Much at stake for banks in $5bn China property IPO 20 Aug 2009 Chinese realestate developer Evergrande is getting a second go at flotation, having cut the price since pulling an $8bn IPO last year. A cat s cradle of preIPO loans and shareholdings means the float could offer a neat payback for several investment banks if it gets away.
Markets confused by recovery puzzle 18 Aug 2009 Shares are having a choppy week. That s hardly surprising after such a long rally, and when the signs of global growth remain tentative. Above all, in the midst of revolutionary policy experiments neither theory nor history provides much guidance about what happens next.
Buyout firms race to start over in the east 18 Aug 2009 Foreign private equity firms have finally been allowed to set up Chinese funds for local investors. Perks for early arrivals like Blackstone include a share in government projects, access to prodigious domestic savings and new investors still willing to pay 2and20 fees.
Prawns and risky bonds make for an ugly cocktail 17 Aug 2009 Some bigname hedge funds and an investment bank are bogged down in a dispute after an unusual bet on Indonesian prawn farming went sour. Their pursuit of unconventional returns is laudable. But many of the risks of this peculiar opportunity were visible from the outset.
UK dividends are down but not out 14 Aug 2009 Think the easy money has been made in the stock market? Juicy yields could be the next investment frontier. With the FTSE yielding about 4.4%, more than twice the S&P 500 s 2.1%, there are rich pickings. But investors should be wary of the recession or an oil price decline.
Eurozone enters fragile stabilisation 13 Aug 2009 Recession in Germany and France is over, after their GDP rose slightly in the last quarter. Past recoveries have been vshaped. But that is not likely this time the pain is too global and the financial dislocations are too severe. A recessionary relapse is a greater risk.
Woodstock 40th a grim anniversary for music business 13 Aug 2009 The industry s fiscal circumstances look nothing like they did during the celebrated 1969 festival. The threeday concert was a financial disaster, but a subsequent live album and documentary made it profitable. Rob Cox looks at the economic reversal in today's rock and roll.
Crisis has changed remarkably few minds 12 Aug 2009 When the world financial system was close to the edge, many bankers, economists and politicians called for new thinking. But prejudices are proving strong. It s almost back to the precrisis mindset as far as worries, strategies, policies and even bonuses are concerned.
Fed taps brakes – but must be wary of the traffic 12 Aug 2009 The central bank said it will slow its purchase programmes of Treasuries and agency securities and it expects inflation to remain subdued. But it must be uncharacteristically vigilant on developing stock market and commodity bubbles to avoid repeating the errors of 200206.
When is it time to give up the hedge fund rat race? 12 Aug 2009 For Tim Barakett at Atticus it s at 44 with $1bn in the bank but near the bottom of his game. That s not ideal, but at least it s honest to hand back money when your heart s not in the job. Others make the mistake of hanging on too long and being forced to give up.
Wicked whispers don’t help Rio Tinto – or China 10 Aug 2009 A spurious editorial on a quasistate website alleged Rio had ripped China off to the tune of $100bn. The aim may be to discredit the AngloAustralian miner. But misinformation and confusion over where the state starts and ends do nothing for China s economic relations overseas.
Optimism over US unemployment drop is premature 7 Aug 2009 The stock market s minirally after the report of a 0.1point drop in July unemployment was misguided. The fall was caused by a decline in the labour force, which is not a sign of revival. The fiscal and monetary mess could lead to a halting recovery with ongoing job losses.
Korea-India trade deal has big long-term potential 6 Aug 2009 The free trade agreement between Korea and India represents only a partial market opening. But it may bring major trade growth between the complementary economies. It shows Korea has options beyond its stalled deal with the US and that India remains open to trade expansion.
Personal view: Baltic economies may bounce quicker than most 5 Aug 2009 Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have the world s worst recessions, but all three are taking nasty medicine: cutting private and government costs sharply. Martin Hutchinson argues that this avoidance of Keynesian selfindulgence can bring them a quicker recovery.
US economy could languish at bottom of deep hole 31 Jul 2009 The 1% drop in Q2 GDP makes the 3.7% drop in the last six quarters the worst recession since World War II. Government stimulus helped, but personal savings are still depressed and the federal deficit is huge. Correcting those imbalances could make for a very slow recovery.
Savings drive record emerging market bond volume 28 Jul 2009 Firsthalf issuance was the most ever, belying forecasts earlier this year of widespread capital shortages. Chinese and corporate issuers dominated. Companies in countries with big savings pools did the most business showing the advantages of thrift.
US housing rebounds, but won’t lead recovery 27 Jul 2009 New home sales, existing home sales and housing starts all rose in June. But housing starts are still far below previous cyclical lows, and sales levels are boosted by fiscal and monetary subsidies. These seem to have brought a bottom, but won t end housing s bear market.
Asian recovery could be unfettered by bank woes 23 Jul 2009 The ADB expects emerging east Asia to recover quickly in 2010. That sounds reasonable. Trade has bounced and domestic growth remains strong. The region's manufacturingoriented economies with modest budget deficits may now fare better than the centres of financial meltdown.
Turkey’s bluff pays short-term dividends 23 Jul 2009 Many investors were horrified six months ago when Turkey backed away from talks with the IMF. But the country has averted economic disaster without the fund s help. Still, unemployment is high and exports are weak. The economy will stay vulnerable for some time.
BoE faces QE dilemma 23 Jul 2009 One member of the monetary policy committee has been criticised for suggesting the programme of printing new money may be put on hold. That won t help the government sell gilts but that s hardly the BoE s job. As for QE itself, it doesn t seem to be working.