India bond market backstop is nice window-dressing 1 Mar 2023 The Adani mess may have jolted New Delhi to accelerate a $4 bln fund to help avert runs on corporate debt-holding mutual funds. The size could grow but it ignores the broader illiquidity problem. Fixing that means upgrading market infrastructure and letting more foreign money in.
Hong Kong’s office landlords face a tough rebound 1 Mar 2023 Global firms like Invesco are signing long leases but vacancy rates are at 12%, more than double Tokyo and Singapore. The Asian hub’s delayed reopening coincides with fresh supply hitting the market too. Hong Kong needs corporate tenants from mainland China to return fast.
Goldman doubles down on the wealthy, as it should 28 Feb 2023 The $120 bln bank is boosting its alternative-investment unit, which may soon be half the size of Blackstone. Add in banking and shareholders effectively get the rest for free. It highlights the upside for Goldman’s value, and makes CEO David Solomon’s consumer push look worse.
Stalled TV deal sharpens U.S. competition picture 28 Feb 2023 A hedge fund’s $9 bln plan to acquire broadcaster Tegna hit a likely fatal regulatory dead-end. The takeover doesn’t cross typical red lines, and the limbo threatens to jack up the price. It’s fresh evidence of the Biden administration pulling out all the trustbusting stops.
Overlong arms of law grip chipmakers and Disney 28 Feb 2023 Joe Biden is attaching childcare and profit-sharing strings to $39 bln of U.S. funding for semiconductor companies. Meanwhile, Florida’s governor has taken new power over Magic Kingdom theme parks. The mission creep in both cases sets unpleasant precedents for corporate America.
Court dunk changes game for digital collectibles 28 Feb 2023 U.S. regulators didn’t say whether non-fungible tokens are financial securities before the $40 bln market swelled. Now it’s up to the courts. A judge’s ruling against fantasy basketball card developer Dapper Labs raises big risks for NFT companies. But there’s still no referee.
Navigating the bumps in the energy transition road 28 Feb 2023 War and power crises raise questions about the smoothness of global decarbonisation. In this episode of the Exchange podcast, former Shell Chief Executive and current ABB Chair Peter Voser explains how global companies are adapting, and why European oil majors can still go green.
Santander’s new plan is a make-or-breakup moment 28 Feb 2023 Chair Ana Botín wants to forge deeper links between the disparate bits of her 60-bln-euro bank, including by using common IT systems. If it works, and higher returns follow, the bank should trade at more than the sum of its parts. If not, it will be hard to resist selling assets.
Why the dollar keeps winning in the global economy 28 Feb 2023 The greenback’s share of foreign exchange reserves is at 59%, a two-decade low. Challengers to its role as the world’s means of exchange abound. Yet the globalised financial system bolsters its lynchpin status. Absent major shifts in capital flows, the U.S. currency will thrive.
Capital Calls: Monte dei Paschi, Abrdn 28 Feb 2023 Concise views on global finance: Insurer AXA is selling shares in the Italian bank just four months after joining a risky capital increase; meanwhile, the UK asset management group run by Stephen Bird is still shrinking.
Airtel would be a complex saviour for Paytm 28 Feb 2023 Any investment from telecoms magnate Sunil Bharti Mittal would be a timely sign of confidence in the loss-making fintech darling as its big Chinese investors exit. Tycoons and banks are not happy bedfellows in India Inc, but deal talk at least shifts the debate to Paytm’s value.
Capital Calls: Buffett’s greatest hits lose verve 27 Feb 2023 Concise views on global finance: The ageing financial rockstar’s annual shareholder missive is stacked with some of his fans’ favorite themes, in the latest sign that he may have run out of new material.
UK begins long and uncertain road back from Brexit 27 Feb 2023 Rishi Sunak agreed a deal over Northern Ireland trade with the European Union. If the UK leader can get it past his own party, it should improve relations and collaboration. Closer links will need bigger compromises than Sunak can stomach, but his deal is symbolically important.
Cancer drug sale would be high hop on hope 27 Feb 2023 Pfizer is sizing up oncology specialist Seagen after talks with Merck stalled last year. While Big Pharma needs therapies to sell, the probable price of $40 bln or so is a big barrier. At that level a buyer would earn perhaps a 2% return on investment, even with hefty savings.
Africa debt stalemate will reverberate across West 27 Feb 2023 More than half the countries in sub-Saharan Africa may default on loans worth over $300 bln. Those which sought IMF relief are awaiting the resolution of a standoff between Western lenders and China. The crisis will leave debtors and creditors worse off and fuel migration.
A post-Erdogan Turkey could come in from the cold 27 Feb 2023 Investors shunned the country as the president let inflation rip. He strained relations with the West by cosying up to Putin and did too little on climate change. An opposition win in coming elections, more likely after the recent earthquake, may change all that, says Hugo Dixon.
Open-source software braces for trade war 27 Feb 2023 Sharing code that runs databases, phones and more benefits the world economy. But mutual walls are going up: ChatGPT is blocked in China while the White House has cut off Huawei from Android. Many Chinese and U.S. software projects are intertwined. They might also be doomed.
Politicians could do better with FTX donations 24 Feb 2023 Recipients of cash from Bernie Madoff and Allen Stanford had to hand it back. In Madoff’s case some $14 billion was recouped. The people overseeing the FTX bankruptcy vow to go after politicians. In a perfect world, lawmakers would voluntarily give money back.
Revisiting JPMorgan’s innovative Cazenove deal 24 Feb 2023 The American giant’s 2004 joint venture with the venerable UK stockbroker is often cited as a rare example of a successful investment banking takeover. A new memoir by former CEO Robert Pickering confirms Cazenove was right to sell. Less clear is whether JPMorgan needed to buy.
Spotify’s next act: hosting ad lollapalooza 24 Feb 2023 The music service attracted activist ValueAct as founder Daniel Ek starts to whack costs. Yet rather than cutting its way to profit, Spotify could stem its losses by nabbing a quarter of the streaming and podcasting ad pie. It’s a tough but plausible performance to pull off.
Capital Calls: Adobe’s lose-lose Figma bind 24 Feb 2023 Concise views on global finance: Shareholders in the $160 bln design technology firm seem to have decided that the only thing worse than doing its blockbuster deal for rival Figma is losing it.
IAG takeoff weighed down by debt dilemma 24 Feb 2023 With net debt above its market value, the $9 bln British Airways owner could use a rights issue. But it’s also back in the black after a painful pandemic, and deals may yield cost savings. Boss Luis Gallego has to work out which path is likely to annoy long-term investors least.
Alibaba shows limits of China’s reopening boon 24 Feb 2023 Boss Daniel Zhang's cost-cutting has paid off at the $250 bln e-commerce group but the outlook is meh. Consumers will spend offline as their confidence slowly rises. With Alibaba shares down 30% in one month, enthusiasm for China's return to normalcy has peaked worryingly early.
Beauty activism searches for Mr. Congeniality 23 Feb 2023 Bath & Body Works is a prime post-Covid activist target, as shares slump from a dizzying peak and demand slips. Little wonder Dan Loeb has shown up. But with his grievances focused on governance and big changes already made, this looks better solved without a knock-down fight.
Movie theater chain’s spotlight will stay dark 23 Feb 2023 A Pennsylvania pension fund is suing AMC over a decision to issue preferred stock without a vote. The CEO speaks of empowering investors, an irony given his decisions. And ultimately he is missing the point – AMC’s business is too far gone, and will likely need restructuring soon.
Scrap-car deal battle is a heaping mess 23 Feb 2023 Ritchie Bros’ $7 bln deal for salvage-yard operator IAA has seen dueling activists, wild synergy projections, and a big hit to the buyer’s stock. The deal’s value looks slim unless optimistic promises pan out – the problem is, they include gains investors can get on their own.
Rolls-Royce strategy bind is a problem best shared 23 Feb 2023 Shares in the $13 bln UK engineer surged as it moved on from pandemic losses. Yet it still needs to spend big on new tech to get ready for the energy transition. Given the costs outweigh its scope to do so, Rolls ought to share them via partnerships with big aircraft makers.
Ukraine’s long shadow on business and geopolitics 23 Feb 2023 It’s been 12 months since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how energy markets have changed for good, how defence companies are benefiting, and another potential conflict troubling CEOs and investors.
Capital Calls: World Bank, Bumble, Wood Group 23 Feb 2023 Concise views on global finance: The U.S. picks ex-Mastercard boss Ajay Banga to run the multilateral development bank; while the dating app’s shares are down, private equity owner Blackstone is still in the money; the UK oil services group has turned down three bids from Apollo.
Hong Kong spreads its wings, and its bets 23 Feb 2023 Expats are sizing up their future in the Asian financial centre, but with reservations. No wonder then that the city’s leader John Lee is pitching for more business from mainland China and from places beyond the West. It would put a new spin on Hong Kong’s global aspirations.