Considered View

U.S. mortgage deals build on shaky foundations

23 September 2020

Public markets are luring two big mortgage firms as low rates and resilient house prices send loan demand to record levels. But 2020’s pandemic-skewed market is wacky, risky and unsustainable. Taking more share from banks could justify investor hype, though is hardly guaranteed.

Angst-ridden end to 2020 is written into options

23 September 2020

As if Covid-19 hadn’t sparked enough market gyrations, the next three months bring U.S. elections, tense UK-EU trade talks, and more. Central bankers are keeping bonds on a tight leash so jitters will be channelled into currencies. That is already showing up in FX option prices.

Corona Capital: LVMH and Macron, Eyewear deals

23 September 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: LVMH has friends in high places; 1-800 Contacts has semi-disposable owners.

Russian tech giant Yandex leaps into superapp race

23 September 2020

As China and the U.S. battle over access for each other’s tech groups, the $23 bln search engine is snapping up online bank Tinkoff for $5.5 bln for a pricey 4 times book value. But it adds the fintech component to CEO Arkady Volozh’s ecosystem of ride-sharing and e-commerce.

UniCredit should hold out for a Tuscan freebie

23 September 2020

Rome wants to wedge ailing Monte Paschi into Italy’s No. 2 bank, whose CEO, Jean Pierre Mustier, has resisted political urges to merge. Holding out for a deal as good, or better, than rival Intesa got in a similar bank rescue makes sense. Consider the financial goodies on offer.

Elon Musk, investors share a rare dose of realism

22 September 2020

The Tesla boss’s plan to slash battery costs and ramp up sales put the stock into a 12% reverse. A three-year time frame jarred, and he oversold the event too. Musk’s pitches usually prompt an acceleration. It’s a welcome sign that CEO and shareholders are toning down some hype.

Xi puts clean energy to good use beyond climate

23 September 2020

China’s president says his country will be carbon-neutral by 2060. The pledge is credible because it’s in Beijing’s interests; Xi may also be trying to warm frigid European negotiators, and defang sceptics. It’s also plausible because China is exporting pollution to poor countries.

M&A 101 will speed end of Tata’s investor fight

23 September 2020

After a long legal spat, the family of ousted chairman Cyrus Mistry is ready to sell its 18% stake in the holding company of Tata group. But a mooted $24 bln price tag double counts the value of India’s top household name. The conglomerate has rare reason to play down its brand.

Elliott mixes activism and a buyout, gets poison

22 September 2020

Paul Singer’s hedge fund amassed a 15% interest in Cubic, then offered to buy it. The transport and defense tech company responded with a poison pill, understandably on this occasion. Shareholders are hoping for a deal. But Elliott may have played its cards in the wrong order.

U.S. WeChat ban adopts China’s Great Firewall

22 September 2020

A U.S. judge gave WeChat a break from an order barring downloads to protect national security. But the White House still wants to push out Chinese tech, echoing Beijing bans of American internet firms. It’s a road map for more censorship and ups the ante on online protectionism.