Apple’s Epic fail powers up EU tech oversight cred 11 Mar 2024 The $2.6 trln firm quickly reversed its decision to close ‘Fortnite’ maker Epic Games’ developer account. Frowns from the EU, which is going after Big Tech via fresh laws, look to have played a role. The episode is as much a victory for the bloc’s credibility as it is for Epic.
EU’s $2 bln Apple bite is still more of a bark 4 Mar 2024 Brussels is fining the US giant more than expected for hurting streaming competition. That leaves $2.7 trln Apple open to similar cases. But as with other EU bids to rein in Big Tech, it hikes the cost of doing business more than it shakes up the sector.
Stephen King ghost-writes trustbusting bestseller 27 Feb 2024 The US FTC is suing to block the $25 bln merger of grocers Kroger and Albertsons partly because of perceived harm to union labor. It resembles, oddly enough, a winning DOJ lawsuit over Penguin’s deal to buy Simon & Schuster. The case has a good shot at becoming a horror classic.
Big Tech and AI get too close for comfort 29 Jan 2024 Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and Alphabet alone contributed about a third of the $70 bln raised by data and artificial intelligence startups last year. Some of the investments could turn into revenue generators. Mounting regulatory and financial risks also might offset the benefits.
Spirit deal loss eases anxiety for everyone else 16 Jan 2024 A judge grounded JetBlue’s $4 bln purchase of the ultra-cheap carrier. The defeat avoided a potentially unprecedented intervention by regulators that would have clouded the industry, while affirming antitrust blowback. But Spirit’s shares halved, for good reason.
T-Mobile’s climb to top dog risks winner’s curse 8 Jan 2024 The US telecom’s decade-long rise, sealed by 2020’s Sprint merger, has lapped rivals AT&T and Verizon and triggered an $8 bln payout for backer SoftBank. The tie-up threatened unshakable dominance. But now, newer cable entrants may wrench open the market much as T-Mobile did.
Dead power deal shows limits of M&A futurology 2 Jan 2024 Avangrid and PNM have given up on a $8 bln merger after three years of waiting for regulatory approval. Yet investors repeatedly priced the target as if the tie-up were in the bag. Political twists can easily wrong-foot arbitrageurs. Trouble is, such twists may get more common.
Antitrust legendarily unpredictable despite Epic 12 Dec 2023 A jury ruled against Google in a case brought by the gaming firm while an emboldened FTC blocked Sanofi from snagging a new drug. Yet Pfizer is pushing ahead with a $43 bln deal. Rainmakers can be comforted that regulators’ front offices aren’t a totally impenetrable barrier.
Broadcom can brave China’s sword of Damocles 31 Oct 2023 The chipmaker expects to seal its strategically shaky VMware deal as Beijing’s blessing pends amid escalating geopolitical tension. In 17 months of waiting, however, its rising shares have lifted the purchase price by 16%, to $80 bln. Boss Hock Tan is better off taking the blade.
US oil deals create big fish in vast ocean 30 Oct 2023 Exxon’s $60 bln deal for Pioneer and Chevron’s $53 bln Hess offer will make the giants even bigger. But they will only have 12% of US petroleum production and 5% of global share. Success depends on higher commodity prices. Big Oil may not control as much as it wants.
CFPB opponents gamble with US financial stability 3 Oct 2023 The 12-year-old consumer finance watchdog has amassed powerful enemies, partly because of combative boss Rohit Chopra. But a Supreme Court challenge to its funding threatens other regulators like the Fed too. Making crisis-fighting departments beg Congress for cash is dangerous.
Apple may be poisoned by Google antitrust fallout 27 Sep 2023 Founder Steve Jobs once threatened “thermonuclear war” against his rival for copying the iPhone. Now, more than 15% of Apple's operating profit might be coming from fees paid by the search giant. The big risk is that an unfavorable verdict will taint its rich valuation multiple.
Amazon has a poor man’s monopoly 27 Sep 2023 Trustbusters sued the $1.3 trln retailer over how it restricts merchants on its site. But it has lost ground to rivals like Walmart thanks to bad M&A and retail losses. Amazon gets the worst of two worlds: strong enough to worry regulators, vulnerable enough to concern investors.
DOJ fights uphill battle; Google a losing one 12 Sep 2023 A trial kicked off that pits the search engine’s $1.7 trln owner against the US Department of Justice. Google gleans data freely given and has beaten other rivals. That makes the government’s case tough. By fighting it, though, the tech firm risks exposing its creepy reach.
Microsoft rethink puts big tech M&A back on table 22 Aug 2023 The $2.4 trln tech giant will sell streaming rights to Ubisoft in a bid to get UK approval for its $69 bln Activision deal. The big concession is likely to work. It shows a path for tech giants to buy rivals, while sidelining regulators' fears that M&A will kill nascent markets.
Britain’s trustbuster has a shot at redemption 3 Aug 2023 Three months after saying no, the UK’s antitrust watchdog is giving Microsoft’s $69 bln Activision acquisition a second look. The U-turn is hurting the CMA’s reputation. But if Microsoft could acquire only parts of its quarry, the trustbuster’s blushes may yet be spared.
Activision’s comeback raises $69 bln question 13 Jul 2023 After defeating US trustbusters in court, Microsoft may need more time to seal the deal with UK authorities. The 45% premium struck when the “Call of Duty” maker was reeling looks less generous 18 months later. If negotiations drag, boss Bobby Kotick could push for a sweetener.
History is against UK and Spanish telecoms M&A 12 Jul 2023 Vodafone and Orange have deals worth $40 bln on antitrust agencies’ desks. Europe has only once approved a similar merger without competitive remedies, which involved a tiny Dutch player. The telcos may have to make big concessions, undermining their tie-ups, or accept defeat.
Alphabet threats show up everywhere but its shares 29 Jun 2023 The Google-owner’s valuation has powered ahead as it touts its prowess in artificial intelligence, in spite of mounting menaces. A report questioning Google's video ad sales compounds ongoing antitrust threats, and even AI might not be an unalloyed good.
Green alliance crisis is more than just a US drama 19 Jun 2023 Most insurers have quit their industry’s UN-backed climate body. Sector specifics and fear of US lawsuits partly explain why, but so do European governments focusing on energy security rather than net-zero targets. The same dynamic may affect banks and fund managers.