Irish finance minister faced mission impossible 10 Jun 2011 Brian Lenihan, who has died at 52, ran Ireland's economy from the onset of the crisis to its bailout. A hasty decision to guarantee the banks in 2008 proved fateful. But Lenihan inherited a badly run and bloated financial sector.
Hillary Clinton wouldn’t suit the World Bank 10 Jun 2011 The U.S. secretary of state may want the top job at the multilateral in 2012, though officially she doesn't. With her background and potential ambitions, that's probably a bad idea. Even if it's just an early trial balloon, it reveals the jockeying for the vacancy at the IMF.
Receding risk appetite reveals new Asian havens 9 Jun 2011 Indonesia and Japan are among those enjoying newfound investor confidence, thanks to shifts in financial health and wealth. Concerns about global growth favour traditional safehavens like Treasuries, Swiss francs and gold but have also signalled some unconventional harbours.
Stock market Sino-phobia could see capital dry up 9 Jun 2011 Deepening concern about accounting at forestry group SinoForest has triggered a rout in Chinese stocks listed abroad. Indiscriminate buying has given way to distrust. If there now comes bad news about China's economy, some Chinese companies could face a severe capital shortage.
Brazil at risk of wasting its boom 9 Jun 2011 It's the flipside of wasting a good crisis. While interest rates are rightly high to ward off inflation, they have brought an overvalued currency. Brazil should be running a big budget surplus and building reserves. But President Rousseff doesn't seem to be making it happen.
IMF snub points to an overheating Turkey in denial 9 Jun 2011 Ankara has told the IMF not to publish in full its latest report on the economy, saying it was written by inexperienced analysts. Turkey is an emerging market success story, but supercharged growth has risks. No doubt that was the IMF's conclusion. The government should listen.
U.S. mortgage market should be much smaller 8 Jun 2011 That matters as regulators and financiers rethink home lending. With a smaller role for the government, sources of funds could fall well short of today's $10.5 trln of outstanding mortgages. But a postcrisis market could be scarcely half as big and therefore easier to fund.
U.S. default deniers could get what they wish for 8 Jun 2011 Fitch is the latest rating firm to warn of the consequences of Uncle Sam delaying a debt service payment. Maybe only the mess that would follow could persuade the Washington brinkmen to back off. At least it would explode the false choice they are presenting.
Expect more cuts in European equities 8 Jun 2011 Credit Suisse's star retail analyst in Europe is among 25 departures in a pullback in equities. BarCap has trimmed too. It follows an expansion driven by rules penalising fixed income. But the equities business in Europe is having a tricky year. Shrinkage elsewhere looks likely.
What’s Greek for default? 8 Jun 2011 The euro zone wants holders of Greek bonds to help solve the country's funding problems while avoiding a default. It will be hard to get accountants, rating agencies, derivatives traders and the European Central Bank to agree. But some opinions count for more than others.
Moody’s growth fear reflects UK private debt woe 8 Jun 2011 Cut spending and kill growth. Or don't cut spending and see the deficit rise. That's Moody's Catch22 warning. But the real cause of low UK growth isn't government spending cuts but hugely greater private ones housing debts.
Berlin takes on the ECB over Greek restructuring 8 Jun 2011 Germany's finance minister says a debt deal must go beyond a soft Viennastyle rollover, and include a substantial contribution from bondholders. This puts him at odds with the European Central Bank. It also doesn't bode well for a swift agreement on Greece's second bailout.
Doggedness earns U.S. Treasury boss grey hairs 8 Jun 2011 Timothy Geithner hasn't gained prominence through his charisma or intellectual flash. Instead, he has shown quieter qualities of persistence and prudence. The guy many thought would be the first of Obama's top economic team to go is now the sole survivor and a senior voice.
Pawlenty hopes unlikely growth will fund tax cuts 7 Jun 2011 The U.S. Republican presidential contender's economic plan hinges on a decade of 5 pct annual GDP expansion. That's a very tall order, though the blueprint would boost growth. But it could get interesting if his assumptions for longterm pensions and healthcare are as ambitious.
Delivering Plan A should be UK’s priority 6 Jun 2011 The British government is being urged to change economic course. The latest attack envisages a green new deal and job creation. But it's imperative that the deficit is cut because that is the best way to keep interest rates low. It's hard. But it's the only way.
Greece mustn’t waste its second chance 6 Jun 2011 Athens will probably receive enough bailout cash to see it through to end2013. But if it veers off track again, as is all too possible, any third chance might come with such extreme conditions that a messy default and a humiliating exit from the euro wouldn't be far away.
European rift widens in leadership vacuum 6 Jun 2011 Whether on vegetables or the euro, on immigration or banks, Europeans seem more divided than ever. Populist parties are gaining ground across the continent. The EU was built on crisis. But this time it lacks leaders with the strong political will to make it progress.
Yemen uncertainty nudges up geopolitical risk 6 Jun 2011 Ali Abdullah Saleh is gone, but the crisis goes on in the al Qaeda hotbed situated next to a strategic oil chokepoint. Saudi Arabia has earned poor returns on the probable billions it has poured into Yemen over the years. Luckily, it can't afford to turn its back.
There’s value in shares despite new risk aversion 3 Jun 2011 Investors pushed yields on 10year U.S. Treasuries below 3 pct. But that makes bonds look expensive, while equities are still cheap enough to compensate for the attendant risks. Herein lies a buying opportunity for those with medium to longterm time horizons.
Greece’s weakest turkeys may vote for Christmas 2 Jun 2011 It should be possible to get nearly half Greece's creditors to roll over loans as part of a Vienna Initiative. That will help close the country's funding gap. But it's the most vulnerable creditors who will be susceptible to pressure, creating further problems down the line.