UK has little wiggle room on mortgage aid 21 Jun 2023 Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under pressure to cushion the 1.7 trln pound home loans market from high interest rates. Taxpayer support would spook markets and add to the Bank of England’s inflation headache. Targeted relief from banks would do less damage – but have less impact.
Macron’s neglect is France’s main fiscal problem 25 May 2023 National debt is above 110% of GDP and will keep rising if the government’s rosy forecasts don’t pan out. Austerity isn’t the answer now, but the president doesn’t seem interested in crafting a long-term plan to cut indebtedness. That will hit the economy and future generations.
Debt conundrum gives Italy weak hand in EU talks 18 May 2023 The pandemic and the war have taken the country’s indebtedness off investors’ radar. Yet high interest rates, slower growth and a budget deficit mean Rome will struggle to cut its fiscal burden. That makes it harder for PM Giorgia Meloni to ask for lenient European rules.
Canberra lets energy windfall slip through fingers 10 May 2023 Tweaking an arcane resources tax will bag Australia’s Treasury just $400 mln extra a year. It’s barely a drop of the bumper earnings oil and gas companies drilled from war-stoked commodity prices. A direct levy on outsized profits can better channel cash to the energy transition.
Capital Calls: US GDP, Eli Lilly, EU budget 27 Apr 2023 Concise views on global finance: Consumer spending provided fragile support for the US economy in the first quarter. Meanwhile pharma group Eli Lilly is racing against rising obesity expectations, and the European Commission faces German hurdles to replacing its budget rules.
A flawed but useful economic model for a bleak age 14 Apr 2023 Ideas become fashionable when they meet the needs of the era. John Cochrane’s fiscal theory, which states that governments ultimately determine the level of inflation, fits the bill. Despite its shortcomings, the model may be helpful, says Edward Chancellor.
New EU debt rules have way to avoid past mistakes 4 Apr 2023 The European Union’s old stability pact was a poorly fitting straitjacket, yet recrafting it is politically fraught. The bloc now aims to replace strict diktats with medium-term goals. A successful framework can revive growth. But it will only work if countries follow it.
UK fiscal austerity may not survive next election 15 Mar 2023 Finance minister Jeremy Hunt used 24 bln pounds of budget headroom to boost investment and incentives to work. He also set a trap for the opposition: accept spending cuts after 2024 or be tagged as a high-tax party. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer doesn’t have to take the bait.
UK growth demands better-directed fiscal fireworks 13 Mar 2023 Finance minister Jeremy Hunt’s March 15 budget may feature 30 bln pounds of headroom to ease headaches like workers’ pay. But Britain’s real malaise is a lack of long-term business investment. To keep pace with foreign largesse, Hunt needs to deploy significant tax breaks.
UK bailout has energy bosses walking on eggshells 13 Feb 2023 Power suppliers like Centrica took billions of pounds of government cash to help customers pay high bills. That leaves them open to charges they pocketed gains and handed losses to taxpayers. For an industry intertwined with the state, pay restraint is vital to self-preservation.
India signs up banks for a pre-election campaign 2 Feb 2023 New Delhi is topping up a loan backstop scheme for small firms. The plan will drive $24 bln of funds to a bruised set of borrowers that are also a key voting bloc in polls next year. The plan may cause banks some pain, and it risks entrenching structural economic snarls.
Republican tax fantasy cements ugly fiscal reality 20 Jan 2023 U.S. lawmakers are set to vote on a silly plan to phase out the IRS and impose a 30% sales tax that would balloon the federal deficit. It’s going nowhere, but exposes the twisted economic logic in Washington. Small wonder it’s costing more to insure against Uncle Sam defaulting.
Britain can afford to pay nurses and teachers more 20 Jan 2023 UK public workers want a big raise from the government. An inflation-matching pay rise would cost 18 bln pounds; growing state employees’ salaries in line with the private sector around half that. Downing Street could fund it with a 1p rise in VAT and closing tax reliefs.
China’s property debt red lines need a redraw 11 Jan 2023 The policy Beijing introduced in 2020 to cap developers' leverage is backfiring. The “three red lines” on debt ratios are now aggravating market stress and impairing balance sheets. Officials are considering blurring or moving the lines. They might have to erase them.
Macron’s fiscal torpor will weaken France 29 Dec 2022 The French president is running the only big European economy whose public debt, now at 112% of GDP, is still rising. High government spending helped during the crises but is now pushing up bond yields, stifling growth. Budget neglect will also erode Paris’s influence in the EU.
South Africa growth is derailed, Ramageddon or not 5 Dec 2022 President Cyril Ramaphosa is under pressure to resign over a graft scandal. The country’s strong finances and small exposure to foreign investors will prevent a full-blown crisis. But his economic reforms are over, whether he stays or goes.
UK’s new fiscal plan narrowly navigates recession 17 Nov 2022 As the economy shrinks, new finance chief Jeremy Hunt intends to raise taxes and cut spending. The 55 bln pound package goes some way to rebuilding Britain’s cracked credibility with investors. Delaying the pain by a few years could also help his party’s electoral prospects.
Fiscal “black hole” obsession adds to UK problems 16 Nov 2022 Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government is set to tighten the public finances by about 50 bln pounds, equivalent to 2% of GDP. Yet the case for such a large package is based on dubious logic. If it’s front-loaded and overly reliant on spending cuts, it will also hurt growth.
Italy’s new boss is missing a trick on tax evasion 24 Oct 2022 Public debt at 147% of GDP and a slowing economy limit Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s scope to curb an energy crisis and keep spending promises. Tackling endemic tax evasion would give her more fiscal ammunition. Yet promoting the use of cash and tax amnesties will not help.
Truss’s exit highlights America’s free pass 21 Oct 2022 U.S. fiscal policies, based on tax cuts for the rich and widening budget deficits, have been fairly similar to those of Britain’s ousted prime minister. Only the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency keeps the laws of economics from applying in the United States, too.