Germany

Bayer’s sunk boss leaves high water mark

21 Mar 2023

In one of his last acts before bowing to activist pressure, Werner Baumann is pledging the $60 bln drugs-to-seeds company will slash rice’s H2O needs by 25%. Leaving aside his legacy as the architect of the Monsanto deal, his ambition is worth emulating.

Kanye West blunder puts Adidas in play

15 Mar 2023

The $28 bln sportswear maker is battling to restore its image after ditching a lucrative but dubious alliance with the musician. That requires CEO Bjorn Gulden to splurge on marketing, hitting dividends and margins. Adidas’s depressed valuation may soon catch the eye of rivals.

SAP ends pointless M&A roundtrip with Qualtrics

7 Mar 2023

The $150 bln software giant may sell its stake to Silver Lake. A $12 bln valuation implies mediocre returns for SAP, which bought the survey group in 2018. The buyout firm may struggle to put much debt on the target, crimping its profit, but it looks like a more logical owner.

Germany’s electricity headache has an M&A cure

6 Mar 2023

Berlin may spend over 20 bln euros on the local unit of Dutch-owned TenneT. Every country’s power grid needs an overhaul to make it fit for the green transition, but Germany’s need is especially pressing. Still, relatively low debt also makes it easier to take swift action.

Banks’ state shareholders can afford slow selldown

2 Mar 2023

The Belgian and Dutch governments took advantage of a market rally to offload chunks of BNP and ABN. Valuations have risen but are still low relative to lenders’ returns. That means Britain and Germany would be wise to move gradually with their NatWest and Commerzbank holdings.

Ukraine yet to make defence a safe investor haven

20 Feb 2023

Kyiv’s pressing call for weapons to defeat Russia dominated a top security forum in Munich. With defence budgets rising, some investors and banks are tempted to engage more with military hardware firms. For most, however, lethal weapons will remain a no-go investment zone.

KKR can limit the pain of Elliott’s telco blitz

13 Feb 2023

The activist is disrupting the buyout group’s bid for German phone masts firm Vantage Towers. With a 5.6% stake, Paul Singer’s fund is expected to block the delisting until it gets a big payout. But unlike previous Elliott campaigns, KKR has various ways to insulate itself.

Bayer’s new CEO plants seed of future breakup

9 Feb 2023

Bowing to pressure from activist investor Jeff Ubben, the $66 bln drugs-to-seeds maker is replacing embattled boss Werner Baumann. Ditching the architect of the ill-advised Monsanto deal makes sense. Hiring pharma expert Bill Anderson suggests the crop division may be spun off.

Deutsche Bank turnaround victory is really a loss

2 Feb 2023

Technically, CEO Christian Sewing beat an 8% return target that was the centrepiece of his plan to revive the former basket case. Strip out a tax gain, though, and he came up short. It leaves Sewing with a depressingly familiar job: cut costs and hope traders keep raking in cash.

German economic engine is due an overhaul

23 Jan 2023

Slowing global trade hit the country’s exports while higher energy prices boosted imports. The current account surplus shrank last year to 4% of GDP, its lowest level since 2003. As globalisation recedes, Berlin has to reassess the old export-led economic model.

Bayer’s rude health lays better path for breakup

11 Jan 2023

Activists including Jeff Ubben are piling into the $58 bln German seed and drug maker. Its cheap share price, thanks to the dire Monsanto deal, has for years dangled the promise of a lucrative carve-up. Improvements in the pharma unit and a CEO change make it more likely now.

Central bank schism is bad news for bunds

22 Dec 2022

Markets reckon the Federal Reserve will stop hiking rates before the European Central Bank. That has pushed yields on 10-year German bonds closer to those of U.S. Treasuries. The trend will last in 2023, as sticky euro zone prices and a fiscal splurge pressure Berlin’s debt.

Adidas has sneaker each side of ESG turf war

15 Dec 2022

The $24 bln group is probing claims it ignored inappropriate behaviour by Kanye West. Adidas is big in both Europe and the U.S., where investors differ on the “E” of environmental, social and governance issues. It may soon discover how much they diverge on “S” ones, too.

Vodafone picks complex way to shorten to-do list

9 Nov 2022

The 29 bln pound telco is selling up to half an 82% stake in its towers arm to KKR and GIP. Investors will like a delisted Vantage’s scope for more debt, and cuts to Vodafone’s leverage. But the added structural complexity rubs against efforts to remove its valuation discount.

Adidas’s Kanye West bet is still in credit

27 Oct 2022

The 18 bln euro sportswear maker severed ties with the musician over offensive comments. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how the financial benefits to Adidas nevertheless outweighed the costs. That may spur other brands to pursue outspoken stars.

Europe’s industrial mess has protectionist endgame

26 Oct 2022

Manufacturers like Germany’s $42 bln BASF face a toxic brew of high energy prices at home and rising risks in China. That implies a freeze on new investment, and a loss of market share to foreign players. To stop that, European states may ultimately intervene with tariffs.

European banks’ perfect moment will prove fleeting

26 Oct 2022

Rates are rising, traders are busy, and customers are paying their debts. That helpful backdrop helped Barclays, Deutsche and Santander average a punchy 11% return on tangible equity so far in 2022. But with recession looming, and bad-debt buffers looking low, it may not last.

Adidas-Kanye split leaves investors in the money

25 Oct 2022

The $18 bln sportswear group cut ties with the musician, now called Ye, after he made offensive comments. Its sluggish response risks a boycott. But given Yeezy sneakers’ high profit margins in recent years, shareholders may already have won more than they stand to lose.

Green hydrogen revolution risks dying of thirst

5 Oct 2022

Backers make three miscalculations about the gas’ key input, water: that they won’t need much, that it’s cheap, and that desalination is a breeze. Some $700 bln is needed for projects from Australia to Saudi to Europe, but water scarcity means many will be left high and dry.

RWE’s U.S. swoop is investors’ gain, Europe’s loss

3 Oct 2022

Germany’s largest utility is paying $7 bln to make a push in U.S. solar power just as juicy subsidies are set to fuel a clean energy boom. That and a fair price tag should please investors. The move risks depriving Europe of green investments as it fights an energy crisis.