US economy is a victim of its own success 25 Apr 2024 The United States emerged as the world’s growth engine at the IMF summit last week. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate whether this debt-fuelled strength means that interest rates will stay high for longer and how that could raise the risk of a recession.
Macron wades into a very French debt crisis 24 Apr 2024 Some investors are avoiding the country’s bonds after its budget deficit topped 5% of GDP. Paris is unlikely to require an IMF or European bailout. But President Emmanuel Macron has to bring public finances under control. That will come at a heavy political and economic price.
World economy’s star athlete may run out of puff 23 Apr 2024 The IMF crowned the United States as the champion of global growth at last week's summit. A predicted rise in GDP of 2.7% this year is welcome as Europe and China struggle. But high debt and hard-to-repeat gains in productivity and the workforce will limit American staying power.
Stakes for India’s election outcome widen 22 Apr 2024 Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and rival Congress party promise to create jobs in their manifestos but differ somewhat on how to achieve the goal and on government spending. As India's bonds are added to global indices, a return to profligacy would be extra painful.
UAE is timely reminder of climate plan B urgency 18 Apr 2024 Torrential rains have flooded Dubai’s airport. Spending cash to prepare for the impact of global warming often takes a back seat to slashing emissions. The more richer states upgrade climate defences, the more they highlight the need to help poorer ones do so too.
Vietnam’s stability gets rude $24 bln shock 18 Apr 2024 At nearly 6% of GDP, a rescue of Saigon Commercial Bank is just shy of how much rich nations spent on bailouts during the financial crisis. The fallout will ripple through boardrooms around the world. The Asian country looks unstable as its importance in supply chains rises.
Why rich nations have to keep helping poorer ones 16 Apr 2024 The world faces many onerous financial and climate challenges. Still, as Axel van Trotsenburg, the World Bank’s Senior Managing Director, explains in this Exchange podcast, governments and companies in advanced economies cannot afford to stop supporting developing ones.
Look out for a return of the US bond rollercoaster 16 Apr 2024 As short-term interest rates spiked, longer-term borrowing costs have lagged. The yield on three-month US Treasury bonds has exceeded the return on 10-year securities for 76 weeks, a near record. If this anomaly unwinds, falling bond prices could hurt fund managers and Uncle Sam.
China is a tale of at least two economies 16 Apr 2024 GDP growth comfortably beat expectations, with robustness in manufacturing and green shoots in others like catering. Yet near-zero inflation and sluggish lending point to broader problems, while real estate’s woes endure. It complicates Beijing’s search for suitable stimulus.
Singapore’s new leader will have no honeymoon 16 Apr 2024 Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will hand over power next month in a well-planned move. His successor Lawrence Wong needs to shore up the ruling party’s votes ahead of elections, manage Singapore’s growing pains as a finance hub, and keep China happy. There won’t be any easy wins.
Oil traders make risky bet on calm in Middle East 15 Apr 2024 Crude prices fell after Iran attacked Israel, probably because the Islamic Republic telegraphed its strikes in advance. Still, the unprecedented move may elicit an Israeli response. With oil supplies tightening, regional tensions and prices could yet reset at a higher level.
An activist nudge is all it takes in Japan Inc 15 Apr 2024 Shares in the country's top property group, $31 bln Mitsui Fudosan, jumped 8% after it pledged to lift returns and halve strategic shareholdings. It partly answers Elliott's call for change, but peer pressure is at work, too. Pushy foreign investors can only claim some credit.
Middle East is complicating West’s grand strategy 15 Apr 2024 The U.S. and its allies wanted to focus on Russia and China. But the Gaza war - and now a conflict between Iran and Israel - is distracting them. It has also undermined support from poorer nations and boosted Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.
Bernanke partly mends cracks in BoE’s crystal ball 12 Apr 2024 The former Fed chair’s review of the Bank of England’s economic forecasts contains some sensible ideas. He correctly urges the central bank to stop relying on market predictions of future interest rates. But he could have pushed harder for UK policymakers to climb off the fence.
Hong Kong catches tantalising glimpse of future 12 Apr 2024 The city's airport had its busiest week since 2020 thanks to the Rugby Sevens and HSBC's inaugural investment summit. Yet many Hong Kongers spend their free time on the mainland. As the hub generates some of its old buzz, politics and pragmatism drive it closer to its neighbour.
European bond traders are chasing the wrong lead 11 Apr 2024 The European Central Bank flagged a rate cut in June, before the Federal Reserve. Yet yields on Germany’s two-year bonds are near the five-month high hit after Wednesday’s strong US inflation data. If the ECB is true to its word, obsessing about the United States won’t work.
India can grow fast with or without Narendra Modi 10 Apr 2024 The prime minister is hot favourite to secure a third term, and to lead the country into another decade of economic expansion. Yet projections of 6%-plus annual GDP growth are below the country’s own track record. And hitting the mark does not depend on one man.
China’s overcapacity is here to stay 9 Apr 2024 US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Beijing not to hobble Western firms by flooding markets with cheap exports. It’s a valid concern: banks are lending more to industry amid weak local demand. But China’s growth target means its factories have to keep churning out goods.
ECB’s rate cuts can help bond traders – and itself 8 Apr 2024 Holders of euro zone government debt have lost 14% in three years. Frankfurt policymakers can change that by cutting rates in June, before major peers. Lower borrowing costs would have another winner: the European Central Bank, which could save $7 bln a year in interest expenses.
Next Chinese trade war could benefit the planet 8 Apr 2024 As Beijing floods the world with cheap green goods, the West will put up trade barriers. That will delay the energy transition in the United States and EU. But the glut of EVs, solar panels and the like will speed it up in China and much of the Global South.