reality check 1 Mar 2024 Executives gathered in Barcelona this week to plead for lighter regulation, cheaper spectrum and some financial help. Policymakers are unlikely to agree. Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica and others will have to convince investors that future growth requires more investment today.
European bank property buffers rest on two big ifs 28 Feb 2024 Lenders like BNP and ING sit on $1.5 trln of commercial property loans, which look vulnerable to high interest rates. Longer leases give EU players more breathing space than US counterparts. Yet averting a crisis requires a mixture of falling inflation and a revival of offices.
Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost 16 Feb 2024 Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.
Renk’s IPO bang masks troubled world 7 Feb 2024 Shares in the German tank-gearbox maker soared 23% on the first day of trading. That and the Athens airport operator’s strong market debut suggest calmer IPO waters. Yet Renk’s success stems from heightened geopolitical tensions. That should keep investors on alert.
Deutsche Bank and BNP try on each other’s clothes 1 Feb 2024 The $27 bln lender is less highly valued than its $72 bln French peer and its recent past is more troubled. But Deutsche just upped its outlook, while BNP’s got worse. Neither are investor stars, but the German bank’s ambitions for its investment bank look easier to realise.