European banks have little to lose from rate cuts 25 Apr 2024 Tighter monetary policy boosted revenue at BNP Paribas, Deutsche and Barclays, who now face ECB and BoE loosening. Markets expect some 50 basis points of rate cuts, but that shouldn’t hurt bank income much. Deposits may get cheaper, while old loans keep rolling onto higher rates.
EU Fannie Mae idea is bad answer to good question 25 Apr 2024 A report led by former French central banker Christian Noyer advocates more securitisation to help fund $1 trln of annual green and digital investments. He’s right that bank balance sheets need unclogging. But subsidising the slicing and dicing of mortgages isn’t worth the risk.
Kotak’s IT slap-down points to a system weakness 25 Apr 2024 Shares of the $44 bln bank fell 13% after the regulator barred it from acquiring new customers online following tech failures. Kotak's rich valuation is slipping away. Targeting growth is a smart punishment but the RBI may need to be tougher. Digital weakness appears widespread.
BHP CEO tests his M&A promise in Anglo American 25 Apr 2024 Mike Henry has long sworn off overpaying for deals. A 30% premium for its $37 bln smaller rival looks justifiable. The buyer would then become the world’s largest copper miner and gain better iron ore for green steel. The real trial will come if peers like Rio join the fray.
Meta’s spending habits have strange power to shock 24 Apr 2024 The Instagram owner lost 16%, or $200 bln, of market cap after saying 2024 capex could hit $40 bln, more than flagged earlier. Maybe a debut dividend dazed investors, but boss Mark Zuckerberg’s track record leaves little doubt he’ll run full throttle into a cutthroat AI race.
Silicon Valley models value of noncompete ban 24 Apr 2024 A new FTC rule forbids US companies from stopping employees joining a rival, or starting one. Freeing up opportunities for a fifth of the workforce should boost pay. California’s tech hub also showcases other benefits of labor mobility. Intel, for example, exists because of it.
TikTok’s fate matters only up to a point for Meta 24 Apr 2024 Under a new US law, owner ByteDance is likely to sell the app without its secret sauce, suffer a ban or win a court challenge. Mark Zuckerberg’s social-media colossus should capitalize on the first two scenarios. Even the third allows it to make decent headway against its rival.
How one firm made child’s play of tricky M&A games 24 Apr 2024 Imagine buying a company without tedious negotiations, rival bids or pricey premiums. A Saudi investor pulled it off by snapping up enough shares to gain control of US retailer The Children’s Place. The feat will be hard to replicate, but there’s now a model for deal masterminds.
Time for Kering’s king to consider a step back 24 Apr 2024 François-Henri Pinault, heir to the family fortune, has been at the helm of the 40 bln euro French luxury conglomerate for nearly 20 years. With returns shrinking and as flagship brand Gucci struggles, Kering may benefit from fresh blood – and possibly a new CEO.
Macron wades into a very French debt crisis 24 Apr 2024 Some investors are avoiding the country’s bonds after its budget deficit topped 5% of GDP. Paris is unlikely to require an IMF or European bailout. But President Emmanuel Macron has to bring public finances under control. That will come at a heavy political and economic price.
New Hong Kong bourse CEO needs everyone onside 24 Apr 2024 Anaemic trading activity has halved the market operator’s share price, and first-quarter earnings show it can no longer count on investment income to cushion the blow. There are early signs Bonnie Chan may get support from Beijing to turn things around. Hong Kong can do more too.
Beijing powers up into car wars battleground 24 Apr 2024 The city’s auto show returns, with some 700 exhibitors, for the first time since the pandemic. Foreign brands from Volkswagen to Toyota have to show how they can defend themselves as China’s BYD and new threats like Xiaomi chase market share at home and abroad.
Tesla thumbs a ride on uncertain low-cost future 23 Apr 2024 Elon Musk’s automaker is accelerating a plan to make cheaper electric car models. Yet its recent performance disappointed, and rivals like GM are resurgent. Tesla wants investors to believe the future will be better than the present, and as good as the past. It’s a stretch.
Cruise-ship IPO bets the rich will always float 23 Apr 2024 Viking is seeking an $11 bln valuation in its US listing — a premium price relative to the larger Carnival and Royal Caribbean. As ballast, it offers a focus on high-end customers and less debt than peers. Investors will be reliant on the whims of the few, in more ways than one.
Kate Spade deal veto is lucky dip for trustbusters 23 Apr 2024 US competition cops want to stop Tapestry, owner of the handbag brand, from buying rival Capri. The $8.5 bln merger is a tempting target: well-known products, few political issues, and none of Big Tech’s mighty resources. That offers a chance to road-test novel legal theories.
World economy’s star athlete may run out of puff 23 Apr 2024 The IMF crowned the United States as the champion of global growth at last week's summit. A predicted rise in GDP of 2.7% this year is welcome as Europe and China struggle. But high debt and hard-to-repeat gains in productivity and the workforce will limit American staying power.
Reliance’s efficiency may be New Delhi’s problem 23 Apr 2024 Completing the rollout of its 5G service helped Mukesh Ambani’s $240 bln oil-to-data conglomerate reduce capex by 7%. That’s good for shareholders. But Modi needs companies to boost spending to meet his administration’s deficit reduction goal without compromising on GDP growth.
European airlines’ hot summer belies sector clouds 23 Apr 2024 Jet shortages mean that carriers may be able to charge higher fares this summer, ending years of overcapacity. For stronger players like $25 bln Ryanair, that could mean fatter margins. But it’s likely to be a short-term reprieve for a sector that’s grappling with other costs.
ValueAct’s reputation gamble in Japan pays off 23 Apr 2024 The U.S. fund prefers to chide companies in private but publicly lost its temper last year with Seven & i. Now the $34 bln owner of the 7-Eleven convenience outlet is spinning out its superstores. It vindicates an unusual move for ValueAct, though the financial reward is muted.
China trading-data restrictions are self-defeating 23 Apr 2024 The Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses will cease real-time updates of when overseas investors buy and sell shares. It looks like a ploy to shore up market sentiment. Reversing the decade-long practice, though, will decrease market transparency and undermine shareholder confidence.
Chinese stocks have found a bottom 23 Apr 2024 After a $5 trln crash, there are early signs of healthy buying. In this Exchange podcast, Herald van der Linde, HSBC head of equity strategy, Asia Pacific, unpicks the shifting sentiment of Chinese households and implications for the rest of the region’s capital markets.
Private credit paints a new scream for banks 22 Apr 2024 Lending against wealthy patrons’ art has been dominated by financial institutions. Sotheby’s $700 mln sale of bonds backed by such loans offers non-bank rivals a template to upend the status quo. A rebounding securitization market can feed this machine, if it fits a careful mold.
Swedes’ gaming split is far from a next-level fix 22 Apr 2024 Struggling $3 bln Embracer will divide itself into three discrete companies. Leveraging up the group’s board games arm and splitting out hit-and-miss blockbusters and steadier mobile games makes sense. But it’s unlikely to unlock value akin to the Swedish firm’s glory days.
CVC insiders’ delayed payday is still pretty sweet 22 Apr 2024 The soon-to-list buyout shop will bar employees from selling stakes for three years, and then only let them do so slowly. It helps get IPO investors on board, and suits bosses too. By the time they cash out, CVC should be worth a lot more than its 13 to 15 bln euro float price.
Stakes for India’s election outcome widen 22 Apr 2024 Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and rival Congress party promise to create jobs in their manifestos but differ somewhat on how to achieve the goal and on government spending. As India's bonds are added to global indices, a return to profligacy would be extra painful.
What to do about the EU’s relative decline 22 Apr 2024 The European Union will become marginalised if it continues to shrink compared with other regions. Two former Italian prime ministers, Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi, are coming up with remedies. But anxious leaders may lack the will to drink the necessary medicine.
Buyout barons salivate at Toshiba job cuts 22 Apr 2024 They extract world-beating returns from deals in Japan often without reducing staff because lifetime employment is the norm. Now the private equity-owned conglomerate may cut 5,000 roles. A tight labour market helps, but if layoffs catch on acquirors could both pay and earn more.
Paramount’s sale cries out for intervention 19 Apr 2024 Shari Redstone is mulling a deal for control of the $8 bln media company with unclear upside for other shareholders. The math can just work, but a bid from Apollo would offer a safer payday. The choice is clear, even if independent investors can do nothing but press their case.
Winner’s curse unfairly haunts $7 bln paper deal 19 Apr 2024 UK-based Mondi dropped its pursuit of DS Smith, handing victory to rival US bidder International Paper. The victor’s shares have lagged the sector, suggesting its investors see little value in the deal. If the promised cost savings appear, that view may be too pessimistic.
ESG is ghost at global retailers’ annual feast 19 Apr 2024 LVMH, Amazon and peers gathered in Paris for the industry’s yearly shindig. The growth areas in the $30 trln sector are Shein-style cheap garments and the Middle East. Both jar with retailers’ previous focus on environmental, social and governance factors.