EMEA

Ericsson’s recovery looks tough to maintain

24 Jan 2025

The $27 bln telecoms hardware group, and Finnish rival Nokia, have seen share price gains of over 40% in the past year. They have a rebound in US 5G spending to thank. But as this capex cycle winds down, investors may feel their companies lack a sufficiently compelling plan B.

Bank M&A in the new Italy evokes old Italy’s flaws

24 Jan 2025

Monte dei Paschi’s shares fell after it bid 13 bln euros for larger Mediobanca. There’s little logic in combining bailed-out MPS and activities such as wealth management. As with past Italian dealmaking, the benefits – if any – accrue to well-connected insiders or the government.

Puma offers bad mix of sprained ankle and silence

23 Jan 2025

The $5 bln German sportswear group’s shares plunged 20% after a bad fourth quarter, in contrast to Adidas’ strength. Puma’s plan to compete involves selling direct to consumers and a flashy new sports shoe. A key part of investors’ concern is its caginess on what’s going awry.

Dear Chancellor: fiscal sophism will buy some time

23 Jan 2025

Rises in bond yields have slashed UK finance minister Rachel Reeves’ 10 bln pound reserve. That could force her to cut spending, raise taxes or break her own rules. Breakingviews imagines a memo from an enterprising aide with a different, if risky, solution: change one date.

DAX record underlines Germany’s vulnerability

23 Jan 2025

The country’s main stock index has risen 25% in the past year and has bested other European markets since 2020 despite a long recession. That shows the global strength of Germany AG but also its reliance on the US and China just as they are becoming less keen on Teutonic imports.

UK antitrust ouster signals risk as much as growth

22 Jan 2025

The Labour government replaced the Competition and Markets Authority’s chair for insufficient focus on its drive to gee the economy. The CMA’s record is mixed, and regulation elsewhere is in politicians’ sights. But it may mean UK overseers downplay both consumers and stability.

Citi’s pricey refit flags offices’ prime dilemma

22 Jan 2025

The US bank is spending 1 bln pounds to upgrade its tower in London’s Canary Wharf. Stagnating rents and higher vacancies put an onus on value-enhancing refits. The dilemma for owners of large office districts is whether to take on debt and follow suit – or accept a slow decline.

Orsted’s management discount is back

21 Jan 2025

The $16 bln Danish renewables group saw shares slump 15% after new writedowns. CEO Mads Nipper can’t control rising rates, or US disdain for offshore wind. But a valuation below its operating assets implies investors once again don’t rate Orsted’s scope to forecast rising costs.

European mega fund deal swaps scale for complexity

21 Jan 2025

Insurer Generali and French bank BPCE are pooling asset managers. A quirky joint-venture structure, and sceptical Italian shareholder, add risk in a sector where M&A is already tricky. The quid pro quo is a chance to create a 1.9 trln euro champion in a consolidating market.

German election campaign ignores economic ills

21 Jan 2025

Europe’s largest economy shrank by 0.5% in the last two years and may stagnate in 2025. The crisis is due to structural flaws such as a lack of investment, an ageing population and a shrinking industrial base. The government that emerges from February’s poll will need to be bold.

Barclays-Santander UK is a matter of when, and how

20 Jan 2025

The Spanish bank is reviewing its British presence, Reuters reported. Barclays CEO C.S. Venkat is a logical buyer for the unit, probably worth 10 bln pounds or more. The question is whether his buyback-hungry investors like the idea enough to support a deal-enabling rights issue.

Telefónica ouster flags need for a Spain discount

20 Jan 2025

Madrid has used its stake in the $22 bln telco to abruptly replace boss José María Álvarez-Pallete. Spain’s fast growth means it borrows more cheaply than France. But if the government keeps throwing its weight around, domestic companies may warrant a governance markdown.

Davos becomes world’s most exclusive watch party

20 Jan 2025

The annual conflab in the Swiss resort presents itself as a place where business and political leaders solve big problems. This year, most of the 2,750 delegates will instead pay more attention to Donald Trump’s White House return. Even global elites are now passive viewers.

Smiths’ overdue split requires more patience

17 Jan 2025

Activist Engine Capital has called for the breakup of the $7.4 bln British engineering group. Improving financial performance, and a depressed valuation makes a separation plausible. But prising apart the units ranging from metal detectors to cable kit isn’t a simple task.

Glencore’s M&A bind requires bold coal cleanup

17 Jan 2025

The $57 bln miner’s approach to Rio Tinto came to nought, its second thwarted deal in two years. Glencore’s copper unit and low valuation may appeal to partners, but its big dirty fuel business is a downer. Spinning it off isn’t easy, but remains CEO Gary Nagle’s least bad move.

Mega-merger boom threatens a shareholder bloodbath

17 Jan 2025

Lower interest rates and laxer antitrust policy augur a rebound in $10 bln-plus deals, but they often destroy value, a Breakingviews analysis finds. Healthcare and financial CEOs have been especially bad at chunky M&A since 2020, while the energy industry only rates as least bad.

Richemont shine casts fuzzy light on luxury rally

16 Jan 2025

The $94 bln Swiss group’s shares rose 16% as the Cartier owner smashed quarterly sales forecasts. The numbers pushed up rival stocks like LVMH. That seems premature. US consumers may offset weak Chinese spending but most of its competitors lack Richemont’s jewellery focus.

US exceptionalism turns dollar into global problem

16 Jan 2025

The greenback is up 15% against its peers in the past three years. The new administration’s plans for tariffs and tax cuts could make it even stronger than markets expect. Europe, Asia and the UK will have to weather weaker currencies and investor outflows for a while longer.

Bond chaos induces headaches worldwide

16 Jan 2025

Rising yields on long-term US debt, now around 5% despite the Fed’s cuts, are having ripple effects across the globe. Leaders in Britain and beyond may be forced to rethink their policies. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain the potential pain in store.

Politics will test Franco-Swiss $33 bln megamerger

15 Jan 2025

Parisian testing and certification group Bureau Veritas is discussing a tie-up with Geneva-based peer SGS. In theory, a deal in the fragmented sector could bring helpful scale and diversification. But the French government’s 4% stake may make it hard to extract racy cost savings.