Central Banks

Swiss central bank gets FX wish three years late

20 April 2018

The franc has weakened to 1.20 against the euro for the first time since the Swiss National Bank ditched its cap on the currency in January 2015. Several factors could explain why. Policymakers are unlikely to care much about the reasons given the moves may help revive inflation.

China’s surprise reserve cut exposes growth angst

17 April 2018

The central bank cut reserve requirements for banks, freeing $200 bln for lending. That backs up other moves to help over-stretched banks amidst a purge on loose credit. The timing, however, suggests Beijing is looking for a cushion if the economy slows, or a trade war escalates.

Watch Singapore rate decision for trade war signal

12 April 2018

As one of the world’s most open economies, the city-state is caught in U.S.-China crossfire. Domestic growth is strong enough to encourage the central bank to tighten policy on Friday. A decision to stay neutral will hint at the damage that rate-setters expect tariffs to inflict.

Fed puts price on simpler rules for big banks

10 April 2018

The central bank wants to use stress-test results to determine how much of a capital buffer the 30 largest U.S. lenders need. It would reward good risk management and streamline the annual exam while maintaining high reserves at the megabanks. That should spell relief all around.

U.S. companies in China prepare to be squeezed

6 April 2018

President Trump is aiming new tariffs at $100 bln of Chinese exports after Beijing threatened duties against U.S. products. American firms have invested over $250 bln into China in the past 25 years. Their assets are now exposed to regulatory harassment and shifting trade flows.

Quest for central bank transparency has limits

5 April 2018

UK rate-setters are debating the merits of more openness, by for example issuing official interest rate forecasts, the Financial Times reports. More information may not mean more insight. After all, good policymakers change their minds when the economic environment does.

New York Fed boss starts with point to prove

3 April 2018

A search billed as highly inclusive ended up picking John Williams, a white, fifty-something insider, to run the key Fed district. He may have been the best candidate, but on top of managing markets and regulating Wall Street he’ll be on the spot on diversity from day one, too.

Wells Fargo is wrong objection to NY Fed candidate

27 March 2018

John Williams, who heads the U.S. central bank’s San Francisco operation, may be close to the top Liberty Street job. Wells sinned on his watch, as Senator Elizabeth Warren has noted, but other watchdogs deserve blame. For anyone looking, there are better arguments against him.

Stars align for Mark Carney to raise rates again

22 March 2018

UK inflation is high enough for the Bank of England boss to further tighten policy in a couple of months but not so high as to hurt consumer demand, especially as wages are picking up. And Brexit poses less of an immediate danger. Politics and economics are both on Carney’s side.

Illicit money is Europe bank stability blind spot

22 March 2018

U.S. authorities arrested the head of a Maltese bank for violating Iran sanctions, prompting calls for it to lose its licence. Similar issues triggered the recent folding of a Latvian bank. Without power to fight financial misconduct, euro zone regulators can’t keep banks safe.

China’s new central banker is a gesture to U.S.

19 March 2018

Vice Governor Yi Gang was a long shot due to prejudice against "sea turtles", or Chinese with overseas experience. But as well as a reformer, Beijing wanted someone who could reassure foreign investors. Yi is both. The financial bureaucracy needs more like him.

Volatility now has a life of its own

15 March 2018

Measures of how much asset prices are expected to gyrate have risen from ultralow levels. But investment strategies that worked a decade ago may not now. Volatility can now lead, not just follow asset prices and old market relationships may break down when turmoil hits.

China’s lithium trouble in Chile hints at more

15 March 2018

A government agency wants to block Tianqi Lithium's bid for a stake in $13 bln rival SQM, arguing the market is too concentrated. China seldom gets pushback in resources M&A. Beijing can expect more potholes as it tightens its grip on ingredients for electric vehicle batteries.

Mario Draghi faces tricky exit from bond buying

8 March 2018

The European Central Bank president has started laying the groundwork to end three years of asset purchases. But there’s a growing danger that his careful preparations will be thrown off course by U.S. protectionism, euro zone politics, or unwelcome market moves.

China’s softening on bad loans looks complacent

7 March 2018

The regulator is easing buffers required for problem loans, according to media reports. This is another incremental move to relieve struggling lenders and borrowers amid a shadow banking squeeze. That’s good for them, but Beijing appears too relaxed about bank balance sheets.

Euro zone reform faces green and red lights

5 March 2018

Germany’s new ruling coalition has cleared the way for reforms to strengthen the single currency area. Yet proposals to backstop banks and governments remain contentious. Italy’s new government adds uncertainty. With the ECB’s firepower waning, delay may prove costly.

China’s economic targets invite promise fatigue

5 March 2018

More money and more credit, less tax and red tape, plus the same old 6.5 pct growth target: Beijing’s key economic conference opened with cautious tweaks to last year's playbook. Chinese promises in Davos that reform will "exceed foreign expectations" look thin already.

Powell buys wiggle room with political savvy

27 February 2018

The new Fed chair deftly handled his first congressional testimony since taking office, giving few indications he is itching to tighten faster. If anything, his political nous and a friendly Republican majority might give the central bank more room to run the U.S. economy hot.

Latvian bank failure raises 8 bln euro question

26 February 2018

That’s the amount foreigners have deposited in the Baltic nation’s lenders. Now ABLV, the third-largest bank, is being wound up following U.S. money-laundering charges. The cost to Latvian taxpayers is limited. Containing the fallout for the overall banking system will be harder.

Latvia exposes euro zone’s money-laundering holes

20 February 2018

The U.S. has accused the country’s third-largest bank of busting North Korean sanctions. This triggered outflows and an ECB payment freeze. Euro members Malta and Cyprus have also faced criticism for poor oversight. The bloc needs to rethink the policing of its weakest links.