Credit Suisse carcass feeds many hungry mouths 15 Mar 2024 In the year since it collapsed, competitors have carved up the Swiss bank’s employees and clients. UBS grabbed most of the spoils, but Santander, Deutsche Bank and others have also moved in. Lasting benefits, though, depend on survivors showing restraint when activity picks up.
Bill Winters pulls a poor man’s Jamie Dimon 13 Mar 2024 The frontrunner to succeed StanChart's CEO has abruptly left the bank. JPMorgan's boss is adept at ousting executives, Winters included, but Dimon has earnings and investors on his side. Winters wants for the latter. The lack of a clear heir is now another worry for the board.
Generali has some scope to think bigger on M&A 12 Mar 2024 Under CEO Philippe Donnet, the $38 bln insurer did smallish deals. Targeting big players like $16 bln Aviva, to shrink a gap with rivals, may require clashing top investors to back an equity hike. But Generali could also fund a large buy by running down its chunky capital buffer.
Hostile bidders run into a credibility crunch 11 Mar 2024 Retailer Macy’s and hunting-gear maker Vista Outdoor are resisting uninvited $7 bln and $3 bln buyouts, arguing that the funding is flimsy. Higher interest rates indeed make life harder for suitors. Both proposals, however, look carefully calibrated to reflect the times.
Simmering M&A gumbo lacks essential ingredients 8 Mar 2024 Dealmakers cooked up more than $520 bln of mergers during the first two months of 2024, up 75% from last year’s ultra-sluggish start. Financial and legal advisers gathered in New Orleans are still stewing, however. For them, the recipe calls for some Fed and private equity spice.
Lower rates, office return will ease property pain 7 Mar 2024 The post-pandemic boom in hybrid work is causing trouble for banks that have lent heavily to office developers. But in this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how losses may be limited if central banks bring borrowing costs down and bosses call employees back.
A year on, SVB’s killer is still at large 7 Mar 2024 Twelve months after Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, investors worry more about real estate than flighty depositors. The disjointed system that enabled a crisis remains intact, though, with patchy oversight, incomplete safety nets and ambiguity over who loses if a lender fails.
Virgin Money sale is UK challenger banks’ swansong 7 Mar 2024 Nationwide Building Society is paying a high premium for the embattled lender, but accounting gains and the scope to rival giants like Lloyds Banking Group sweeten the $3.7 bln deal. Still, the demise of the most prominent smaller bank suggests the sector is reverting to form.
NYCB revives an old playbook for the new crisis 6 Mar 2024 Trump-era official Steven Mnuchin is leading a $1 bln infusion in the stricken lender, a move reminiscent of his 2009 IndyMac deal. Tapping private investors saves passing NYCB’s woes to another bank; a cheap price squares the math. It may be a template for future stragglers.
Basel climbdown would make the shadows less scary 6 Mar 2024 Tough new rules on bank capital are likely to be watered down. That would be a victory for lenders like JPMorgan that complain they’re already smothered by safeguards. It’s less good for so-called shadow banks like Blackstone and Apollo that stand to grow fat on their castoffs.
If only banks were more like chemical factories 1 Mar 2024 New York Community Bancorp and paint-materials maker Chemours both ousted their CEOs after discovering flawed internal controls. Economic importance and heavy regulation distinguish the two $3 bln companies. One crisis mostly affects shareholders; the other should worry everyone.
Banks’ hot new trade could burn others, for once 29 Feb 2024 So-called synthetic risk transfers offer a Houdini-like way of loosening capital handcuffs. While best suited to the biggest lenders, it could also help smaller rivals burdened by shaky real-estate bets. The danger to banks is minimal; investors need to read the small print.
LSEG’s big data dividend is still in the cloud 29 Feb 2024 Three years after absorbing information purveyor Refinitiv, CEO David Schwimmer has hit his growth and margin targets. Yet investors still value the $60 bln London Stock Exchange owner like a bourse operator. An upgrade depends on persuading Microsoft users to pay for LSEG data.
UK $4 bln insurance mash-up may yet motor 28 Feb 2024 Direct Line rejected a cash and share offer from its $8 bln Belgian rival Ageas. The target’s depressed share price suggests it has good reason to hold out for more. And synergies related to the two groups’ capital should give Ageas scope to hike its offer.
Klarna IPO now makes less sense than one later 28 Feb 2024 Decent growth and lower losses mean the Swedish buy now, pay later group can justify a $20 bln valuation. Given that’s three times the level of its last cash injection, there’s an argument for a speedy listing. Still, Klarna’s messy governance suggests a 2025 IPO is more logical.
St James’s Place mess may spark a Lloyds reunion 28 Feb 2024 The UK wealth manager’s shares fell 33% after a $539 mln charge to compensate angry clients. Given these payouts may not worsen, St James’s Place looks to be in play. Lloyds Banking Group, which once owned part of SJP and wants to expand in wealth, could be first in the queue.
European bank property buffers rest on two big ifs 28 Feb 2024 Lenders like BNP and ING sit on $1.5 trln of commercial property loans, which look vulnerable to high interest rates. Longer leases give EU players more breathing space than US counterparts. Yet averting a crisis requires a mixture of falling inflation and a revival of offices.
A plot twist threatens Jay Powell’s artful script 27 Feb 2024 Higher borrowing costs are helping achieve the Fed’s 2% inflation target without a recession, but US wages and consumer spending tell a different tale. The upward price pressure augurs elevated interest rates for longer. To ensure a happy ending may require revising the story.
Buffett puts $1 trln grid problem in a bad light 26 Feb 2024 The billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway became one of the biggest US utilities on the basis that providing electricity would generate steady returns. He now says he made a “costly mistake.” Thirteen-digit capital demands from climate change are quickly dimming investment prospects.
Top JPMorgan banker spots value in Citi rotation 26 Feb 2024 Viswas Raghavan is leaving a senior post at the world’s largest investment bank to lead a broader but smaller business for its rival. If he partly narrows the gap between the two, investors should gain. The 57-year-old might even have a shot at succeeding Citi CEO Jane Fraser.