Scottish independence appeals but has big risks 11 May 2011 Should Scotland choose independence? Oil revenue could cut the fiscal deficit painlessly but prices could fall and force austerity. And a small Scottish economy would be at risk from a big bank, like RBS. A new currency? Tricky. Scotland could stand alone, but it won't be easy.
Draghi should renounce any post-ECB Italian job 11 May 2011 With German backing, the Bank of Italy head is a shooin to be the next boss of Europe's central bank. But if he harbours ambitions to return as Italy's PM, Mario Draghi's impartiality could come into question. That would matter if his country gets dragged into a debt crisis.
The China files. Postscript: Feisty females. 11 May 2011 Hugo Dixon is scammed in the Forbidden City, wowed by a billionaire property developercumHollywood actress and verbally skewered for slaughtering a dumpling. China s onechild policy leaves it with too few women but those there are could be a powerful engine for change.
Rising costs may add M&A splash to paint business 11 May 2011 Prices for raw materials like titanium dioxide are surging while pricing power remains weak amid the U.S. housing slump. Rather than watching profits dry, don't be surprised if the likes of SherwinWilliams, PPG and Buffett's Benjamin Moore make deals to crunch out costs.
China-U.S. too close for comfort on biggest issue 11 May 2011 Their Washington powwow achieved small pledges on tech exports and government procurement. The bigger topic, China suppressing its currency, fell off the agenda. That's because since the last round, the dollar has plunged too. It's those outside the dialogue who feel the pain.
Greek restructuring could put CDS in firing line 11 May 2011 Market fears that EU politicians are conniving to prevent a payout on Greek credit default swaps if it restructures smack of paranoia. But this is a possibility. A restructuring without a payout could be a pain for derivative supporters, but it wouldn't kill sovereign CDS.
Inflation, not slowdown, remains top global risk 11 May 2011 Chinese inflation has moderated very slightly; commodities have lost some of their froth. But record German and Chinese exports are evidence that the global economy is still heating up. Inflation and commodity price spikes remain key risks. Further tightening is needed.
Japan wasting opportunities afforded by crisis 10 May 2011 The March disaster inspired a spirit of unity and sacrifice that could catalyze painful economic reform. Japan must risk its vaunted harmony to overhaul a social contract that has paralyzed it. If politicians continue to squander the moment, Japan faces a long, agonizing decline.
Suffering Japan needs higher taxes, weaker yen 10 May 2011 Consumers and companies in Japan are willing to help reconstruction. The government is too deep in debt not to accept. Raising sales and property taxes could come alongside increased spending and investment. In a deflationary economy, a little more money printing wouldn't hurt.
The China Files. Part 3: Crony capitalism 10 May 2011 China's economy is riddled with vested interests, while free speech is suppressed. This potentially explosive mixture has echoes of Mubarak's Egypt. No wonder the regime is cracking down. But it won't be easy either to maintain the current political model or to reform it.
Chinese stocks could use some foreign pep 10 May 2011 The runaway IPO of Renren shows investors want access to China stocks, yet the country punches well below its weight in global portfolios. It's China that loses from keeping foreigners out. Stocks lag those in other growth markets, and companies are struggling to raise money.
U.S. debt fix needs all the above health plan 9 May 2011 Without a Medicare overhaul, health spending will eventually bankrupt Uncle Sam. A solution ahead of 2012 elections is unlikely. But key pieces for a compromise may already be in place. Give Democrats a decade to revamp the current system. If they fail, privatize it.
The China files. Part 1: How fast can China grow? 9 May 2011 Nowhere near the breakneck speed it has enjoyed in the past three decades. As China and America embark on their latest strategic and economic dialogue, Hugo Dixon argues that economic, environmental and political challenges will slow the country down over the coming decade.
How Greece could avoid triggering a Lehman moment 9 May 2011 Restructuring Greece's debt is desirable and inevitable despite EU insistence at the weekend that this is off the table. But it could also cause mayhem throughout the euro zone. Here's a fourpoint plan to avoid that.
Libya rebel funding will require legal creativity 9 May 2011 The international community has two ways to funnel cash to Libyan rebels. One is to lend against the regime's frozen assets. Another would be to build new pipelines diverting oil to terminals in rebel control. Both ideas are legally fraught but not impossible.
The China files. Part 2: Brave new economic model 9 May 2011 The government wants a new model based on consumption, services and hightech industry. But to get there, Beijing is going to have to ride roughshod over vested interests and loosen its grip on the economy, society and politics. That's not going to be easy.
Oil’s slide below $100 sets record straighter 5 May 2011 Like a slowmotion echo of the flash crash a year ago, Thursday s market plunge reflected not one factor but many. With Fed policy stoking speculation, U.S. data suggesting another slowdown and Europe running at two speeds, more volatile trading may be the logical response.
Commodities’ correction is good for growth 5 May 2011 Bullish investors in commodities are choking on their own bubbly. What's frightened the speculators most is weaker data, especially in the United States. The pullback is welcome and necessary because the excessively high prices are a big obstacle to global recovery.
Asian growth may slip into more sustainable gear 5 May 2011 Oil, inflation, and hot money flows pose growing threats to Asia's economic growth. That's not entirely bad news. Asia needs more equitable and sustainable growth as much as a percentage point less. Looming threats give authorities the opportunity to hit the brakes.
Lisbon can do a bit more to loosen grip on economy 5 May 2011 Portugal's plan to speed up its 5.5 bln euro privatisation programme and eliminate golden shares is welcome. But it could go further and scrap quirky shareholder voting restrictions in companies like EDP.